Is this a valuebet?

[mute]

Villain is 40/12/1.5. Haven't seen him do anything out of the ordinary yet.

Party Poker 15/30 Hold'em (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 8[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls.

Flop: (4.66 SB) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

Turn: (3.33 BB) 8[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
BB checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets</font>, BB calls.

River: (5.33 BB) 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>

BB checks, Hero...

[veganmav]

pretty close IMO
but i think you need a better read to be able to bet here.
against unkowns, i'd probably check.


questions to ask:
if he had AQ, QJ J9 etc. how would he play it? would he have 3bet preflop? would he have made some play at the pot?

basically, if he had had any draw, would he have made a play at the pot?

what is his wtsd?
does he call down with A4o in this spot?
would he have made a play with a pair of tens? what about sixes?

i'd probably check through if i didn't know the answers to these questions, then i would look up hand history and note what he had, and play accordingly next time.

[gehrig]

seems close enough that i think u can flip a coin here

(awesome analysis, i know)

[sweetjazz]

I think you could be winning as often as 67% of the time you are called and I don't think this guy is check/raise bluffing except for like 1 time in 1000, so I think this is a value bet.

This is assuming that people still don't fold on Party Poker and go nuts with top pair (or at least put in a raise somewhere before the turn).

Don't forget that 98 and 87 are prime preflop calling, flop peeling hands on this board. So you're basically losing to Kx (rarely) and Tx and A8, while you're beating 98, 87, 6x (except 65 which will probably c/r), small pockets, and Ax.

[ArturiusX]

I check.

[wackjob]

I'd much rather check here against an unknown. Value bet a guy you have history with or a read on. The info you are gonna get my checking behind and getting to see his cards will be worth it since this is very close between value town &amp; check town to me.

[Smarty]

I am checking this river behind almost always.

[admiralfluff]

[ QUOTE ]
The info you are gonna get (b)y checking behind and getting to see his cards will be worth it since this is very close between value town &amp; check town

[/ QUOTE ]

[kapw7]

Since this is Btn vs BB and villain seems LAGish from stats, I think it's reasonable to assume that we are close to the magic 55% number to bet. Still I tend to agree with wackjob w/o better reads/history.

[NYSTOCKBROKER]

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