25NL 6max too aggressive??

Fidodell · #1 01-30-2007, 08:02 PM

Having trouble with my drawing hands and think I am overplaying them... how does this one look??

Villian is 20/8/0.9 over 1500 hands...

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
4 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $25
Button: $22.65
hero: $26.65
BB: $26.65

Pre-flop: (4 players) hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
UTG (poster) checks, Button folds, hero calls, BB raises to $1, UTG calls, hero calls.

Flop: 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($3, 3 players)
hero checks, BB bets $3, UTG calls, hero raises to $15, BB raises all-in $25.65, UTG folds, hero calls all-in $10.65.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($34.65, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $57.3)

River: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] ($34.65, 0 player + 2 all-in - Main pot: $57.3)

Results:
Final pot: $34.65
BB showed Qs Qh
hero showed Ks Ts

Thanks

Hank Scorpio · #2 01-30-2007, 08:06 PM

You can only coun't your flush as being good at this point, so you're about 35% to win at this point. With that pot size bet by BB, I don't see him folding, meaning you have 0 folding equity. So I don't think the play is good.

Calling is not good either since he priced you out and you'd be chasing a flush for implied odds OOP.

Fold

carnivalhobo · #3 01-30-2007, 08:07 PM

you have like no FE against this guy with your flop raise, but you are flipping with most of his range, so whatever.

high variance, but OOP you dont really have a choice.

Kharlog · #4 01-30-2007, 08:10 PM

I'd raise this preflop. I think I'd bet/3-bet allin this flop. When you bet there's a chance that yourr opponent will fold. When you 3-bet allin there is a good chance your will fold and if he calls you have almost 50% chance to win. If you check/raise, why don't you check raise to allin? I think it will fold your opponent more often and that's good for you.

Kharlog · #5 01-30-2007, 08:13 PM

Why do you say that hero has no fold equity against this opponent?

Hank Scorpio · #6 01-30-2007, 08:22 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I'd raise this preflop. I think I'd bet/3-bet allin this flop. When you bet there's a chance that yourr opponent will fold. When you 3-bet allin there is a good chance your will fold and if he calls you have almost 50% chance to win. If you check/raise, why don't you check raise to allin? I think it will fold your opponent more often and that's good for you.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is wrong on so many different levels.

Fidodell · #7 01-30-2007, 08:23 PM

Even with UTG calling in between I still don't have odds to at least call the $3 on the flop?

Hank Scorpio · #8 01-30-2007, 08:25 PM

Sorry I didn't see that. Not really if you take into account the effective odds, but I guess I can see the implied odds being worth something in a hand like this against bad players.

It's close, but I'd call.

KurtSF · #9 01-30-2007, 08:26 PM

Call the flop.

You are closing the action getting 3:1 on your call. I think you have 12 good outs (9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]s for second nut flush, and 3 other 9s for top end of a one card straight). You only need 2.8:1 pot odds to make this call +EV right now. You are closing the action, and do not need implied odds to make money on the call.

Reevaluate on the turn. You might have to fold if you miss and there are big bets. CRAI if you hit a 9, b/c if you hit the flush.

Hank Scorpio · #10 01-30-2007, 08:29 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Reevaluate on the turn. You might have to fold if you miss and there are big bets. CRAI if you hit a 9, b/c if you hit the flush.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think it's safe to say that if you miss the flush or straight you're gonna get priced out on the river. The best card you could have hoped for would be a 9.