relative profitability of flopped hands

[dfan]

I'm trying to write a program that ranks various preflop hands in terms of how well they flop. To do this I need to know how the various flopped hands are ranked in terms of average profitability? This may have been covered somewhere, but if so, I haven't seen it.

I know that a precise answer depends on the player, the table, the game, etc. But in general what hands tend to be most profitable in a cash game? For example, I would strongly suspect that flopping quads with trips on board is not as profitable on average as flopping top set or a straight. Is there empirical data publicaly available that shows this to be true? If not, how would you rank order of the profitability of the following flopped hands in a cash game, based on your experience or PT info?
Hands:
1. Straight Flush
2. Quads a) trips on board b) pair on board
3. Full House a) no trips on board b) trips on board
4. Flush a) Nut b) 2nd Nut c) 3rd Nut or lower
5. Straight, Nut a) w/FD b) w/o FD
6. Straight, 2nd Nut a) w/FD b) w/o FD
7. Straight, Idiot End a) w/FD b) w/o FD
8. Set a) Top b) Mid c) Bot
9. Trips (pair on board)
10. Two Pair (no pair on board) a) Top b) Mid c) Bot
11. Two Pair (pair on board)
12. Overpair to the board a) AA b) KK c) QQ, d) JJ, TT,...
13. Top Pair a) w/15-out FD+SD, b) w/12-out FD+SD, c) w/FD, d) w/8-out SD, e) w/4-out SD, f) w/no draws
14. Middle Pair a) w/15-out FD+SD, b) w/12-out FD+SD, c) w/FD, d) w/8-out SD, e) w/4-out SD, f) w/no draws
15. Bottom Pair a) w/15-out FD+SD, b) w/12-out FD+SD, c) w/FD, d) w/8-out SD, e) w/4-out SD, f) w/no draws
16. Nut Flush Draw a) w/8-out SD, b) w/4-out SD, c) w/no draws
17. Non-nut Flush Draw a) w/8-out SD, b) w/4-out SD, c) w/no draws
18. Straight Draw a) 8-Outs b) 4-Outs

I know -- thats a lot of possibilities to think about. But I hope someone will at least give me their top 5 or top 10 ranking. Is there a consensus on these? Will they include 3a, 5a, 8a, 12a, 16a? How would the ranking differ for say, mid-stage tournament play? Inquiring minds want to know.

[SplawnDarts]

I think you're asking the wrong question. Profitability of a given hand, assuming it's best or drawing to be best, is largely a function of what your OPPONENT has and the line they take. The better they are without beating you, and the more aggressive/bluffy they are with their loosing hands, the happier you are.

So I don't know that your question has meaning. You can stack someone (assuming NL) with middle pair, or with a straight flush. The money's the same, but everyone gets to OHH and AHH over the straight flush.

[dfan]

Thats a silly response. Of course my question has meaning. The fact that you can stack someone with any hand is obvious and irrelevant. The same fallacious argument could be made to argue that J4o is just a good preflop hand as AKs. The question is, what is the approximate ordering of these hands, for AVERAGE profit over time. Opponents have a range of hands over time - some of the hands I listed are more profitable over this range than others. There is a reason why we are a bit happier to see we've flopped a set instead of yet another bottom pair.

Hopefully someone will have a useful answer to contribute.

[The Young Gun]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a silly response. Of course my question has meaning. The fact that you can stack someone with any hand is obvious and irrelevant. The same fallacious argument could be made to argue that J4o is just a good preflop hand as AKs. The question is, what is the approximate ordering of these hands, for AVERAGE profit over time. Opponents have a range of hands over time - some of the hands I listed are more profitable over this range than others. There is a reason why we are a bit happier to see we've flopped a set instead of yet another bottom pair.

Hopefully someone will have a useful answer to contribute.

[/ QUOTE ]

You are correct. However, I hope the bullish tone of that response is due to "variance" because if that was your average response ...

[SplawnDarts]

[ QUOTE ]
Thats a silly response. Of course my question has meaning. The fact that you can stack someone with any hand is obvious and irrelevant. The same fallacious argument could be made to argue that J4o is just a good preflop hand as AKs. The question is, what is the approximate ordering of these hands, for AVERAGE profit over time. Opponents have a range of hands over time - some of the hands I listed are more profitable over this range than others. There is a reason why we are a bit happier to see we've flopped a set instead of yet another bottom pair.

Hopefully someone will have a useful answer to contribute.

[/ QUOTE ]

There is still no useful answer to your question. Averaging profit is meaningless here - at least without some idea of what you're averaging over. Boards? Order of board cards? Opponent types? Days of the week? You mention range of opponents' hands, but how do you want that range weighted? Based on what they'll actually play? Who's "they" for purposes of this averaging?

The answer to your question is "it depends" and isn't going to get any clearer unless you specify a whole bunch of additional information. I think you might be better off asking a different question that does have an answer, but that's just me.

[winterGT]

Sets are probably the most profitable hand in poker because they are virtually undetectable. They also have tp/overpair drawing very thin/dead (as opposed to if you had 2 pair, then tp/overpair still have a bunch of outs) and have the fullhouse redraw vs a flush/straight. It'll also happen 11% of the time if you have a pp.

Something like flopped quads with trip board is usually very profitable but way too rare. Another thing to consider is how big the pot is and how many people are in the pot. AA overpair in a pot that was reraised preflop is a lot hotter than if it's a multiway limped pot with 6 people.

After sets I'd say come flopped straights as most profitable.

[dfan]

Yeah, I meant average over order of cards and days of the week. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[SplawnDarts]

[ QUOTE ]
Yeah, I meant average over order of cards and days of the week. [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

You SHOULD mean that, however. The order that cards on the board appear influences whether or not you get paid off fairly frequently.

Similarly, hands have radically different value in a friday night game compared to a Tuesday morning one. I'll let you figure out why.

See, it still depends [img]/images/graemlins/laugh.gif[/img]

[winterGT]

[ QUOTE ]
You SHOULD mean that, however. The order that cards on the board appear influences whether or not you get paid off fairly frequently.

[/ QUOTE ]
He is talking about flops, so you think there is a difference in payoff if you flop a straight on a 567 or a 657 board or what?

[ QUOTE ]
Similarly, hands have radically different value in a friday night game compared to a Tuesday morning one. I'll let you figure out why.

[/ QUOTE ]
Not really relevant. Sets and straights will be more profitable than a gutshot or bottom pair, no matter what day it is.

Btw I agree there's a ton of depends but these are not it imo.

[dfan]

[ QUOTE ]
Sets are probably the most profitable hand in poker because they are virtually undetectable. They also have tp/overpair drawing very thin/dead (as opposed to if you had 2 pair, then tp/overpair still have a bunch of outs) and have the fullhouse redraw vs a flush/straight. It'll also happen 11% of the time if you have a pp.

Something like flopped quads with trip board is usually very profitable but way too rare. Another thing to consider is how big the pot is and how many people are in the pot. AA overpair in a pot that was reraised preflop is a lot hotter than if it's a multiway limped pot with 6 people.

After sets I'd say come flopped straights as most profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Thanks for your post. That was similar to my thinking- sets because of their stealth factor and straights which are often doubted by opponents and therefore make a lot of money from two pairs and sets. I have no idea of the ordering of these two though. I guess this question will have to be answered with a very large PT type databases.