Big pot Interesting spot with AA

[SA125]

Full live 30-60 5 ante 10 BI

BI to my left, a passive loose bad player raises a T up, an agro lag makes it 60 with 5c up, agro loose laggy type calls 60 cold with 9s up, I make it 90 with split (A 5) A. They all call.

4th I brick and bet, T folds, 5 bricks and calls, 9 catches an 8 and raises, I pause and call, 5 calls.

5th I brick again and ch, 5 ch's, 98x bets 60, I tank trying to put him on a range of hands. He knows I have AA or KK.

I figure AA, trip 9's, trip 8's, 9898, 89TJ. I can't see another hand here. He was closing out the action when he raised. He wasn't shutting anyone out. He was adding to the pot. If it's AA his board cards are higher than mine. I fold. 5x folds. 98x drags.

Comments?

[trickyAAA]

I think this is a call. Here is my analysis - please let me know if anyone finds a mistake:

assumptions:
7 cards left that make two pair for the hero (of a possible 9 - assumes two are dead)
2 cards left that make trips for the hero
39 cards left in the deck

Range of hands for villian
hand % outs %wins
8989 25% 9/39 5.7%
8898 20% 2/39 1.0%
AA98 10% 6/39* 1.5%
TJ98 25% 31/39* 19.8%
9998 20% 2/39 1.0%

This makes the hero 30% to win the hand, the pot is 600 and the bet is 60.

Regarding the asterix next to two of the outs estimates:
For the hand where the villian has aces, there are 9 cards that make two pair or better, but I discounted this to 6 in case the villian makes aces up. For the hand where the villian has a straight draw, 31/39 represents the number of draws for the villian that do not make his straight.

I made a lot of assumptions here, and estimated the chances that the villian had each hand. Please comment.

[SA125]

I guesss your plan is to call 5th and 6th and fold river UI, and call if you do improve. Assuming you don't improve on 5th or 6th, what cards could he catch that would bring a fold?

[trickyAAA]

If he pairs his door, you are behind in every hand except the str8 draw. I think at that point I am gone. But if he catches a straight card, I would re-evaluate the 19% I thought I was getting from a possible straight, revise it downwards, and play accordingly. I would consider the fact that a seven gives him back door straight possibilities in two of the hands as well.

[SA125]

I think a Q, J, T, 9, 8, and 7 all cause some concern. I know almost every stud player I see, based on pot size alone, would call this down to at least the river. Maybe I'm wrong.

The biggest difference for me in the hand would be if he raised to shut out the field. This was a pot builder when he could've called to close out the action. Maybe he wanted me to 3 bet and shut the other guy out. Who knows?

[Andy B]

The only hand that you're really in trouble against is trips, and trips might have waited until fifth street to pop it, don't you think? You have to at least call. The only question is do you raise to get it heads-up? If the other guy is folding anyway, then you just call and hope. I lean towards calling.

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
The only hand that you're really in trouble against is trips, and trips might have waited until fifth street to pop it, don't you think?

[/ QUOTE ]

Why wait? Pot is big already and he probably figures I'm calling down. I wouldn't be surprised if he had 2p and was hoping I'd re-raise to thin it. If he caps I puke.

I included AA in the intial range, but I'd guess the order is trip 8's, 9988, 89TJ and rolled 9's.

I could see calling here and wondered if it was a bad fold. Problem is, I call 5th I'm calling 6th. I could be drawing to 2 outs. That huge price is great, but often dead money.

[Jeffage]

I don't go to 90 on third - everyone (inc. the 10) is likely to call and you've inflated the pot with a hand that likes to play shorthanded. Plus, you will act first on the next couple betting rounds most likely which will be a strategic disadvantage after you've basically turned your hand face-up. I prefer to call and likely checkraise 4th or a later street.

I'd checkraise 5th street personally since I want the guy with the 5 out and he will prob call on the installment plan in this large pot if you don't jack it up. I think trip nines is unlikely, trip 8's is possible if he'd be so laggy to reraise third with pocket 8's, 9898 maybe but I think there is a strong chance he is just open ended on 4th and is following through on 5th in this huge pot w/t he likely plan of taking a freebie if he bricks 6th but maybe betting if there is only one caller. What about a big three flush on third and now he makes a 4 flush on 5th so he bets? You don't give suits.

Anyway, I raise to get it headsup. Then play well on the next street. And I'm still kinda drunk from last night so if this doesn't make any sense, my bad.

Jeff

[SA125]

[ QUOTE ]
Anyway, I raise to get it headsup. Then play well on the next street. And I'm still kinda drunk from last night so if this doesn't make any sense, my bad.

[/ QUOTE ]

No, I think you, Andy and others have it right. Glad I posted it because the more responses I read and think about it, the more I how I gave up too early.

I believe that running bad/playing bad go hand in hand. This was one of those days and I think figured I must have been beat. I wouldn't be surprised if I was crushed, but I think this was a pot I can't give up on that easy. If nothing else, give myself a chance to catch the kind of lucky cards that always kill us.

Tx all for the responses.

[Andy B]

[ QUOTE ]
And I'm still kinda drunk from last night....

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm so disillusioned.