($114) Two odd spots

[Shillx]

The SB is suzzer. The CO has been using his stack well but I don't know if he is auto-pushing. He almost certainly missed a spot ITM so that might be introducing bias. Rough ICM calcs say that it is +0.6% against ATC and -0.5% against the top 70%.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (4 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

CO (t7545)
Hero (t2790)
SB (t2845)
BB (t320)

Preflop: Hero is in Button with 7[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
<font color="red">CO raises to t7520 (All-in)</font>, <font color="green">Hero ???</font>

Button is typical. The BB has no idea how to play a big stack (has folded at least 5 ATC spots) but seems typical from the calling side.

PokerStars Tournament, Big Blind is t400 with t25 antes (3 handed) Converter on pregopoker.com

Button (t1195)
Hero (t815)
BB (t11490)

Preflop: Hero is in SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="red">Button raises to t1170 (All-in)</font>, <font color="green">Hero ???</font>

Thanks,
Brad

[Paul B.]

Easy. Hand 1 is an insta-fold, hand 2 insta-call.

Almost too easy.

[FeNeF]

My intuition says fold hand 1, but it's more a math thing.

Hand 2 must surely be a call.

[suzzer99]

Is this the same one? Please tell me I didn't bust. And I agree with handsome.

[speedyg]

I don't think hand 2 is an easy call. Presumably the button has figured out that we will be forced allin before he will. Given this and the fact that he has little chance to win the tourney even if he doubles up here, I expect him to have a serious hand. Maybe something like 99+,AK,AQs (Is this way off?). If we call and bb calls ATC, we win like 24% of the time. Under this range it's super close. If we fold and bb calls (likely) we lock up second 25% of the time on this hand.

[speedyg]

If I soften the button range to something like 66+,AQ,AJs, the bb still busts him (assuming ATC's calls) more often then we win the three way.

[AMT]

[ QUOTE ]
I don't think hand 2 is an easy call. Presumably the button has figured out that we will be forced allin before he will. Given this and the fact that he has little chance to win the tourney even if he doubles up here, I expect him to have a serious hand. Maybe something like 99+,AK,AQs (Is this way off?). If we call and bb calls ATC, we win like 24% of the time. Under this range it's super close. If we fold and bb calls (likely) we lock up second 25% of the time on this hand.

[/ QUOTE ]


your range is wrong, yes.

fold in hand 1, call in hand 2.

[FeNeF]

[ QUOTE ]
If I soften the button range to something like 66+,AQ,AJs, the bb still busts him (assuming ATC's calls) more often then we win the three way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is way off. Most people are gonna be pushing reasonably wide. Folding into 2nd is not our main aim here.

[DDBeast]

Hand 1 I don't think he's pushing &gt;70% if he's made those bad folds.

Hand 2 easy call, odds are too good.

[speedyg]

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
If I soften the button range to something like 66+,AQ,AJs, the bb still busts him (assuming ATC's calls) more often then we win the three way.

[/ QUOTE ]

I think your range is way off. Most people are gonna be pushing reasonably wide. Folding into 2nd is not our main aim here.

[/ QUOTE ]

Achieving 2nd is our main goal. What is unclear is how we achieve it. Does anyone else push tight as the button with this chip arrangement and the blind level? I know I do but perhaps I shouldn't.