Is this an "I've got to see it" moment?

[ItzMrFish2U]

After 2 hours of play at a 2/4 loose passive B&M table I 'm in CO. There are no dangerous players at the table.

UTG calls.
UTG + 1 raises. (7 out of 10 on the Loose - Tight scale).
MP call.
I am CO and call with A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB calls.
BB calls.
UTG calls.

Flop (12 SB) A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

SB check. BB check. UTG check. UTG + 1 bet. MP fold. I call.
SB fold. BB call. My read is, I'm either way ahead against a PP or behind against AK, maybe AA. In any case if I bet UTG+1 is definitely calling and possibly raising (tough spot).

Turn (9 BB) Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

BB check. UTG + 1 blatantly grimaces. Pauses and bets.
I'm nearly positive it's a set of queens.

I call.

BB folds.

River (11 BB). Blank.

UTG + 1 bets.

I should..... BTW, flop call? Poor play?

[HoneyBadger]

Well you have top two and it's one bet to you. Hmmm...

And raise the turn.

[Chino987]

3 Bet PF and go from there. You do not want to play AQo against 10 people.

[Little_blue]

the 7 out of 10 loose tight scale is the wrong stat here it you want to nthink about his preflop riasing tendencies and his agression.

Most B&M players are very tight raisers or are very loose raiser. Without a read hear (I assume tight and ) I fold AQ like a shot.

If you want to call you have to rr.

on the flop you "HAVE TO RR"...big pots you protect, this should be instinctive if you don't get it read or re read SSH .

Turn play with a read is difficult...on the flop with the read say Q had flop and you though he had a monter you still should rais to protect...(one or two extras small bets don't matter in big pots)..but the turn depends how good your read is . You at minimum with top 2 in a big pot have to call him down of course.

[ItzMrFish2U]

everyone says call down? I tossed it in and he showed me 3 ladies. Had he not given the grimace and bet I would have played i much more aggressively. To me the grimace --> bet is get out of the way time.

[W. Deranged]

I don't think any of the first three streets are played correctly:

Pre-flop: This is probably a fold against a 7/10 tight live player. If it's not, it's much more likely to be a raise than a call. Three-betting gains initiative, buys the button, and pressures the blinds. This hands will play better 3 ways than 5 ways.

Flop: I like a raise here. This is a situation where you have too much hand to go into a simple "call-down" mode. You need to get more bets into the pot. But I'd rather not do it on the big bet streets, because:

-an opponent with KK might actually find a fold on the big bet streets but call down a flop raise
-You risk paying off much bigger against AA or AK, or forcing yourself to fold possibly live outs

So I think it's worth playing straightforwardly and raising. Folding out the blinds is probably a good thing, as the pot is large and they'll be getting close to sufficient odds to call with pocket pairs, backdoors, etc.

Turn: As played, this turn is a raise. We now lose only to AA (1 combo) and QQ (1 combo). We beat 8 combos of AK and 6 combos of KK. Visual tells are important, but can they really take us from what seems to be at least a 7-1 favorite and make us a dog?

River: As played, this river is a trivially easy call (if not a raise). Folding here would be very poor.

[tewall]

If you're so sure he has a set that you would fold getting 11 to 1, why wouldn't you fold the turn getting 9 to 1?

[ItzMrFish2U]

Thanks for the detailed response. I picked up a lot from that.

[W. Deranged]

Mr. Fish (to me),

No problem. One habit I find endemic in a lot of the live mid-limit players I play against in NYC (many of whom are okay and probably move up from marginally beating low limit games) is the tendency to make WAY too many folds in marginal situations where the numbers just don't merit it. Limit poker, is not really a game of visceral reactions and visual tells on the most fundamental level. In order to fold here, we'd need to convince ourselves that we should fold getting 11-1, in a situation where the numbers suggest we are possibly as much as a 7-1 favorite. In other words, we'd be folding the whole pot, when we would probably be winning about 88% of the time, and only need to pay about 9% of the time. Can "a good read" or a visual tell really overcome an 80% overlay?

Understanding the mathematics of limit poker give you a ton of power, and not just in making decisions whether or not to draw to your gutshot on the turn. Understanding this kind of decision will give you a lot more confidence to take more aggressive lines, to make better folds when they are really merited, and to avoid getting bullied out of pots by aggressive players. Less sophisticated players rely on visual and emotional reactions in live games in order, oftentimes, to make up for a lack of understanding of the theory; they figure "I'm beat, so I'll fold" and don't understand the kinds of risks they are taking.

[HoneyBadger]

[ QUOTE ]
everyone says call down? I tossed it in and he showed me 3 ladies. Had he not given the grimace and bet I would have played i much more aggressively. To me the grimace --> bet is get out of the way time.

[/ QUOTE ]
Good to know. I'll grimace next time I bet my 72o in a big pot.