Bodog Blackjack

[DeezNuts]

At a Super Bowl party yesterday, my buddy told me how he is up $60k in online blackjack at Bodog since the beginning of November. He says his system is predicated on the streakiness of Bodog Blackjack, I recognized it to be a variant of Martingale, where he doubles his bets when he loses(but sometimes stays static, can't remember details). His bets vary from $25-$500, I'm not sure how many hands, but it would have to be around 10k.

My questions are: Is this game(or any version of online blackjack) beatable in any way, shape or form? Is my friend simply setting himself up for a huge fall? Is his upswing(he never bets more than $500/hand) merely the result of some high end variance or is it some sick heater anomaly?

I think I already know the answers and I've been telling him to withdraw, but the slowness of withdrawals these days and his eagerness to "exploit the streakiness of Bodog Blackjack" will probably result in him playing much, much more. I guess if anyone has an anecdotal evidence about swings in online blackjack, that would help($$per hand/$$won/lost). Just trying to gauge how standard this streak is, in terms of variance.

DN

[adanthar]

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He says his system is predicated on the streakiness of Bodog Blackjack, I recognized it to be a variant of Martingale

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I think I already know the answers

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[elliot]

there is no [censored] way someone with this many posts could be this [censored] stupid

[DeezNuts]

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there is no [censored] way someone with this many posts could be this [censored] stupid

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Wow, you are really a huge douche!

I don't deal with online blackjack ever and just wanted an answer about how likely this type of a streak is with ~$100/hand. $60k just seems almost like an anomaly. Super heater? Normal variance? I know the game is completely continuous deck, but just how bad are the odds stacked vs. a player that uses perfect basic strategy?

People that suck and have *s need not respond.

DN

[CCx]

he should try the hood 3000 system

[Insp. Clue!So?]

Unless the game has some programming anomaly (possible but unlikely) your friend has simply been pretty lucky. Being up that much with a $100-unit martingale isn't all that unlikely, and if he keeps playing eventually he will lose it all back.

[csuf_gambl0o0r]

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he should try the hood 3000 system

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haha, how bout "bear-a-cat"?

[CORed]

It's highly unlikely that the game is beatable long term. A Martingale, or other progression where you increase your bet after a loss, trades a high probability of a small win for a low probability of a huge loss. Most likely your friend has been lucky enough not to hit a losing streak long enough to wipe him out. If he keeps playing, he will eventually.

[UATrewqaz]

As others have said, all Martingale does is trade consistent small losses with consistent very small wins with the rare CATESTROPHIC loss.

See this http://www.okthen.com/martingale/

Your friend is simply on one of the "up" peaks, the BIG MEGA downer is coming.

[Bobo Fett]

Nice graphs. I find the last one interesting...I certainly would expect the Martingale to be on the negative side (as well as ANY other betting "system" you could conceive of), I just find it surprising that it wouldn't end up at exactly the same place as flat betting. Given enough iterations, wouldn't any betting system end up in the exact same place as flat betting?