44 CO

[mntndrew]

live 3/6 at the El Dorado in Reno ($1/$2 blinds, raises in increments of $3)

Another line check, as the rest of the table was pretty shocked at what I showed down here. Felt pretty good about how I played this hand though. BN seems like a reasonably solid player.

Hero dealt 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the CO.

5 limpers, Hero limps, BN raises. BB, all limpers call.

Pot: 12 SB

Flop: Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

5 checks. Hero bets, BN raises, folded back to me. Hero calls.

Pot: 8 BB

Turn: A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

Hero checks, BN bets, Hero calls.

River: 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Hero checks, BN checks.

[car ramrod]

don't like the turn call, why didnt you bet the river?

edit: I think I would have raised pf, but limp is ok.

[mntndrew]

I didn't bet the river because I thought his most likely hand was a big ace, likely AQ, and he was aggressive enough to bet it for value and would have to call the check-raise. I didn't think he could put me on a hand that would be helped by the 4 (something with a 5? would've already raised the turn with a flush. I guess he could've had a big pocket pair and bet the ace for a free showdown.)

I called the turn bet for the same reason -- if he has AQ, then I have 9 flush draw outs to go with 3 outs to the straight and the 2 outs to the set. If he has AA/QQ, I still have 12 outs. My worst case scenario is that he has a pair with a spade or an ace with a spade kicker, in which case I still have 5 outs and am getting 9:1.

You're raising pre-flop for set value?

[DVDA4life]

I like to raise pf sometimes here too if your opponents aren't too horrible, the reason being so when I do flop a set the other plays will often call with just overcards or 1 pair hands that I have crushed. If they will call with this trash anyways, raising is not so good.

On the flop here I think you need to just ch fold, nobody is folding a flush draw or a queen (in a live game especially). and you have little chance of improving when you are behind (which is almost always). As played, however, I like your reasoning with the turn call. Villian probably has a queen or ace (or both?) so he will not have a spade very often. I like the river ch raise attempt too

[car ramrod]

[ QUOTE ]
I called the turn bet for the same reason -- if he has AQ, then I have 9 flush draw outs to go with 3 outs to the straight and the 2 outs to the set.

[/ QUOTE ]

yea, I missed the spade outs, but I wouldn't say you have 9 flush outs, you can't put him on exactly AQ, but I would say you will win some % of the time with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[mntndrew]

[ QUOTE ]

On the flop here I think you need to just ch fold, nobody is folding a flush draw or a queen (in a live game especially). and you have little chance of improving when you are behind (which is almost always).

[/ QUOTE ]

Line of thinking (possibly way off): sure, no one is folding a flush draw or a queen here. But wouldn't a queen, or even a flush draw, be quite likely to bet out here? These players would not always check to a pre-flop raiser when they hit the flop. It gets checked to me with only the PF raiser left to act, and I'm thinking there's a good chance that the flop missed everyone -- without hitting a set, I can't imagine a much better flop for 44 -- and that the PF raiser is aggressive enough to raise with just AK/AJ/AT. When that happens, he may actually help me out by raising out the tons of overcards to my pair as well as lone spades that are obviously better than mine for the backdoor flush draw.

Is this just justification for a poor play gone right?

[ QUOTE ]

I wouldn't say you have 9 flush outs, you can't put him on exactly AQ, but I would say you will win some % of the time with a [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].

[/ QUOTE ]

Even without the flush outs, I'm getting 9:1 to draw to the three straight outs and the two set outs unless against a made flush, meaning exactly KsJs, KsTs, JsTs, as I don't think he'd raise any other made flush hands pre-flop. I'm pretty confident in the turn call, because I think I have a small percentage drawing dead, a significant percentage drawing to five outs, and a significant percentage drawing to 12-14 outs.

[Alex424]

PREFLOP

i would seriously consider raising here. You have 5 limpers and raising will give great odds to weak drawing dead draws like overcards if you raise. You give up virtually no +EV by raising and if you hit a set on the flop, players with overcards or a pair will have the odds to draw dead. Plus you may be able to buy the button and then take a free card on the flop to try and make your set.

FLOP

With this many players in i would check fold unless everybody folds to the buttons bet in which case i would raise the button and bet out the turn. It is very rare all these limpers would fold to this flop.

Expect to see a check raise a high percentage of the time here. If an early limper has queen they will check raise with such a multiway pot and a preflop button raiser and with 5 limpers betting out for me is too risky, against fewer players i like it

The way you played calling the flop raise is ok.

TURN

You don't have 9 outs to a flush as you could easily be drawing dead to a higher flush, i would only count them at 4.5 outs plus 2 outs for a set and 3 outs (minus 5spade) for a straight giving you 9.5 (call it 10 for simplicty) giving you odds of 3.6/1 on the turn call.

However, you have to bear in mind also that you may be beat to a made flush and therefore you may be drawing dead.

However with pot odds of 9/1 i believe you have just enough to peel here.

A much better play IMO on the turn is to bet out rather than c/c. It cost you no more and you gain information. You represent the flush and/or an ace. If raised you know you are drawing dead and can safely fold, and you never know villain could fold if he has a pocket pair himself that he raised preflop for value

RIVER

I'd b/c. Villain has led this hand from the start so i would not be too concerned about a flush. The river does look dangerous to a weakish player and unless you have an excellent read i would just play safe and get the bet in. rather than rely on villain to value bet the river I would expect AK more often than not

[James.]

pf whatever, just don't fold. i'm not sold on the flop bet. as it turned out it managed to get HU with the button, but given the drawiness of the board most people in a game like this are calling the 2sb on the flop cause the pot's big. HU i'm c/c the turn given the pot size. on the river i would donk. c/r is fine, but keep in mind your reasoning for not betting it: the innocuous 4 could not have helped your hand(in his mind). if you donk, i think he raises alot anyway since he thinks you are FOS. then we take it to 3town.

[Alex424]

James, do you not believe betting this turn is better than c/c for the reasons i pointed out.

I guess the river is totally player dependent. I think you're probably right against a solid aggresive player to c/r, but against weak i would bet.

[James.]

[ QUOTE ]
James, do you not believe betting this turn is better than c/c for the reasons i pointed out.

[/ QUOTE ]

no. i think we can put a bet in on the turn profitably. one bet. if we bet and get raised we have two problems. if we fold we are throwing away a hand that has too many ways to improve HU over our opponents hand in a big pot. second, if we get raised and call we are really being charged a steep price to draw when behind. plus there is always the chance we get a free card on the turn, which given our holding and the pot size will most always be to our benefit.