Good time for Naked Ace Bluff

luckybacon · #1 02-06-2007, 05:21 PM

I think i was running like 17/13 or so at this table. Villian is a 31/15 and his smaller river bet made me think he could either be bluffing or had a weak pair/two pair hand that he didnt want to play for stacks. Like?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero ($208.15)
MP ($76.75)
CO ($399)
Button ($244.05)
SB ($195)
BB ($304.20)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $8, 2 folds, Button calls $8, 1 fold, BB calls $6.

Flop: ($25) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $18, Button calls $18, BB calls $18.

Turn: ($79) 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $32, BB calls $32, Hero calls $32.

River: ($175) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, Button bets $38, BB folds, Hero raises to $150.15,

gezuz · #2 02-06-2007, 05:38 PM

not versus a 31/15.

Exar_Kun · #3 02-06-2007, 05:42 PM

no,

Call or fold only two options, and I can't see much that you beat with a call...

luckybacon · #4 02-06-2007, 05:44 PM

why would i call here? this is a bluff which is why im pushing

gezuz · #5 02-06-2007, 05:49 PM

what are you representing here? the ace high flush? a set? your line looks exactly like it is.

Moonshine · #6 02-06-2007, 05:49 PM

[ QUOTE ]
not versus a 31/15.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is irrelevant. there are loose players who make bad bets and folds on rivers and 15/12 's who call too much here

OP, in general I dont think you're getting looked up here that much but it's probably enough to make this unprofitable in the long run.

if you had certain reads on his tendencies other than his preflop standards then this could easily be a good play

allaboutmyfetti · #7 02-06-2007, 05:50 PM

[ QUOTE ]
no,

Call or fold only two options

[/ QUOTE ]

eh? since when?

OP - I don't think you have enough FE to make this profitable ... the small river bet seems to me that villian is aching for a call so I think you will see this snap-called a lot. Villian's non-freesd-check seems to me like he is OK with playing for stacks here.

gezuz · #8 02-06-2007, 05:52 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
not versus a 31/15.

[/ QUOTE ]

this is irrelevant. there are loose players who make bad bets and folds on rivers and 15/12 's who call too much here

OP, in general I dont think you're getting looked up here that much but it's probably enough to make this unprofitable in the long run.

if you had certain reads on his tendencies other than his preflop standards then this could easily be a good play

[/ QUOTE ]

so you're saying a player's preflop tendencies will in no way affect their postflop play? I agree that you cannot make a solid read using only preflop numbers, but when the only read given is a player is loose preflop, it isn't a stretch to say he is loose postflop as well. Had the OP said villain is loose preflop but very tight postflop then yes, the 31/15 stat would be irrelevant to the postflop play.

On a sidenote, i appreciate you posting in SSNL, i realize you play much higher.

pokerchap · #9 02-06-2007, 05:57 PM

WHO IS SAYING CALL?

Panthro · #10 02-06-2007, 06:01 PM

tbh, I fold the turn most of the time. You have an obvious draw, and it's hard to extract value OOP.