Two Very Questionable Decisions from Deep in Sunday Million ($530)

[LearnedfromTV]

Both of these hands happened with ~60 players remaining, within twenty hands of each other, and both involved the same main Villain, a donk. I may have outdonked him.

My 500k is roughly average stack.

Here is what I had seen so far from him:

- He was borderline tight with his preflop raises (I was on my laptop so no pt stats, but I would guess 15/12ish - all lategame, I hadn't played with him earlier); did not seem to be stealing much, probably was stealing some but had not raised often at all in EP.

- When he raised and saw a flop he nearly always cbet. I think he cbet every one, but without pt I'm not positive.

- He was extremely loose calling shoves. For those who were watching this was the guy who won 88>AA and then 55>AA (both with flushes); in the 55 hand he raised to 80k (8k/16k level), and called a 400k shove (I think he was the HJ or CO and the AA was BB).

- He had never reraised until Hand 1 below, where he does. No standard resteal spots in LP, nothing. He'd coldcalled two or three times, however.

- Sometimes he raised 3xbb; sometimes he raised 4x-5xbb. Four of the hands where he had raised 4x or 5x had shown down and every time he had a pocket pair.

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Hand 1. Guy described above is the reraiser here. One additional read is that the original raiser had been playing very tight; he had basically just blinded away over 50 hands or so. I don't know how meaningful this is because the reraiser's range is still more important and I doubt he is paying attention; still this is tight EP raiser; followed by tight reraiser:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t16000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t244764)
BB (t201352)
UTG (t351313)
UTG+1 (t545844)
MP1 (t1307394)
MP2 (t247308)
CO (t1018225)
Hero (t492296)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">UTG+1 raises to t48800</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t160800</font>, Hero folds

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Hand 2. Raiser is the guy described above.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t24000 (8 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

SB (t494403)
BB (t170152)
UTG (t381713)
UTG+1 (t466644)
MP1 (t1385794)
MP2 (t191308)
CO (t855786)
Hero (t461096)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">MP1 raises to t96000</font>, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, Hero calls t96000, <font color="#666666">2 folds</font>.

Flop: (t200400) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">MP1 bets t144000</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: t344400

[luckychewy]

hand 1 i can agree with i guess, but i don't fault a shove at all. i think it's very close, maybe closer to a shove. tough spot.

hand 2 i shove pf all day.

[mlagoo]

with your read on his preflop tendencies hand 2 seems so bad lft....

hand 1 i can see though, although i imagine i would vom a little bit and just stick it in because, i dunno, i have queens and like 30xBB.

[DDBeast]

Must shove hand 2. Given these reads, I think it's okay to fold hand 1 but it's tough.

[snakekilla88]

h1 yucky spot but fine
h2 pf shove [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[LearnedfromTV]

sweet 4-4 on the AK; i have a counterargument but I don't feel like doing the math right now and would rather watch a couple west wing episodes than think about poker.

Will come back to it tomorrow. I expect twenty more identical responses by then. [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[skier_5]

[ QUOTE ]
hand 1 i can agree with i guess, but i don't fault a shove at all. i think it's very close, maybe closer to a shove. tough spot.

hand 2 i shove pf all day.

[/ QUOTE ]

[adanthar]

[ QUOTE ]
h1 yucky spot but fine
h2 pf shove [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

ditto

[TheNewf]

Hand 2 is an easy shove. Hand 1 sucks but is probably fine. I think it's close either way.

[Soulman]

LFTV,

while I agree with everyone else on hand 2, do you have an idea what villain will do if an A or K hits? Will he still get it in with his PP, or is he just loose with calls PF?

Even though villain is the "OMG I HAVE A PP, I'M SO RACING VS HIS AK LOL" type, that type of player will still often find a fold on an ace (and possibly king high) flop. If so, the cold call is obviously massively -EV compared to a push. ..so I'm curious as to whether you considered this when cold calling.