Show this down or get out? PP30

[DpR]

Party 30.

Fish is UTG +1 and is really bad, 66/7/1 type. MP3 is seemingly solid 20/10/1.4 over a couple hundred hands. I Am on the button with K10o.

Fish and MP limp, I limp and blinds come along. I actually hate K10o and considered folding right there, but that seemed dumb so I came in with it.

Flop is 10,5,4 rainbow. Looks good. MP bets, I rasied, blinds fold, fish calls two cold (can be any two cards here really), MP 3 bets and we all call.

Turn is 2s putting two spades on the board. Fish checks MP bets, I raise, fish call two cold, MP three bets and I fold.....

I cant really put him on much other than 55 here or A10 maybe spades with a ten. I was thinking I Am drawing dead or maybe have 3 outs. I Was getting 14:1 which is a lot, but i was thinking that I just got three bet on the flop and turn and I have top pair 2nd kicker......

Good fold? Call down? Don't raise turn in the first place?

[Fianchetto]

Preflop: I think folding, raising, and limping can all be considered with your hand and position.

With tighter/good players limping in front of me I'd be more inclined to fold this troublesome hand. A fish or two limps, and the blinds are tight, I like a raise. I think your choice is fine too.

My general line is call it down after getting 3-bet on the flop, but I will sometimes pop it again like you did against those players who I feel comfortable folding to a 3-bet from. MP seems like that kind of player.

I do think you made a good laydown, since you are 3-way on the turn MP is less likely to be getting out of line with a hand you beat. Usually you are drawing dead to a set here.

[DpR]

Yes, initially I was thinking call this down after the flop 3 bet. When the turn came, I thought there was a chance I was against Q10 or J10 (since he would have to rasie A10 preflop with only the fish in) so I was thinking it was a good spot for a raise/fold to 3-bet.

EDit: Especially with the fish probasbly willing to call even 2 more with a terrible hand.

[Westley878]

PREFLOP: KTo is a marginal hand at best, and often times its better to fold this hand. Not in this case! You have the button and a really bad player has joined the pot. This means if you hit your hand the likelihood of you getting paid off all the way is very high. So I think folding here would be a very bad play under these conditions. So should you raise or call? Since the solid player called I would refrain from raising and just call as you did, but if the solid player had folded and the blinds were tight, I would raise with this hand. So far I like your play.

FLOP: When the MP bets, raising the flop with your top pair is of course standard, as you have a pretty strong holding for this situation. Once the really bad player coldcalls, and the solid player 3 bets, its time to go into the tank and figure out what this guy has.

First lets note the fact that even though the bad player's cold call means nothing to us, the solid player is still 3 betting this flop oop with two people already committed which is a play that shows a lot of strength. Can the solid player have a hand like AT? I dont think so, he wouldve raised preflop with this hand in this situation. Can he have a hand like 54,104,105. I dont think so since hes tight enough that he would fold all these holdings. Can he have a hand like QT or JT or T9. Judging by his stats he is not that aggressive so I dont see him 3 betting these hands on that flop oop, so I would eliminate those hands. So basically the only hands the solid player can have that would make sense here is 55 and 44 for a flopped set.

Given that I believe the solid player has a set, folding the flop to his 3 bet would be your best play IMO. If you did call the flop, I would fold the turn unimproved. If I had raised the turn like you did, I too would fold to a 3 bet even getting 14-1 since I believe you are drawing dead. I just want to let you know, it is not very often I raise a flop and fold to a 3 bet. In fact off the top of my head, I cant remember the last time I did that, but I think this is the right situation to do just that.

Your hand reminds me of Mason Malmuth's AK hand in Poker Essays 3, page 44. In that hand Mason had AK in the BB and he decided to check it. The flop came down A82r. Mason bet, a solid player from UTG called, and an Lag raised, when the action came back to Mason, Mason 3 bet and then the solid player capped, and mason folded the flop even though he had huge pot odds to atleast see the turn. He folded becuz he deduced that the solid player could not have A8s,A2s,22, or AQ or worse given how the solid player played preflop/flop. He knew the solid player must have a set of 8's, so he folded the flop.

[DpR]

My thinking was similar to your except that I am pretty aggressive so Q10 seemed possible for him since he has to read me for J10 if he is reading me at all.

Intersting fact I just found. My HUD gave me the stats I posted becasue it didnt include an older database of mine. With all stats included this players AF was 2.1. This factor may change your opinion that a fold on the flop is correct. Not sure if it affects the turn decision though (and I didnt have this info at the time, so it is probably meaningless for this discussion).

[Westley878]

[ QUOTE ]
My thinking was similar to your except that I am pretty aggressive so Q10 seemed possible for him since he has to read me for J10 if he is reading me at all.

Intersting fact I just found. My HUD gave me the stats I posted becasue it didnt include an older database of mine. With all stats included this players AF was 2.1. This factor may change your opinion that a fold on the flop is correct. Not sure if it affects the turn decision though (and I didnt have this info at the time, so it is probably meaningless for this discussion).

[/ QUOTE ]
If you think it is possible that the villain can have a hand like QT, then I like your line of calling the flop 3 bet and raise/folding the turn. If the pot were somehow HU on the turn after this flop action, I would just call down, but with the extra player behind you,I think its necessary to raise and protect your hand the times it is good, even though this strategy exposes you to the nasty 3 bet, once 3 bet I would fold getting 14-1 cuz I think this action most likely means a set from the villain. The villian's AF actually being 2.1 makes me think that the line you took on the flop and turn is more likely to be the best line in this situation.

[DpR]

OK, well I am glad that the replies suggest this was not a bad fold since I was pretty solid on it when I made it. Watching the guy drag what was a $1k pot was a bit painful though.

River was 8s, final board 10,5,4,2,8 with three spades. Villian had J,10 diamonds and fish called with A6 (wtf???).. MHWHBG. Tough luck 4 me.