interesting poker tournament theory situation.

[maddbeatz]

I was playing in a $100 + 10 live tourny at the casino yesterday and I made it to the final table. We went to the final table with 10 players with the top 9 being paid. Immediately after the bubble burst with one player exiting, I found myself in the big blind and on a short stack but not the shortest. (no this isnt a blind steal story)
The blinds are 2000/4000 and I have only about $22,000. The UTG player goes all in for about 16,000 and is followed by another all in for 18,000. A few quick folds and a player in late position(who has been playing solidly) and has about 60,000 seems to be in a real dilemma. His stack is about equal with 2 other for the chip lead. After about 2 minutes he calls. So without discussing my cards, if I ask this question to most people, they would say they would need a top 3 hand to play if not AA or KK, which we all know dont play well in multi way pots. Most people would gladly get outta that pot and watch the cards come down and hopefully see the big chipstack in late postion knock the 2 all ins out. That would move me up 2 spots on the payout, but leaving me with the shortest stack in the small blind on a short handed table, not a situation I like to be in. So what do you people think I need for a hand to get into this pot?

Wait!!! there are more factors that have to be considered than just looking at the preceeding action. Lets think of what our players might have. The UTG player is obviously desperate and can be put on any range of hands including any Ace, KQ,KJ KT any pair or even more marginal hands like QT. We cant go into to much thinking of what theyve got, but what about the next player. I was thinking that player must have a medium pair or better or a strong Ace like AK or AQ suited. Now, what did our late position player with the dilemma have. It had to be a strong hand, but certainly not AA or KK because he wasnt the type to Hollywood and act like its a tough decision. I put him on an AK suited or JJ or TT. With his stack I think QQ would still have been an easy call.

Now we have discussed the hands and my thinking is that the late position player has the best hand and has a good chance of knocking the other 2 players out. So now most people surmise that playing anything but a premium hand would be wrong? Ok, is there any more factors to think about? Of course!! the Payout!! What implications to the structure of the payout have on this decision? That is the big part of this theory story that I am missing, the all important math. Im not gonna get into it cause im really not a math problem kinda person. The payout does have implications though and Id love to hear or see what someone who does the math well comes up with.

If the payout was 9th-5th being the same payout and then 4th, 3rd, 2nd, 1st. Would have alot different bearing on our decision than if it was payed out from 9th down to 1st with a gradual increase at every single placing as was the case in this tournament. The payout was

9th $130
8th $170
7th $225
6th $350
5th $500
4th $750
3rd $1100
2nd $1650
1st %2400

Once again, im not gonna get into the math cause It would take me far too long but these are all the factors I can determine that I must look at before making my decision. If youve forgotten, we still havent looked at my cards, or at least I havent told you what they are. So we have a pot consisting of 16k + 18k + 18k + 6k in blinds and I stand to finish anywhere in the money from 9th to 1st. I look down and see a marginal hand of 55.

I dont know how many people would get into that pot with 55 and I want lotsa input on this one because I have never been in that spot and all the sudden I started thinking.

I was thinking about everything I just explained in the previouse essay. I thought about the possible holdings of my 3 other opponents and about the payout. I was actually thinking this out loud as everyone waited. Now one thing you may or may not have thought about is that I had slightly more chips than the two other short stacks and in the event that I played the pot and the late position player won outright(which is very possible considering he must be holding a big hand) that I would get 7th place money regardless of whether the other short stacks had a better hand than me. I seemed to really like this idea as I pondered this dilemma. I thought the late player was in a dilemma, but with so many chips at stake and the possibility of still finishing ahead of the other 2 players, I considered my dilemma a real predicament. I eventually decided to fold. Sigh.... After all that thinking I chose to fold. Some say it should have been an insta muck. I was definately thinking otherwise. What do you all think? So not only did I take this decision very seriously it did end up having a huge impact on the outcome of my tourny.

That is the end of my first post on this site...sorry for being so long. Oh wait! you might wanna know how it all ended.

The UTG player was holding A7 the other short stack was holding AK. The late position player was holding JJ. My reasoning was exactly right!!! Kudos to me on my hand reading. Why couldnt I have listened to my original instinct of getting into the pot with my 55.

The board comes down 7 7 5 A 9

I make a full house and take all the money and vault into the chip lead. Instead, I finished in 8th. So whats the moral of this essay? I dunno. I just need some input on what others think. I guess the only thing I have learned so far for sure is to listen to my gut instincts.

[beenben]

+it's an insta fold
+don't be results oriented

[bluefish]

[ QUOTE ]

The UTG player was holding A7 the other short stack was holding AK. The late position player was holding JJ. My reasoning was exactly right!!! Kudos to me on my hand reading. Why couldnt I have listened to my original instinct of getting into the pot with my 55.

The board comes down 7 7 5 A 9

I make a full house and take all the money and vault into the chip lead. Instead, I finished in 8th. So whats the moral of this essay? I dunno. I just need some input on what others think. I guess the only thing I have learned so far for sure is to listen to my gut instincts.

[/ QUOTE ]
UTG would have won with Sevens full of aces, you woulda had fives full of sevens...
but this is an interesting point and i saw a post on some forums at pocketfives with this same idea in mind...
http://www.pocketfives.com/A3028358-...7DB463553.aspx

[Mclane665]

I understand you have to take chances to win tournaments but not this kind of long shot. Would you call in this situation at any other time in the tournament? I know I wouldnt. You have to win chips and double up to win tournaments but you also have to pick your spots and just survive at times.