Common situation - can we call to set mine?

[AshleyC]

Typical situation:

I've been playing at 19/17, but very aggressively in position. My attempt to steal blinds is 30.82.

SB is 17/12.

x is at seat 0 with $32.35.
y is at seat 1 with $34.55.
hero is at seat 2 with $56.40.
z is at seat 3 with $29.70 (sitting out).
a is at seat 4 with $42.55 (sitting out).
villan is at seat 5 with $50.00
The button is at seat 2.

villan posts the small blind of $.25.
x posts the big blind of $.50.

Dealt to Hero 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Pre-flop:

3 fold folds. Hero raises to $1.75.
SB re-raises to $5.75. BB folds.

Hero?

Am I wasting money calling here to set mine?

Advantages of calling:

<ul type="square">
We have position

If we hit a set we can win a big pot - implied odds

Meta-game - I don't want the blinds to think that I raise the button light and I don't want them to think that 3-betting me 'works'.[/list]
Disadvantages:

<ul type="square">
We are 8.5/1 to hit a set

Villan won't always stack off when we hit

We may be tempted to put in more money on rag flops (ie 6 high).[/list]

[Miko]

I think the only question has to be: Is he aware of BSB-play?

If the anwser is no, fold. Otherwise I allways call.

[KurtSF]

I think this is a judgment call. Very read dependent (will they stack off?). I like variance, so I call against a complete unknown.

What's BSB play?

[BoozeHound]

You cannot call here for set value. you can call planning to raise/float ragged flops if villain is capable of 3-betting light (which villain does with high cards often, high pair often, mid-low pp rarely but some villains do this more).

if villain is the type to shut down on turn when he misses, insta call.

[Miko]

[ QUOTE ]
I think this is a judgment call. Very read dependent (will they stack off?). I like variance, so I call against a complete unknown.

What's BSB play?

[/ QUOTE ]

Button, Small Blind and Big Blind Play © Phil Gordon's little green book.

[pokahpaul]

i would guess that at these stakes where level 1 thinking is most prevalent that this is a fold. he seems to be representing an overpair that beats yours or definitely overcards w/ his stats. and if rags hit, you may have to invest a little more into the pot.

[_TKO_]

[ QUOTE ]
(will they stack off?)

[/ QUOTE ]

The 100BB question...

With position and a possibly limited hand range for your villian, you should plan to steal postflop at least some percentage of the time to make this play profitable.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
You cannot call here for set value.

[/ QUOTE ]

O RLY?

You're calling $4 with $7.5 in the pot and $44 in the villain's stack. If he will stack off 100% of the time when you hit your set, you are getting proper implied odds.

The question is how far he is likely to continue with the hand and how likely he is to give you all his chips, and that's a lot harder to tell than just seeing that 8:1 implied odds are there.

[KurtSF]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
(will they stack off?)

[/ QUOTE ]

The 100BB question...

With position and a possibly limited hand range for your villian, you should plan to steal postflop at least some percentage of the time to make this play profitable.

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. I play back after missing the flop about 1 in 10 here, read dependant. This guy (17/12) is probably 3-jacking it with the goods, so I would be less inclined to make a move on him if I miss the flop.

$0.02

[AshleyC]

[ QUOTE ]

Meta-game - I don't want the blinds to think that I raise the button light and I don't want them to think that 3-betting me 'works'.

[/ QUOTE ]

How important is this point?