AK pf

[alanbrown]

This is a winner takes all live game. $100 buy in, winner goes to a WPT satellite and then (hopefully) the WPT event.

10 players. 1st hand, no reads. stacks are 5000 apiece.

I get AKs in the CO. blinds are 25/50.

UTG+1 raises to 200. 2 folds. MP2 raises to 600. Folds round to me. What do I do?

This game hasn't happened yet. It's tonight in fact so this situation is hypothetical. The reason I ask is I want to know what people think about re-raising here. Because it's a winner takes all tourney I think perhaps I should be prepared to race in order to accumulate. Should I shove? Is shoving too strong? Should I just call? My instinct is to reraise to 2500 and call an AI if someone goes over the top. And to shove any flop if I get 1 caller who checks to me on the flop. And to call any flop also.

Is this completely maniacal or justified by the tourney format?

[Sparta45]

It's not maniacal, but I don't think it's a great strategy. Remember, you're still a dog to any pair. Re-raising here is not a good move.

I would call or fold. I think a good argument could be made for either of those.

[Hercules]

If you play the hand, then you have to push.
But in your scenario AK is a pretty clear fold. In a 10 handed game UTG+1 is raising at best TT+/AQ...so MP2 is reraising prolly almost only with KK+. So AK is in horrible shape.

I don`t know how good/tight the players are, but normally AK is a standart fold here.

[ace93rd]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play the hand, then you have to push.
But in your scenario AK is a pretty clear fold. In a 10 handed game UTG+1 is raising at best TT+/AQ...so MP2 is reraising prolly almost only with KK+. So AK is in horrible shape.

I don`t know how good/tight the players are, but normally AK is a standart fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Without read(s) your ranges should be lowered...avg player will raise with KQs+, TT+...and re-raise range can be AQs+, JJ+. You still cant push with less than KK here. But considering starting stack are deep and your in position you might want to call and see a flop for the 600. Of course dont do this unless you are very comfortable playin post flop

[alanbrown]

I agree with your re-raise range of AQs+/JJ+ though maybe it's AK+/JJ+. However, they're probably not going to be pushed off their JJ so maybe I should just fold this. Though I'm still not sure.

The reason I raised the question is because it's winner takes all and, to me, that means races mustn't be feared so much. If I can scare JJ away then great. But if I end up against QQ for all my chips with the other player folding then perhaps that should also be embraced. The blinds aren't going to go up particularly rapidly (it will take 4-5 hours to get the winner) but I wonder if this format doesn't favour taking early risks in order to be able to threaten people with a good chip stack if I survive. That is to say that each chip won is worth more than the chip risked to win it. The opposite of Sklansky's diminishing value of chips theory which is predicated on there being more than one person being paid out at the end.

I'm still not sure what I'd do if this situation arose but I was expecting to hear some voices on the side of shoving.

[Mike MacIntosh]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play the hand, then you have to push.


[/ QUOTE ]

This is horrible advice.

We start with 100 BB (which is a great format). We actually get to play some poker. Why in the world are you pushing AI on the first hand w/ 100 BB w/o a read.

I 100% agree with sparta; folding and calling are both close. Re-raising is the worst play of all.

We want to avoid pushing all of our chips in early; on a coin flip situation...not embrace it...

From my point of view:

I have a skill edge in almost every SNG or poker game I play in. The more hands I play, the more of an edge I will gain over my opponents. I am never looking to give my opponents a shot at knocking me out early on; in a 50/50 situation. There will be too many profitable situations later on for me to take advantage of.

However, if you feel that you have no edge, than you should probably be pushing in situations like this.

[ace93rd]

Your right in the sense about that early risks should be taken to accumulate chips...in other words even though this is a single table tourney, you should treat it more as a multi tourney...accumate chips when blinds are low and use them to put pressure on your opponents later on. But in terms of pushin a hand like AK in this situation is bad, if you put him on re-raising range of JJ+, AKs+ as you mentioned then you have to fully "understand" the meaning of what a range means. I agree that if you end up against QQ for all your chips vs your AK the gamble in this winner take all tourney should be taken but you are being optistic in sayin that he will have "exactly" QQ, you are neglacting to ignore the fact that he can have KK or AA...an important part of what makes this push mathematically wrong. Lets ignore AKs since we have this hand. and say he can have JJ,QQ,KK,AA..against JJ,QQ you are 50/50 but against KK,AA...you are ~85/15 to lose. So if you take an avg between both cases you will see that you are like 67/33 to lose....which is not exactly a gamble...in fact you lose 2/3 of the times. and your not getting the same odds from the pot to justify the move.

[alanbrown]

There's a couple of minor errors in your calculations. First, the chance of them having AA/KK is diminished (halved) by the fact that I hold AK. Second, I'm 85:15 against AA, but not against KK. I'm about 70:30 against KK.

So, against JJ+/AK+ I'm actually a 42.5% dog. I agree that this isn't great and I'll bow to the common wisdom on this being a dodgy push. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img] I guess it felt more borderline to me than it does to others.

[DDBeast]

[ QUOTE ]
If you play the hand, then you have to push.
But in your scenario AK is a pretty clear fold. In a 10 handed game UTG+1 is raising at best TT+/AQ...so MP2 is reraising prolly almost only with KK+. So AK is in horrible shape.

I don`t know how good/tight the players are, but normally AK is a standart fold here.

[/ QUOTE ]

these ranges are ridiculous.

[BriPlay]

yup
push or fold; id prob fold and watch
brian