JJ in SB, QQ8 flop

shuinthehouse · #1 02-01-2007, 01:48 PM

UTG is 51/25.5/5.9/2.2 nothing noteworthy
UTG1 is 86/27.6/10.3/1.4 nothing noteworthy
MP2 50/35/1.4/1.0 cold called 3-4 raises already
Btn is 300/40.0/8.4/1.0 will play as bad as T5o in LP and bet or call with bottom pair (sometimes worse) throught the river, I had a great seat.

Full Tilt Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.50/$1
9 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) hero is SB with J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG raises, UTG+1 calls, MP1 folds, MP2 calls, 2 folds, Button calls, hero 3-bets, BB folds, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls, Button caps, hero calls, UTG calls, UTG+1 calls, MP2 calls.

Flop: Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (21SB, 5 players)
hero checks, UTG bets, UTG+1 folds, MP2 raises, Button calls all-in $0.35, hero folds, UTG calls.

I check, thinking I might raise if either MP2 or btn bet as they would bet with any pair or an 8, although not sure that's good as if I'm called or 3 bet by UTG or UTG1 I'm toast. With UTG bet and MP2 raise and btn cold-call this is an easy fold, someones got a queen, right? I feel there is a chance someone is going to call me weak-tight here...

bozlax · #2 02-01-2007, 02:17 PM

Put the number of hands last in the stat-reads...I thought you had a player with a VPIP of 300 for a second.

What queer preflop action. fwiw, I wouldn't 3-bet JJ from SB with a bunch of players cold-calling a 5.9 pfr's raise UTG. Complete and see what the flop looks like. That said, since Button is stacking off, his cold-call/cap means next to nothing.

I'd have led out this flop, since your 3-bet was the last significant preflop aggression, and seen what happened, folding to 2 back and calling one.

The way you played it, MP2's stats make his raise on the flop look not gOOt for your hand (88 or Qx), and UTG's bet isn't a happy thing either (since you don't know he's going to call MP2's raise when it's your turn to act). The pot is enormous, but I don't want to be stuck in the middle of a raising war where it looks like I'm down to 2 outs. Good fold.

Big Folder · #3 02-01-2007, 02:22 PM

A similar hand was posted recently and it looks like the recommendation from a noted poster would apply here. He suggested bet/fold there and i think the same reasons apply here. that thread is here

The board is drawless, so you are hopig that Mp2 is either raising with an 8 or he's a nutbag.

Here's why it might be different though, there are less peope involved and less callers. Also, you should be giving less credibility to UTG's and Mp2's action. Also, button's play looks like an all-in limp/reraise jerk off attempt. I'm not worried about him.

UTG looks pretty aggresive statwise. he might be donking this(since the guy who raised him preflop YOU, just checked, which I don't like) with AK or AJ, TT,99. He could have AQ and slowplaying but you'll find out about that on the turn.

MP2 could have a Q, but he is also very aggressive and could do this with an 8 or another pocket pair. This pot is huge, he could even be bluffing(although the posts in the prior thread seemed to think this was unlikely at low levels)

There is also the problem of having UTG behind you. But you have outs(two jacks and a weak backdoor straight) and this pot is huuuge. I think I peel and reevaluate. I might even reraise. Im looking forward to this discussion.

shuinthehouse · #4 02-01-2007, 04:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Put the number of hands last in the stat-reads...I thought you had a player with a VPIP of 300 for a second.

What queer preflop action. fwiw, I wouldn't 3-bet JJ from SB with a bunch of players cold-calling a 5.9 pfr's raise UTG. Complete and see what the flop looks like. That said, since Button is stacking off, his cold-call/cap means next to nothing.

I'd have led out this flop, since your 3-bet was the last significant preflop aggression, and seen what happened, folding to 2 back and calling one.

The way you played it, MP2's stats make his raise on the flop look not gOOt for your hand (88 or Qx), and UTG's bet isn't a happy thing either (since you don't know he's going to call MP2's raise when it's your turn to act). The pot is enormous, but I don't want to be stuck in the middle of a raising war where it looks like I'm down to 2 outs. Good fold.

[/ QUOTE ]

Boz - wow, I would not have considered smooth-calling PF. I’m thinking UTG has TT+, AQ+, and I’m only behind KK and AA. MP’s cold-calling range probably includes 22+ and KJ+, button’s is probably 22+ and T9+, maybe irrelevant with short stack. So I think I have real good equity PF, why not RR?

On the flop, I don’t think I’m down to 2 outs, I think there’s a good chance I’m down to runner jacks. I could see a bet/fold line, as recommended by Miles in the hand Bigfolder links, but maybe the pot would be big enough to make it worth it.

Absolution · #5 02-01-2007, 05:03 PM

Since the button is short stacked I would go ahead and bet this flop. The hand would play differently from there. As played it's difficult to define your hand because UTG could be betting his AK or AJ and MP2 could be raising any 8 or a pp.

bozlax · #6 02-01-2007, 05:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Boz - wow, I would not have considered smooth-calling PF. I’m thinking UTG has TT+, AQ+, and I’m only behind KK and AA. MP’s cold-calling range probably includes 22+ and KJ+, button’s is probably 22+ and T9+, maybe irrelevant with short stack. So I think I have real good equity PF, why not RR?

[/ QUOTE ]

Unless UTG is completely position-unaware, I make his preflop range tighter than that. You're also behind QQ. You also face an implicit collusion situation where your equity against the one player you can put on a range is not the same as your equity against the combined range of all your opponents (i.e. yeah, UTG could have 99/TT but if the other players are holding aces, kings and queens, you're in equity-jail). Finally your position, both relative to the PFR and absolute, sucks.

[ QUOTE ]
On the flop, I don’t think I’m down to 2 outs, I think there’s a good chance I’m down to runner jacks. I could see a bet/fold line, as recommended by Miles in the hand Bigfolder links, but maybe the pot would be big enough to make it worth it.

[/ QUOTE ]

There are 6 combos of two cards that you're down to runner-runner jacks against, and the preflop action makes me think that only Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] is even worth thinking about, so it's not really worth thinking about. Similarly, QJ is unlikely, and if it's out there you can't make runner jacks regardless. Bet, your implieds for a jack make it worth calling one back but not two.

shuinthehouse · #7 02-01-2007, 05:46 PM

Excellent insight as always Boz, thanks. I never would have imagined being advised to not 3-bang w/ J’s under any circumstances other initial raiser has a PFR of 1.0 over a lot of hands.

Looks like consensus, including miles via other thread, is bet out here. Likely it’s one back to me, UTG1 would have only called given his call of MP2’s raise, MP2 still would have raised. Turn was an A diamonds, so presumably everyone agrees that’s a check/fold, someone has an A or a Q. Reality was UTG check-raised MP2 who called. River was 3 spades, UTG bet and MP2 folded – makes no sense, there was no draw except GS available for him to miss and he was getting 11-1. Btn showed 5’s and UTG1 showed AQ.

bravos1 · #8 02-01-2007, 05:47 PM

I see nothing wrong w/ 3-betting PF here. We only have 51 hands on UTG, so we can not be real sure of what his range is.

ATs+, AJo+, TT+ is not unreasonable.

BTN is stacking off, so who knows? Range? 22-AA, 23-AK [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img]

I lead this flop, but you can not fold to a single raise! You will have the odds to call it even if you only have 2 outs!