5/10. QTs. Should we bet this river? If not, why not? If so, why so?

Allday Everyday · #1 01-30-2007, 07:21 AM

5/10 full ring online LHE. No read on villain, other than me not noticing him doing anything out of the ordinary/standard. I am most interested in the river action. I am interested in HU value betting with 4 to a flush on the board and no flush in our hands.

Preflop: Hero is dealt Q [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] in the H/J.
Folds, Hero raises, 3 folds, BB calls.

Flop: K [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

Turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls.

River: T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img].
BB checks, Hero...

Also, what if the BB had Q [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]? Should he have donk-bet the river?

BigBadBabar · #2 01-30-2007, 07:31 AM

i would check behind, because if we bet/fold, i am somewhat uncertain as to what villain would be calling with that we beat, frankly. first to act i can see the clarkmeister but last to act i am happy to check behind. i guess if we bet it he might call with a king or some kind of pocket pair but i think that it is unlikely. it's also somewhat possible that he has the flush and may wait to checkraise us.

HoneyBadger · #3 01-30-2007, 07:55 AM

Hmmm tricky. I'd probably check behind... although there are still a lot of hands that we beat and that might call. I just don't want to b/f with trips. Or having a bluff induced when he holds a low heart. OOP I'd probably bet.

WalkAmongUs · #4 01-30-2007, 09:07 AM

i'd check behind too. i wouldn't be able to fold to a raise w/ no read if i bet.

threads13 · #5 01-30-2007, 09:26 AM

I check behind on this river. I just don't think your villain has many calling hands that we are ahead of.

James. · #6 01-30-2007, 09:43 AM

bet. he'll still call with any pair and i really don't see you getting bluffed very often on a paired board with a 4flush on it. i bet two pair in that spot, so i'll bet trips as well.

Allday Everyday · #7 01-30-2007, 09:46 AM

At the river I think we have a very good hand. Given the HU steal situation, I think there are definately worse hands than ours that will call the river for one bet.

Mathematically, villain probably doesn't have a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. I know this finding is distorted by the fact that he called both flop and turn, however, he checked when the flush draw hit. He should know we probably don't have a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. An induced bluff from villain seems unlikely as we have bet the whole way (appear to him to have something), and now have the option of a free SD.

[ QUOTE ]
i wouldn't be able to fold to a raise w/ no read if i bet.

[/ QUOTE ]
How often would a non-maniacal, non-tilting opponent check-raise this river with a worse hand than ours? I don't think it would be enough for us to call here.

RED_RAIN · #8 01-30-2007, 10:57 AM

I would not call a c/r on the river.

If you bet, I think even if he c/c with a better hand, you may build up some future bets because they won't know if you have a flush or not. Plus, not a horrible value bet anyways for amount of Kings he will call without a heart.

I'd likely bet with no reads.

tewall · #9 01-30-2007, 11:22 AM

[ QUOTE ]
I just don't want to b/f with trips. Or having a bluff induced when he holds a low heart.

[/ QUOTE ]

This is a separate problem. If betting is profitable, it's profitable. It doesn't matter if he might raise. Whether to call a raise becomes another problem to solve. If you are convinced betting is profitable, you should bet.

HoneyBadger · #10 01-30-2007, 12:28 PM

But then you must include the possibility of being raised in your betting profatibility assumption. That is why they pick 55% of calling hands you beat and not 50%.

I don't think you should be blind to future action. It is probably ok to give up a small edge to avoid potentially making a big mistake later. Unless you already include that mistake, and betting is still profitable. Then it doesn't matter.

Anyway, I'm convinced. A bet is probably better. I was just thinking which hands he would check. Certainly not a heart, right?