Flop decision

[Big Folder]

Hopefully this is instructional.

typical 3/6 live game - loose passive.

reads: I've only played maybe 20 hands, but here is what I've picked up so far.

UTG seems to get out of control at times. Real Laggy in certain spots, but loose-passive in other spots.

UTG+1 just sat down 5 hands ago. My only read is he's loose since he's been in about 4 hands and went to the river a couple of times without showing down a winner. Of course any read after 5 hands is suspicious.

MP1 and MP2- Total fish. Mega loose and mega passive.

SB - Loose, average aggression. Short stack.

Hero is in CO with JJ. 4 limpers and <font color="red"> hero raises </font> . SB calls, BB calls. Limpers call.

(14sb)

Flop comes
9 7 5 rainbow.
<font color="red"> UTG bets. </font> <font color="red"> UTG+1 raises. </font> Two fish cold call. Hero ...?

Please discuss.

[BigBadBabar]

3-town

[bbbushu]

three-bet.

right now, the pot is just about 12 big bets, which means it will be too big to protect (after we call it'll be over 13 bets total minimum) so waiting until the turn won't help us.

if somebody bets on the turn, our raise will still offer somebody drawing to a gutshot sufficient odds to call.

cross your fingers and hope your hand holds up.

bbbushu

p.s. plan to get worn out by 6[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

[Aaron W.]

I call and think about raising the turn depending on what falls.

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
three-bet.

right now, the pot is just about 12 big bets, which means it will be too big to protect (after we call it'll be over 13 bets total minimum) so waiting until the turn won't help us.

if somebody bets on the turn, our raise will still offer somebody drawing to a gutshot sufficient odds to call.



[/ QUOTE ]

If we call it will be 12bb. A bet and my raise on the turn, without any in between calls, will give people 7:1 odds. Not enough for a gutshot. Even with both callers its about 8:1 which is not enough for a gutshot.

In addition, since these people don't really assess odds, facing two-cold on the turn is scary enough for them to fold because I'm representing something big. Hell, even if these clowns knew i had JJ some would fold a 5 out draw (two pair or better) because they don't get odds.

So, its possible to protect this hand on the turn.

That being said, whats better on the flop, calling or raising ?

[rkidwell]

**grunch**

3-bet for value. You have a lot of equity in this pot. Call a flop cap. Reevaluate on the turn.

[bbbushu]

big folder,

i guess you're right about the pot size - i just eye-balled it.

if UTG bets the turn and there's "no investment in between" (e.g. everybody folds) than we're obv raising lol. just like if it's checked to us on the turn and we bet - their odds won't be that good but still probably close considering implied odds of at least one bet on the river.

i guess it's possible somebody else bets and we can raise immediately but unless the bettor becomes the last cold-caller, i'm assuming somebody calls somewhere in between, dude. if the action goes similarly to the flop (like UTG checks, and UTG+1 bets the turn) our raise won't skew the odds nearly enough for their calls to be mistakes.

if we "represent a big hand" by raising the turn, nobody cares if they've already invested a bet.

if one player calls a raise in between whomever leads the turn and us, our raise won't protect our hand:

UTG+1 bets, somebody calls, we raise (the pot is now 16 bets and anybody is free to call - even UTG, assuming s/he checked the turn - because they can call 2 bets into what will be an 18 bet pot after the others call, and at least one bet (although there's probably at least two) on the river if they hit. it's close even if it goes bet/raise on the turn (our raise) as long as the person with the gutshot thinks they can get a bet out of each opponent if they hit.

there's also a VERY significant chance that our hand is currently best and should charge them to draw against us.

i understand that they don't "get" odds but that's not really that important. our goal is still to force them to make mistakes and (i wish i had the book with me) as Ed Miller points out in SSHE - one mistake bad players almost never make is to fold live draws in big pots.

umm, figuring out whether it's possible to protect our hand is what determines whether it's better to call or raise the flop [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

i say it's not.
bbbushu

[tyler_cracker]

my quick reaction was 3bet, but this is correct:

[ QUOTE ]
I call and think about raising the turn depending on what falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is too big to protect our hand with a raise now, our equity changes a lot on the turn, and we have terrific position to get in a raise on a big street when the turn card is favorable.

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]

i guess it's possible somebody else bets and we can raise immediately but unless the bettor becomes the last cold-caller, i'm assuming somebody calls somewhere in between, dude. if the action goes similarly to the flop (like UTG checks, and UTG+1 bets the turn) our raise won't skew the odds nearly enough for their calls to be mistakes.



[/ QUOTE ] If UTG1 bets the turn, two fish call, my raise will still give people 16:2 odds behind me to call. Thats enough to make calling with a gutshot a mistake. This is the only hand I can protect against since the pot is huge, but at least I'm protecting against them then. That is assuming the two fish call the turn. If one or both fold the odds are even better for me. On the flop I basically can't protect against anything and the fish have already called.

Note also, I'm talking about the people potentially behind me on the turn, not the guys who have already called. Even those guys will fold though as I'll explain below.

[ QUOTE ]

if we "represent a big hand" by raising the turn, nobody cares if they've already invested a bet.


[/ QUOTE ]

For a player who understands odds, if they had the odds to call the turn bet they'll likely have the odds to call a raise from behind. But these players don't think about this. At best they think "I'll pay one to see the river, but a raise means I'm drawing thin." You'd be surprised at how many people call/fold to a raise on the turn. People don't think like solid players and calculate odds, they think simply.


[ QUOTE ]

if one player calls a raise in between whomever leads the turn and us, our raise won't protect our hand:

UTG+1 bets, somebody calls, we raise (the pot is now 16 bets and anybody is free to call - even UTG, assuming s/he checked the turn - because they can call 2 bets into what will be an 18 bet pot after the others call, and at least one bet (although there's probably at least two) on the river if they hit. it's close even if it goes bet/raise on the turn (our raise) as long as the person with the gutshot thinks they can get a bet out of each opponent if they hit.


[/ QUOTE ]

Implied odds is definitely out of a fish's vocabulary. Chasing gutshots for them is simple. They might fold for an additional bet. Remember, these people don't think rationally. They'll think that calling $6 for a gutshot is ok, but they don't want to pay another $6 for it. They don't count odds, they count money.

[ QUOTE ]

there's also a VERY significant chance that our hand is currently best and should charge them to draw against us.


[/ QUOTE ]

You're right, we are probably ahead here. The problem is raising the flop will charge them, but they'll be more correct to take those odds on the flop. Waiting until the turn allows you to force people into bigger mistakes. 3-betting this flop will likely give people correct odds on the flop anyways and definitely give them correct odds on the turn, especially if its checked to me. Then I have no way to protect my hand on any street.

[ QUOTE ]

i understand that they don't "get" odds but that's not really that important. our goal is still to force them to make mistakes and (i wish i had the book with me) as Ed Miller points out in SSHE - one mistake bad players almost never make is to fold live draws in big pots.


[/ QUOTE ]

Them not knowing odds is important because they will fold live draws when they have the odds to call. Think of it this way. 1)People who smooth call the flop then raise the turn usually do so because they got a monster. It looks like a slowplay. The fish will think they are way behind and fold their weak live draws like 2pair or better. 2) Even if they knew all i had was JJ some would fold because they don't understand odds. They don't realize they still have 5 outs to chase, they'll simply say "$12 is too much to spend and he has me beat. I fold." Them not counting odds is great because they will fold when they should call to turn aggression.

[Big Folder]

[ QUOTE ]
my quick reaction was 3bet, but this is correct:

[ QUOTE ]
I call and think about raising the turn depending on what falls.

[/ QUOTE ]

pot is too big to protect our hand with a raise now, our equity changes a lot on the turn, and we have terrific position to get in a raise on a big street when the turn card is favorable.

[/ QUOTE ]

precisely. The reason I posted this hand was because I've always blindly 3-bet this in this spot, but I feel I waited to the turn correctly here.

My thinking was:
1. Pot is very large.
2. Bet came from my left so raising won't protect on the flop.
3. The flop raise got called in two spots so three-betting those three players won't drive them out and might not even drive out the people behind me.
4. The flop raiser will bet into me on the turn where i can protect.