Early river bluff. Did I get too fancy all over here?

[Fiksdal]

This is 20 minutes into a live 40 Euro NLHE FO in an Oslo Poker Club. 47 entrants.

I've played with villain before. He is playing pretty standard TAG early on, but is clearly thinking, and can read opponents well, is able to make moves when he senses weakness, but also make good laydowns. Often joking with other people at the table, laughing a lot. Has been open raising twice so far in this tourney. Called some raises too. Won a couple of pots, but never shown down any hands.

I've been calm, seen some flops but haven't shown down anything or won any pots.

NLHE Tournament, big blind is t50, 9-handed

Stacks
Fiksdal: t10 000
BB: t11 000

Preflop: Fiksdal is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Fiksdal raises to t200, 6 folds, BB calls t150.

Flop: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]J[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] (pot t425, 2 players)
BB checks, Fiksdal checks

Turn:5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (pot t425, 2 players)
BB bets t500, I take about 10 seconds, and call.

River: 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (pot t1425, 2 players)
BB bets t800, I say raise, wait for like 15 seconds while I count out t3100, and slide them out in front of me at the table.

Any thoughts? What do you put me on if you are villain? And what kind of hands do you think villain could have given his line?

[registrar]

It would probably be better for you not to declare your cards in this hand because it's all too easy to say this is dumb.

However, in villain's shoes I would generally expect you to bet the flop with a decent pair or any sort of draw and then put you either on a total bluff or a flopped monster on the river and I would call with pretty much any made hand.

[Dr1Gonzo]

Hmm.
His overbet might mean he thinks you're on a draw. However, this is a live tourny so it's just an estimation of a pot bet I think.
You both have massive stacks so I would call in the BB with some 68s, 8Ts type hands. I would not put you on AJ as you didn't bet the flop, a 9 is unlikely as well...

[BlueEcho]

What does villian know about you? Does he think your capable of a UTG+1 raise with T8s,86s, 55, 77, 99? If not he might see this as complete air. It would be difficult to put you on a big pair other than JJ with the check after the flop. Gee I wish you didn't tell me what you had I think it's clouding my judgement.

Villian might play his hand like this with a mid pair. 77 looks like a real good canidate.

[tinty]

I think without having won any pots so far your image is good and you should c-bet the flop.

i think the turn is where to bluff if you're going to do it.

then what the others said bout the river...

[Fiksdal]

Yeah.. I now realize that it would have been better if I didn't include my hole cards in OP.

FWIW, villain probably sees me as standard tight aggressive.

[registrar]

OK Fiksdal,

let's assume he's a thinking player - what story are you telling him here? You raise pre, check flop, call behind on turn, and then overbet raise a blank river. Added to which, you've been involved previously but not won a hand.

What should he be putting you on?

[Fiksdal]

If I was him, I think I would be putting myself on at least A9, or possibly JJ.

Not that this would be a line I would take with those hands, but he doesn't know that.

[registrar]

So why weren't you trying to get money in the pot before and why are you making it hard for him to get money in the pot now?

[Fiksdal]

Good questions. But I might be a donk, for all he knows. And a lot of bad players will slow play monsters like this, and on the river they are desperate because the pot is so small, so they take their last chance to bet, and shove or overbet or something.

BTW: do you think villain could have been bluffing turn and river, because I checked the flop?