Got check-raised on a ragged board heads-up.

[EGO]

Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $1/$2
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is MP3 with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
3 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, 4 folds, MP2 calls.

<font color="green">MP2 is a 16/9/2.5 TAG, but I put his range a bit wider than average from a steal position. </font>

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (7.5SB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, MP2 calls.

<font color="green">A nice, safe-looking flop for my overpair. It's tough to hit a board like this. </font>

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.75BB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>...

<font color="green">Hero ____?</font>

[davelin]

More likely a Q with the pre-flop raise than a 9. However I'd probably puss out and call down.

[Befolder]

[ QUOTE ]
More likely a Q with the pre-flop raise than a 9. However I'd probably puss out and call down.

[/ QUOTE ]

[CrMenace]

He's not in steal position, so probably using his typical range. Here are the hands that reasonably c/r this turn:
AA (6)
KK (1)
QQ (3)
AQ (12) -- let's discount this to 2, though as this is a very aggressive way to play AQ
99(1)

So you win 2 times, lose 10 and chop 1 -- that's ~15% of the time. Since you'll be paying 2 to win 8.75, or ~23% of the time, you don't have sufficient odds to call down.

Reads change the odds of AQ a lot, which changes the decision to calldown a lot.

[Befolder]

You can start to raise pretty light from MP2. My range from there is much looser:

66-AA, AKs-A8s, AK-A9, KQs-KJs, QJs. I don't think we're as dead in the water as you think all the time.

[Shillx]

Why can't this be a nine? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Anyway if I wanted to raise I would do it on the river.

[zEBBiE]

*grunch*

If we 3-bet here, I think villain will have a pretty good idea of what we have (AQ, QQ+ probably), and can play the river optimally. We won't get much value out of worse hands, and risk getting capped by better. If we flat call he might bet river again with something like a mid PP, and we can call down without problems.

[bozlax]

[ QUOTE ]
<font color="green">MP2 is a 16/9/2.5 TAG, but I put his range a bit wider than average from a steal position.</font>

[/ QUOTE ]

Hmmm, MP2 isn't really a steal position for a guy that plays this tight. If he's been regularly attempting steals from &lt; CO, that would be a good thing to tell us in your read. Also, PT/PAHUD can show you his "Attempt to Steal" percentage, giving you a better idea of his aggression when folded to preflop. At any rate, I don't think you should widen his range because of a pfr from MP2.

That means that the only hand he could have that has a 9 in it is 99. Could also be A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], AxQx, J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], but probably not AA/QQ. Re-pop, and call down if capped. Bet any non-[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], non-ace river when he checks to you.

[threads13]

[ QUOTE ]
He's not in steal position, so probably using his typical range. Here are the hands that reasonably c/r this turn:
AA (6)
KK (1)
QQ (3)
AQ (12) -- let's discount this to 2, though as this is a very aggressive way to play AQ
99(1)

So you win 2 times, lose 10 and chop 1 -- that's ~15% of the time. Since you'll be paying 2 to win 8.75, or ~23% of the time, you don't have sufficient odds to call down.

Reads change the odds of AQ a lot, which changes the decision to calldown a lot.

[/ QUOTE ]

I really highly doubt that AA-QQ are in this dude's range. You can throw them in, but they have to be severely discounted. I'd throw in KQ as well.

[EGO]

Turn: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (4.75BB, 2 players)
MP2 checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, <font color="#cc0000">Hero 3-bets</font>, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 caps</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (12.75BB, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">MP2 bets</font>, Hero ??