Does screen time affect popularity?

[mynamewastaken]

It has long been assumed that the contestants who are the producers' favorites have an inherent advantage over those who, while perhaps more talented, are for whatever reason perceived as less marketable in the eyes of producers. An example would be Elliott Yamin from last year, who was arguably the most talented contestant in the top 3, yet never had a chance due to the immense popularity of Katherine and Taylor.

But what are the key indicators for being a producers' favorite? To me it seems that the judges' comments and the amount of screen time they are given (to develop backstory, to get more stage time, to have interviews with Seacrest, etc). While screen time doesn't tell the whole story, I think it goes a long way towards showing who is a contender, if for no other reason than that more screen time means more time to develop a fan base (and even negative fan comments can be a good thing, see Kellie Pickler)

In the FAQ I have compiled all the contestants shown thusfar and the screen time they have been allotted. You'll notice Sean Michel (Castro) has had very little screen time. However, there is a ton of buzz about him because his look was so distinctive. I would not, however, be shocked if he never made it anywhere since the brevity of his audition suggests to me that the judges don't hold him in high regard.

Same goes for Dani McCulloch (1:48) and even Sarah Krueger (1:32).

I would expect someone like Sarah Burgess to make it through to the final 24, simply because she was given so much air time (nearly 5 minutes).

I could be completely off base here. Generally the shorter auditions were the no-gimmick-but-good-singer ones (Krueger, Steingas) whereas the longer ones had some sort of backstory, or maybe they went to their hometown to shoot the contestants at their dreary, pointless jobs or whatever.

Thing is, by the time they make it to the Hollywood round, the judges have probably already decided on AT LEAST 16 of the final 24. I can't remember specifics but there were people who made it through despite forgetting their lyrics. Sundance Head WILL be in the top 24, you can count on that. Unless he starts popping mescaline before the show (and even then...) he will not be sent home by the producers.

That was a lot of words to say not much of anything. Any comments on whether this could be a relevant angle?

[pete fabrizio]

[ QUOTE ]
It has long been assumed that the contestants who are the producers' favorites have an inherent advantage over those who, while perhaps more talented, are for whatever reason perceived as less marketable in the eyes of producers. An example would be Elliott Yamin from last year, who was arguably the most talented contestant in the top 3, yet never had a chance due to the immense popularity of Katherine and Taylor.

But what are the key indicators for being a producers' favorite? To me it seems that the judges' comments and the amount of screen time they are given (to develop backstory, to get more stage time, to have interviews with Seacrest, etc). While screen time doesn't tell the whole story, I think it goes a long way towards showing who is a contender, if for no other reason than that more screen time means more time to develop a fan base (and even negative fan comments can be a good thing, see Kellie Pickler)

In the FAQ I have compiled all the contestants shown thusfar and the screen time they have been allotted. You'll notice Sean Michel (Castro) has had very little screen time. However, there is a ton of buzz about him because his look was so distinctive. I would not, however, be shocked if he never made it anywhere since the brevity of his audition suggests to me that the judges don't hold him in high regard.

Same goes for Dani McCulloch (1:48) and even Sarah Krueger (1:32).

I would expect someone like Sarah Burgess to make it through to the final 24, simply because she was given so much air time (nearly 5 minutes).

I could be completely off base here. Generally the shorter auditions were the no-gimmick-but-good-singer ones (Krueger, Steingas) whereas the longer ones had some sort of backstory, or maybe they went to their hometown to shoot the contestants at their dreary, pointless jobs or whatever.

Thing is, by the time they make it to the Hollywood round, the judges have probably already decided on AT LEAST 16 of the final 24. I can't remember specifics but there were people who made it through despite forgetting their lyrics. Sundance Head WILL be in the top 24, you can count on that. Unless he starts popping mescaline before the show (and even then...) he will not be sent home by the producers.

That was a lot of words to say not much of anything. Any comments on whether this could be a relevant angle?

[/ QUOTE ]

I think there's not much correlation, they're just going for the best drama. In past seasons, of the people who go to the hollywood round, the chances of them making the top 24 have been more or less the same whether they were shown on t.v. or not. And this season, if the spoilers out there are right, the best correlation I can tell is that the people who the judges absolutely love in auditions do better.

[rokstedy]

This argument is similar to one I heard regarding whether or not LaDanian Tomlinson was worthy of winning the MVP this year on a sports talk show. In stating his case for Tom Brady, the caller suggested that LT backers were "blinded by an amazing season" and couldn't see that Tom Brady was more valuable. A subsequent caller then asked the question "should a player be given an MVP because of one spectacularly good season?"

These comments are real.

IOW, there's a reason elliott was at a disadvantage, and it had nothing to do with screentime. Katherine and Taylor were more popular and more worthy of being american idols.

[smbruin22]

what about the 75% (??) of qualifiers who didn't make audition TV but made it to hollywood?...

no viewers know who they are, and now i think many of us would feel we have some sort of emotional attachment to indian brother, hotter friend, black bolivian, NFL cornerback daughter and a few others..... and i think it's a big factor. we feel like we partially discovered them.

i wonder if taylor's divided audition last year got him alot of sympathy/empathy from the viewers.... has there been a real split audition? i guess a few where randy or simon suggested they'll be going home from hollywood fast.

wasn't it mentioned that all the top finishers last year had their auditions on TV? is that correct?

[rokstedy]

[ QUOTE ]
what about the 75% (??) of qualifiers who didn't make audition TV but made it to hollywood?...

no viewers know who they are, and now i think many of us would feel we have some sort of emotional attachment to indian brother, hotter friend, black bolivian, NFL cornerback daughter and a few others..... and i think it's a big factor. we feel like we partially discovered them.

i wonder if taylor's divided audition last year got him alot of sympathy/empathy from the viewers.... has there been a real split audition? i guess a few where randy or simon suggested they'll be going home from hollywood fast.

wasn't it mentioned that all the top finishers last year had their auditions on TV? is that correct?

[/ QUOTE ]


Isnt there a previous winner whose audition was not even aired?

[smbruin22]

[ QUOTE ]
Isnt there a previous winner whose audition was not even aired?

[/ QUOTE ]

i'm curious about that..... pretty obvious to me that it's an advantage to have your audition on TV.

[revots33]

[ QUOTE ]

Isnt there a previous winner whose audition was not even aired?

[/ QUOTE ]

Not sure about winner but I don't remember seeing Bo at all until he got put through in Hollywood. Elliott also was not shown until a glimpse in Hollywood and he missed 2nd place by like .01 percent.

It's a long season, I think people will start to gravitate to the best performers even if they weren't shown in auditions. I'm sure I'd have jumped on the Taylor train after "Levon", even if they had never shown his audition.

[smbruin22]

evidently all 5 winners had their auditions shown on TV.... given that they seem to be showing 25% (??) of successful auditons, i'd say that is very statistically significant.

i'm open to correction as i had to ask other people about the 5 winners.

i think we all a little something emotionally invested in about 4-5 people so far (different for each of us)

[_Tank_]

Kelly Clarkson and Fantasia didnt have their auditions featured.

[mynamewastaken]

Whether or not having the audition aired helps the winner, I'd say it's almost certain that having an aired audition will lead to a higher opening market price than having an unaired audition.

I'd also suggest that having a LONGER audition gives you an advantage over a short (~1:30) audition, because a) it allows more opportunity to develop backstory with which the audience relates and b) the audience is more likely to remember a 'gimmicky' candidate than a random person with a good voice. Again, it is not about measuring the talent but rather measuring their comparative value.

I look at it this way: air time is the most expensive commodity the FOX network has. Every second they devote to a contestant is done so intentionally (although the intention may be, as someone rightly suggested, to create the best drama possible and not to influence the outcome of the competition). However, I believe that their choices have an inherent influence over the outcome.

Further, looking at the stats I've compiled in the FAQ I'd say more than 25% have had their auditions aired. Add to that the fact that next week there will be a 'Rest of the Best' episode where they will show unaired successful auditions from the 7 cities, and I'd say something close to 50% of auditions will have been aired. And not just ANY 50%, but the majority of them will be contestants whom the judges will put through to the top 24.

Yes, there will definitely be contestants in the T24 who we have never seen before. And yes, they have a shot at winning (and some of them will almost definitely make it far) based on raw talent alone. But they will be undervalued at first while contestants like Sundance, Castroboy, Jordin Sparks, Sanjaya, etc will be overvalued.

I don't remember seeing Kelly Clarkson's first audition, but I do remember seeing Fantasia's. Although I don't recall, they might have shown it later. Anyone with previous episodes care to look it up?