deep in Bodog 30K, ATs in BB, gobbopinion appreciated

[cha59]

We are ITM and a long way from a significant pay bump.

How's my line here?

800/1600 blinds plus 150 antes. 8 handed.

HJ seems to be a pretty good aggressive player, slightly loose but not bad.

SB seems passive, but no strong read on him.

Folded to HJ (40,055) who raises to 4100
Two folds
SB (43,790) calls
Hero BB (46,410) calls with A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

Pot is Flop is 13,500
Flop is 4 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 6 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
SB checks
Hero considers options and checks intending to checkraise (not sure about this)
HJ obliges and bets 6200
SB calls
Hero ?

[Cornell Fiji]

Push preflop.

Check-raise all in plan is good for the flop.

As played, squeeze flop. crai.

[cha59]

Anyone like leading the flop? Why or why not?

[Jbrochu]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyone like leading the flop? Why or why not?

[/ QUOTE ]


I prefer to try a check raise for 3 reasons:

1) If you lead the flop and just get called and the turn misses you you're left in a relatively difficult spot OOP.

2) If you lead the flop and someone else pushes you're probably calling all-in and that's fine but it's a lot better here to push all-in with FE and a ton of outs rather than calling all-in IMO.

3) Worst case going for the checkraise is it gets checked around and you see the turn for free.


I'm not sure I like pushing preflop unless you have a pretty good read on the HJ. I don't like the risk/reward of HJ having a big hand considering your stack size.

[gobboboy]

Pushing preflop is terrible. Your hand is instantly turned into a bluff. No better hand is folding except small pairs.

Flop play seems like a definite check/shove. There's so much money in the pot now and you got pretty much the best flop possible. I think SB has a fairly large piece but there's no way you can fold. Look at all the pretty money in the pot.

This hand seems fairly standard as played so far. Now jam your chips in the middle.

[cha59]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing preflop is terrible. Your hand is instantly turned into a bluff. No better hand is folding except small pairs.

Flop play seems like a definite check/shove. There's so much money in the pot now and you got pretty much the best flop possible. I think SB has a fairly large piece but there's no way you can fold. Look at all the pretty money in the pot.

This hand seems fairly standard as played so far. Now jam your chips in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]

Good comments, thanks. This and jb's post pretty much confirm what I was thinking.

HJ's range is probably wide here and I think Im ~ even with what he has or ahead of it.

What do you think SB's range is?

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Pushing preflop is terrible. Your hand is instantly turned into a bluff. No better hand is folding except small pairs.

Flop play seems like a definite check/shove. There's so much money in the pot now and you got pretty much the best flop possible. I think SB has a fairly large piece but there's no way you can fold. Look at all the pretty money in the pot.

This hand seems fairly standard as played so far. Now jam your chips in the middle.

[/ QUOTE ]
I don't agree that a preflop push is terrible. There is 11K in the pot and you are 42% against top 10% hands and 34% against top 5% hands. Pushing is better than folding, but calling may be a little better than pushing.

It is true that if you push, ATs is not that much better than A3s. With A3s, this is an easier push.

I agree with the postflop analysis.

[gobboboy]

Betgo, pushing with ATs here is really really bad. If you want to make a move that is only profitable when your opponents fold a LOT, you can find a lot better spots than this. This is a really good spot to accumulate chips and turning your hand into a bluff is not a good idea.

[betgo]

[ QUOTE ]
Betgo, pushing with ATs here is really really bad. If you want to make a move that is only profitable when your opponents fold a LOT, you can find a lot better spots than this. This is a really good spot to accumulate chips and turning your hand into a bluff is not a good idea.

[/ QUOTE ]
You have a suited ace, so you are about 2-1 against big hands other than AA. You probably get called by middle pps you are slightly behind. You are turning it into a semibluff rather than a bluff. SB probably doesn't have a big hand, so there is a significant pot to steal. You are 42% against a top 10% hand, so the average loss when you are called is not that much. With something like K3s or T7s, you are so far behind if called that folding may be better than pushing.

Pushing is somewhat cEV+. Now flat calling is better than folding, but I am not convinced it is hugely cEV+. You probably play better postflop than I do, so maybe you can get a big advantage by flat calling.

[MLG]

this was a very good post by betgo. i agree 100%.