QQ 10NL Stars 6max - 3-bet on flop

udbrky · #1 01-30-2007, 11:24 PM

This was the 3rd hand I had raised pre-flop in a row. MP had raised my first one pretty big and I folded A-J. Then I raised AKs, so it looks like 1) I'm raising light and 2) I'm laying hands down to pressure.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.10 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($6.65)
Button ($15.55)
SB ($11.05)
BB ($11.70)
Hero ($10.45)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
Hero raises to $0.4, MP calls $0.40, 1 fold, SB calls $0.35, 1 fold.

Flop: ($1.30) T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (3 players)
SB bets $0.5, Hero raises to $2, MP raises to $6.25, SB folds, Hero ?????

Semillon · #2 01-31-2007, 12:14 AM

My first post here after lurking for a while...

For me this is a fold, I would be thinking MP has either hit a set or a strong straight/flush draw. The smallish bet from the SB also looks a bit like a blocking bet? Although more likely they have a weak jack or a ten.

A call is out of the question and I dont think a push is a good idea, if the SB is on a flush draw, they have the odds to call.

RollTide77 · #3 01-31-2007, 12:20 AM

I'd let this one go. There's too many draws and your hand isn't likely to improve. Besides, this could be KK or AA or even JT.

Hank Scorpio · #4 01-31-2007, 12:24 AM

Fold. With his initial bet I thought draw for sure, and would have raised, too. When he re-raised that big, though, I'm putting him on a quality hand.

The odds of him having a great draw or a better hand make this a fold IMO

EDIT: Sorry I thought it was only you vs. the small blind. This is an easy fold.

udbrky · #5 01-31-2007, 03:55 PM

I actually put him on JT initially. I'm 40% against JT.

I was getting 2.5:1 with an overpair + gutshot and the image of having raised 3 straight hands.

Does everyone fold here?

RollTide77 · #6 01-31-2007, 04:08 PM

Your pot odds are 1.67:1. You need over 2.5 to 1 pot odds to make the call.

[edit]and that's assuming he doesn't have a K.

udbrky · #7 01-31-2007, 04:19 PM

Where are you getting the 1.67:1?

RAHZero · #8 01-31-2007, 04:41 PM

[ QUOTE ]
Your pot odds are 1.67:1. You need over 2.5 to 1 pot odds to make the call.

[edit]and that's assuming he doesn't have a K.

[/ QUOTE ]

His pot odds are a little under 2.5:1, not 1.67:1, and I don't know what him having a king has to do with anything. Honestly, with the Qc and the gutshot I call this here. We don't have to worry about future betting, Q9 (for the flopped straight) is very unlikely given that we have pocket Qs, and with our pot odds we only need to win this 30% of the time for a call to be +EV. I think he does this with AJ or a draw enough for this to be a +EV call. Even if villain showed you JT, a call would be correct here.

RollTide77 · #9 01-31-2007, 05:24 PM

I calculated wrong the first time. I'm assuming you are already beat and need a K, Q or 9 (10 outs) to beat 2 pair and win assuming he doesn't have KQ. 10 outs is odds of 1.6:1 correct? The pot odds are 8.05 (or 1.3 + .5 + 6.25) / 6.25 which is 1.2:1 right?

udbrky · #10 01-31-2007, 05:37 PM

Pot is ~$10, $4.25 to call his re-raise.

I'm figuring honestly, he has J-T. That's about what I put him on, about 75% sure. If so, I've got 2 Q, 3 9's, 3 8's, and if the turn is a brick, I pick up 3 more outs to a better 2-pair. So I've got 8 outs on the flop, and 11 on the turn if I miss and he doesn't fill up. 47/8 + 46/11 gives me roughly 40% equity in the pot.

I also factored in my image in the last 3 hands, and thought he could have as little as a bare J and thought I'd fold like I did pre-flop 2 hands earlier to a larger raise.

Those were the two factors that made me call - the 2.5:1 odds and I thought he might be bullying me. The hand bothered me for a while, and was wondering if my thought process and analysis are sound.