100NL 6max: Confused with AQ. Forced to make river decision.

OtZman · #1 01-31-2007, 03:27 PM

Played this hand a few days ago, so I can't remember the feeling of the table back then. At the time villain was 28.1/18.8/inf/32. I felt quite confused throughout the entire hand. This is a great example of a situation I have trouble in. Please comment on all streets, the sizes of my bets, and my reasoning.

Prima Poker skin
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.50/$1
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $35.36
Hero: $105.25
CO: $151.69
Button: $198.04
SB: $21.90
BB: $16.50

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $4, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB calls.

AQo pf, I make it $4. Standard.

Flop: 3[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($16, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $8, CO raises to $24.44, 2 folds, Hero calls.

Hmm... 3 callers, a nut flush draw and two over cards. TBH, I'm kind of clueless already. I'm pretty certain I should bet here, not sure how much though. I bet 1/2 mainly to build a pot for the times I make my flush, but who knows, I might have some tiny chance to win right here and now. Should I bet more here? Or just check?

Villain then rasises and I'm getting 3-to-1, so I call. Anyone 3 bet/shove here?

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($64.88, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

Ok, good card for me, but I'm still a bit worried that villain could have a flush/two pair/trips. Therefore I just check planning to call a reasonably sized bet. I mean, if villain has a flush here, we only have about ~16% to improve to a better flush, so against a PSB we should fold here, right?

River: T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($64.88, 2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets $55.85, Hero ???

No chances to improve here, so I hope that my TP2K is enough here. I check hoping that villain will do the same, but I plan to call a reasonably sized bet. Unfortunately, villain bets ~$56 (~86% of the pot), giving me around 121-to-56.

What's your play here?

mooney · #2 01-31-2007, 03:44 PM

I'd bet a little more on the flop. Whatever your standard cont. bet is for this flop (something like 12-16). When villain checks behind turn, it makes me think he a weak made hand or a drawing hand (specifically 67 10J 910 or the K diamonds). I'd expect to see a bluff on this river a lot of the time, especially with you checking both the turn and river, so i make a crying call.

I would probably block this river for ~ 1/3 pot and fold to a raise.

OtZman · #3 01-31-2007, 04:01 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet a little more on the flop. Whatever your standard cont. bet is for this flop (something like 12-16). When villain checks behind turn, it makes me think he a weak made hand or a drawing hand (specifically 67 10J 910 or the K diamonds). I'd expect to see a bluff on this river a lot of the time, especially with you checking both the turn and river, so i make a crying call.

I would probably block this river for ~ 1/3 pot and fold to a raise.

[/ QUOTE ]
Mkay, good points. I never thought that much about the possibilty that villain is bluffing because of my turn and river check. I guess I have to think more about how villain perceives me.

natzucowww · #4 01-31-2007, 04:15 PM

The flop is pretty weak. We're 60/40 against a set/twopair/suited connector, semi-suited connector range and 30/70 dog against a set range. FE is probably pretty small since he's raising this board but he could have tens or jacks with a [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] and fold to flop shove tho that doesn't happen much.

On the turn your equity goes way up against the first range - 80/20, and goes down to 20/80 vs. sets.

67s got there on the river but he's betting the turn if he had the flush and i don't think 67[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]'s is raising that flop. same thing with 9To, i don't think he has that (pf).

i'd probably call the river since you checked twice but folding might be better. i'd push the flop too.

FishSticks · #5 01-31-2007, 04:18 PM

Yah, seems like a lot of times people that semibluff raise their draws on the flop then check behind on the turn will fire out on the river with their busted draw.

You'd tend to think a flopped 2pair/set/babyflush would bomb the turn to protect their hand. This smells fishy, but it's a big river bet to call on a gut feeling.

Blocking the river should take the play away from most players holding a busted flush - but there are guys out there that will raise obvious river blocking bets on principle alone, hehe.

forshure · #6 01-31-2007, 04:23 PM

If were checking here I think we def need to insta call. The better question is whether or not to lead the river. Like the only real hand I think that would make sense given the way villan played is like Td9x, as I dont really see checking behind the turn w/ a made hand stronger then what we have.

OtZman · #7 01-31-2007, 05:37 PM

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On the turn your equity goes way up against the first range - 80/20, and goes down to 20/80 vs. sets.

[/ QUOTE ]
As played, do you suggest I lead turn?

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i'd probably call the river since you checked twice but folding might be better. i'd push the flop too.

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I assume you mean a 3 bet shove on the flop? Should I have bet more in the first place on the flop?

[ QUOTE ]
If were checking here I think we def need to insta call. The better question is whether or not to lead the river. Like the only real hand I think that would make sense given the way villan played is like Td9x, as I dont really see checking behind the turn w/ a made hand stronger then what we have.

[/ QUOTE ]
What about a draw, as FishSticks suggested?

[ QUOTE ]
You'd tend to think a flopped 2pair/set/babyflush would bomb the turn to protect their hand. This smells fishy, but it's a big river bet to call on a gut feeling.

[/ QUOTE ]
I agree with this. The more I think about it, the more likely it feels. Most made hands that are ahead of us probably will bet here.

I seldom make blocking bets, I think. Perhaps I should try it out in this kind of situations.

carnivalhobo · #8 01-31-2007, 05:40 PM

im grunching

closer to pot on the flop, against a guy this agro i probably shove the flop.

i like the turn check, but never fold.

river is a call.

OtZman · #9 01-31-2007, 06:23 PM

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i like the turn check, but never fold.

[/ QUOTE ]
Why is a check good on the turn? Because we might induce a bluff or get a free card to the nuts?

natzucowww · #10 01-31-2007, 06:38 PM

As played, do you suggest I lead turn?

***no b/c if he pushes he probably has a set or a flush and we want to see the river***

I assume you mean a 3 bet shove on the flop? Should I have bet more in the first place on the flop?

***shizzle***

What about a draw, as FishSticks suggested?

***what about it?***