Can I just fold this river? 20-40 live.

[Howard Beale]

At CAZ. This game was sometimes loose, sometimes tight.

BB is an old man. Take it from me, if I call somebody old then they are OLD. He is an average player, not unthinking, but sometimes makes plays from out of nowhere that have little chance of success. He also very much likes to slow-play his big hands.

Overall this game was pretty good but I hardly had a hand to play in the 5 hours before this hand came up. I'm sure that he noticed that I hadn't played a hand in 'forever'.

It's folded to me in the HJ. I look left and see that the CO and the BTN are going to fold. I raise with Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Folded to BB who calls.

Flop:

Q [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]2 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB checks, I bet, he calls.

Turn:

3 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

He checks, I bet, he raises and I call.

River is a blank and he bets out. I [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[Ballers83]

You're getting more than 7:1 on the river, I'd call all day here. He might be value betting a worse Q or just making a play with a missed draw.

[jfk]

[ QUOTE ]
You're getting more than 7:1 on the river, I'd call all day here. He might be value betting a worse Q or just making a play with a missed draw.

[/ QUOTE ]

I was set to scoff at this based on stereotype, but 8 to 1 is enough to justify a call. Afterwards you gently tap the table while politely and softly telling him "nice hand" when he shows you A3. Hopefully he plays you straight from here on out so you can safely fold the river next time.

[mongidig]

Could this guy fold to a three bet on the turn if he had a better Queen? I think playing it this way is well worth it if there is any chance he will fold.

[Nate.]

3rdCheckRaise --

We will be fourbet too often to make threebetting attractive.

mingidig --

This is a great idea in some spots, but these types never fold after putting in this much action unless they're very weak.

--Nate

[Howard Beale]

[ QUOTE ]
3rdCheckRaise --

We will be fourbet too often to make threebetting attractive.

mingidig --

This is a great idea in some spots, but these types never fold after putting in this much action unless they're very weak.

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

This hand was a very close decision in my mind. I've seen this fellow make a raise like this with an under-pair to the high card on board as long as it wasn't an Ace or King. The reason that I thought I was beat is that he looked too confident when betting.

You mentioned metagame considerations above and I did have that in mind as well. I hadn't played a hand in a long time and thought it made me look pretty weak/tight. Finally I'm involved and I yield to a little pressure? I can make that fold confidently 20 times in a row because my reads are correct thereby saving myself $800 but after a while my reads won't be correct because some of the other players are going to start to play me differently. You figured my call to be a $25 mistake. That sounds about right and, to me, it's worth it every now and then.

I think this is such a borderline situation that there is really no 'correct' answer. It's the very worthwhile discussion that's going on that I wanted.

[Nate.]

HB --

Looks like a fold to me. All the obvious reasons. Especially given the player pool at CAZ.

You might have to call a little more for the rest of the session.

--Nate

[HOWMANY]

I think this is a good spot to 3bet for a free showdown.

[Nate.]

HOWMANY --

I'd prefer not to. Hero is just crushed way too often. Also, he has to call a fourbet.

jfk --

I'm inclined to give the guy the pot if this is a rare bluff. Remember that most live players, especially those that fit this profile, get aggressive with draws on the flop, not the turn (if they're going to get aggressive with them).

--Nate

[Howard Beale]

[ QUOTE ]
HOWMANY --

I'd prefer not to. Hero is just crushed way too often. Also, he has to call a fourbet.

jfk --

I'm inclined to give the guy the pot if this is a rare bluff. Remember that most live players, especially those that fit this profile, get aggressive with draws on the flop, not the turn (if they're going to get aggressive with them).

--Nate

[/ QUOTE ]

I wasn't about to 3-bet the turn for the reason you mentioned. That and I 'knew' I was beat at that point.

The main reason I posted this hand was to get a sense of the community. This river situation is pretty common and I want to know, generally speaking, how the forum approaches it:

Always call as a matter of course absent a strong read because you'll win often enough or go with your gut and fold which may lead to people taking shots at you more often because they see that you're capable of folding in this spot?

I hope that was clear.