bellagio 10-20 deep: trips facing river crai

mikech · #1 01-28-2007, 12:06 AM

this was from a few mornings ago, couple of swedish guys in the game are providing the action. i think they're pretty good players, they're just splashing around a lot. anyway, the most active one opens utg to 100, i call with 9 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 8 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], button and a blind call also.

flop is 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. utg pots it for 400. he's very capable of having AK or 77 here, and we have about 7500 behind, so i call.

turn is the 8 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. he checks to me, i think for a bit and bet 600, he calls quickly.

river is a J [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. he checks again, i bet 1k, he instantly announces all-in. it's about 5400 more to me. call or fold, and why?

KingNeo · #2 01-28-2007, 12:13 AM

I just want to ask you this question:

Do you think your hand is pretty well defined at this point, and he knows that you have trips?

mikech · #3 01-28-2007, 12:18 AM

i think he thinks i have trips, and i think he thinks i think he has an overpair.

KingNeo · #4 01-28-2007, 12:24 AM

[ QUOTE ]

i think he thinks i have trips, and i think he thinks i think he has an overpair.

[/ QUOTE ]

Right, I think those are the standarad assumptions.

Well with that said, there were obviously zero drawing hands throughout the hand so that makes it relatively simple to analyze.

Is he crazy enough to actually try and bluff you off such a strong hand? I'm not so sure there are many players out there that would do this because it is such a retarded play. For the 1 time it works you get called down 10 times more.

From your description of him I think it is possible that he actually flopped a set here and checked the turn to you hoping you made trips. It is obviosuyl also possible he has JJ. I suppose A8 is a possiblity.

I am leaning towards fold but I know how hard it is.

good2cu · #5 01-28-2007, 12:27 AM

wow though spot. without any further reads I flip a coin I guess. I really like the villians line if he has a boat.

KingNeo · #6 01-28-2007, 12:31 AM

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I am leaning towards fold but I know how hard it is.

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That's what she said.

Banks2334 · #7 01-28-2007, 12:49 AM

I would hope he has A-J or an overpair but I'm guessing he showed you 55. Tough to lay it down, but I don't play that high, so I have a tough time calling off 5.4k [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img]

lapoker17 · #8 01-28-2007, 12:51 AM

JJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ.

lapoker17 · #9 01-28-2007, 12:52 AM

unless he's really good and knows you are a nit - everyone else seems to know.

NT! · #10 01-28-2007, 12:54 AM

[ QUOTE ]
Well with that said, there were obviously zero drawing hands throughout the hand so that makes it relatively simple to analyze.

[/ QUOTE ]

If he's been splashing around, he can't have 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] or A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] , etc? or 24, christ who knows. Not saying it's that likely, but if he likes to gambool / was setting up a move he could have all these and more.