AA turn fold on paired turn

[kawelljd]

This was a really hard decision for me here. Villain was nuts - 74/52/2 over 50 hands but hadn't made a big move like this before. What do you guys think?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

saw flop|<font color="#C00000">saw showdown</font>

Hero ($65.45)
SB ($98)
BB ($55.70)
UTG ($28.95)
MP ($49.50)

Preflop: Hero is Button with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $2</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, BB calls $1.50.

Flop: ($4.25) 6[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $1.5</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $6.75</font>, BB calls $5.25.

Turn: ($17.75) T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font>
<font color="#CC3333">BB bets $46.95 (All-In)</font>, Hero folds.

Final Pot: $64.70

[lamathica]

I would raise flop to something like $9, then I could fold to this all-in donk bet. Villain's stats show he is not very aggressive post flop so I think I fold here. This is the type of player who is literally giving his money away...let him do that when you are more sure that you are ahead.

[mediumpimpin]

I agree with the bigger flop bet, and I think it's a semi-easy fold on the turn. However, If he's nuts I can see him making this move with a Jack, so part of me wants to call. Im folding this.

[jskinn04]

[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the bigger flop bet, and I think it's a semi-easy fold on the turn. However, If he's nuts I can see him making this move with a Jack, so part of me wants to call. Im folding this.

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I don't think he ever has a jack here.

[mediumpimpin]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
I agree with the bigger flop bet, and I think it's a semi-easy fold on the turn. However, If he's nuts I can see him making this move with a Jack, so part of me wants to call. Im folding this.

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I don't think he ever has a jack here.

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Why is that? Elaborate please.

[Genz]

Well, if you play as many hands as villain does, you have to be either check/folding a lot or betting a lot to get your AF up to 2. The AF is not independent from the VPIP! It's (# of bets + # of raises)/# of calls. So if you see a lot of flops/turns/rivers, you naturally call quite often. Villain still bets or raises twice as often as he calls. So he is not passive. Sample size is an issue of course, but it's a good indication.
He made a weak flop bet which could easily be a feeler bet with a middle pair, a hand that a villain like this would love to play. When you raise him, he thinks on the turn that you are like him and have a hand that you want to go to SD with, so he pushes. I think a fold is ok. Sometimes you fold the best hand. But on average you avoid paying off here, imo. you are getting about 1.5:1 here, so you have to be right more than once in three tries. I think it's a good fold.

and please don't use other (very popular) poster's avatars...