Bluff a free card raise?

[Levarkin]

Stars $2/$4, 6-max, 6-handed

Villain is loose and rarely raises pre-flop (so I didn't read much into the UTG limp), but plays somewhat aggressively and reasonably post-flop.

I'm in the SB with 10[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

UTG limps, folded to me, I complete, BB checks. Three to the flop for 3 SBs.

Flop (3 SBs): Q[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

I bet, BB folds, UTG raises, I call.

Turn (3.5 BBs) is the 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]: I check, UTG checks it through.

River is the Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]: Hero bets . . .

Painfully standard, including the flop semi-bluff? More broadly, does the free card play on the flop usually mean a draw, or a weaker hand? Is it a busted draw often enough to make the river bet profitable?

[Guruman]

I used to play the flop this way all of the time, but it kept getting raised by other draws buying a free card, so I've been experimenting with something else: checking and reevaulating.

check/bb bet/utg folds - I raise
check/bb check/utg bets - I call
check/bet/call - I raise
check/bet/raise - I puke

this way I can be assured that my free card semibluff wont run into someone else's as much, and I show more strength for the same amount of bets in the appropriate situations. Also, since I have a gutshot as well I don't mind building the pot if both guys want to come along.

River bluff is player dependant, but I make it against unknowns until they prove to me that they can thoughtfully induce this by checking behind with a pair and calling my river donk. Most guys with hands can't resist the turn bet.

[milesdyson]

yeah i think you have to bet the river here. your hand looks exactly like a weak Q from the blinds which now made trips, and his hand looks exactly like a flush draw or an OESD.

[Levarkin]

[ QUOTE ]
I used to play the flop this way all of the time, but it kept getting raised by other draws buying a free card

[/ QUOTE ]

I like your post and your alternatives are intriguing, but does your premise demand them? Is getting raised for a free card so bad? That way, you get the free card, which you need, and you'll probably get paid off handsomely if you hit, assuming you had the better draw. If you and your opponent both miss, you might just be able to successfully bluff on the river. The latter part I'm not so sure about of course, which is why I'm posting.

[milesdyson]

well since the most likely hand he is raising for a free card is a flush draw and since he limped UTG, his draw is likely better than yours. so don't think of getting your own free card as such a benefit, because it often isn't.

[ssmallz]

When pots are small I favor checking the flop as I dont want to get raised here nor do I like having to put 1.5bbs into a hand OOP as you almost have to bet the turn HU. On top of that theres the possibility of getting popped on the turn and having to pay more for your draw.

In your case you have 12 good outs here so I'd check if one opponent bets and other calls b/c you have a nice equity edge. If one bet and the other calls, I'd rather just call and check call the turn. You might even get a few free cards on the turn.

[soah]

Umm, why do you want to avoid putting money in the pot in spots where you have an equity edge? I want to either win the pot without contest if no one hit anything, or I want to build a pot so that my opponents can't get away when I hit. Keeping the pot small and then bombing it when (if?) you hit is a sure way to minimizes your EV.

[ssmallz]

[ QUOTE ]
Umm, why do you want to avoid putting money in the pot in spots where you have an equity edge? I want to either win the pot without contest if no one hit anything, or I want to build a pot so that my opponents can't get away when I hit. Keeping the pot small and then bombing it when (if?) you hit is a sure way to minimizes your EV.

[/ QUOTE ]

W/a J and Q on the board, its likely that someone hit the flop and we're not winning this pot w/a flop bet. I don't think we have the best hand either as somoen likley has a pair or at least K high.

To win this pot unimproved it would cost us at least 1.5 sbs and there's the distinct possibilty of getting raised on the flop or turn and playing the rest of the hand OOP. This is really not a position we want to be in w/T high + a great draw.

If we were in position, I would take your line and bet the flop but since we dont know how the 2 people behind us will act, I'm gonna choose to check and wait hopeing to c/r the whole field or check call to keep bb in the hand.

I'm not sure how much of an equity edge we actually have there. I can say we have 12 outs and against 2 opponents we should be pushign that edge. HU however, I think we are a dog unless we improve so lets try not putting all that money into the pot untill we hit our hand.

As for our opponent folding when we hit, he's a loose passive, they gererally will look us up for the hell of it when they any pair in case we're bluffing on a scar card. I don't think he folds the turn or river here and we might even get a c/r in there somewhere.