FH v Quads - Can you ever get away?

[xPeru]

Following hand was in an MTT, but I've been in similar positions in STTs.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t30 (9 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Hero (t2070)
UTG+1 (t1010)
MP1 (t1190)
MP2 (t5960)
MP3 (t1360)
CO (t2140)
Button (t3415)
SB (t2175)
BB (t1320)

Preflop: Hero is in UTG with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Hero raises to t90</font>, <font color="gray">UTG+1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP1 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP2 folds</font>, <font color="gray">MP3 folds</font>, <font color="gray">CO folds</font>, <font color="gray">Button folds</font>, SB calls t75, <font color="gray">BB folds</font>

Flop: (t210) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t90</font>, SB calls t90

Turn: (t390) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
SB checks, <font color="red">Hero bets t270</font>, SB calls t270

River: (t930) J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
<font color="red">SB bets t1725 (All-in)</font>, Hero calls t1620 (All-in)

Villain: shows [8s 6s] (four of a kind, Eights)

Intuitively I am certain he has quads. I called because I think the probability of him having a Q is greater than the probability of him having an 8. I felt zero surprise at the show down. Looking at the betting, could I have legitimately concluded he had quads and folded, or is this an inevitable situation? First 10 mins of trny, so I have no reliable reads on villain.

[mmorpg]

I am not folding that

I dont like your bet sizing though
bet more on every street

i'd probably raise a bit more preflop as well

[BHokie1]

I go broke everytime

bet more like 2/3 3/4 pot on the flop etc.

[typically]

You're right, the probability is just too low. You win this hand way to many times to let it go.

Definitely bet more on the flop. Preflop, UTG, I'd either limp if I thought a raise was coming, or raise more, to prevent geniuses like this one calling (or get more value when they do).

[Hercules]

Easy fold, what else besides Quads could Villain have?
I would wait until i get Quads by myself...

Seriously, this is a bad beat post. You know that prolly none of us is good enough (stupid enough?!) to laydown KK here and follow a sick read, although i wish i would be so. The possibility of him having QQ here makes it not trivial. But exspecially in a multi you have to go broke here. Villain has a single Q or other crap to often.

So what do you wanna hear OP? IMO you have to bet more on every street, in order to get it in.

[xPeru]

My rationale for the bets: This early I want to see a flop with my Ks. At this table my UTG raise to 90 was a huge bet - it was a complete limp fest. 120 PF would have got no callers from the marginal hands. 90 on Flop because I'm OOP and looking to get raised, in which case I shove over the top. On turn I bet 2/3 the pot, because I think he raises me with an 8 and I can get away.

Early in an MTT I'm happy to take more risks than in an STT to chip up.

This wasn't about the bad beat, 50 a day, who cares? It was about intution v probability. I seem to be developing an A game and a B game. When playing my A game, I think that I can lay down the Ks in this spot. My B game is crying calls etc. I think that this was an easy fold, but I was on my B game so I called. The fact that I think it was an easy fold interests me, because I was fairly sure that very few other 2+2ers would think the same.

2+2 is the reason I have an A game, what I'm now trying to do is play it more often ....

[wiggs73]

We have an entire forum dedicated to analyzing MTT hands. Please post MTT hands there.

The call is fine. I can assure you he has a queen, some random hand like a flush that he thinks he's value shoving, or is bluffing a far greater percentage of the time than he has an 8.

Thread locked.