Wait till river to c/r TP

[admiralfluff]

FTP 15/30

I was villain in this hand (tricky LAGtag, possibly perceived as overagg).

Hero is jigga_man (fairly solid, 27/18ish TAG)

Hero gets A [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] T [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] in the SB 4 handed.

MP raises, hero 3bets, MP calls.

flop: 5 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]

hero bets, MP raises, hero calls.

turn: 8 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]

hero checks, MP bets, hero calls.

river: J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

hero checks, MPbets, hero raises...

A specific question:

If you guys think this sucks given what I think he thinks of me, what perception must he have of me for this to be good?

And for bonus points:

What do I have, and what do I think he has?

[DeathDonkey]

Given your self-description and assuming he would agree with you I think he played this hand very well. He believes you will fire the river with a flush draw and he also believes you are suspicious enough to call a river raise with one pair.

When he calls your turn raise you are putting him on a draw or a pocket pair, so on the end you are either bluffing with a worse draw, or value betting an ace or possibly something like 99 that you perceive has enough value vs his calling range. If you will call a raise with all these hands then his checkraise is quite good.

-DeathDonkey

[gehrig]

i guess i can appreciate the play conceptually but theres just no way at is a favorite vs a good players calling range on the end. 99???

[DeathDonkey]

If this is the case then shouldn't good player always checkraise bluff a missed spade or heart flush draw on the end? Why don't us good 2+2 tags checkraise bluff the river more? Oh yeah, because people call with everything...hmmm

-DeathDonkey

[admiralfluff]

Some more relevant info he probably has regarding me:

~30/23/2.5 WtSD of 39, flop AF> turn AF> river AF This is 5-6 handed.

4 handed I'm 41/33 with a WtSD of 39

[gehrig]

the issue isnt villain finding lots of folds with A8, its that AT isnt a strong hand vs villains nonbluffs

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 54.412% 50.00% 04.41% 306 27.00 { 55-44, AJs-A2s, 76s, AJo-A4o }
Hand 1: 45.588% 41.18% 04.41% 252 27.00 { ATo }

[DpR]

I have no idea how the replies go with the OP, but I think c/r'ing AT on the river stinks.

[DeathDonkey]

You forgot random bluffs with like KQ, also A2o, A3o (I raise any ace 4 handed), and hands like sets and flopped two pair might not play this way so I don't think they can be given equal frequency. Finally there is metagame value in this river play 4 handed against a decent player.

-DeathDonkey

[Chris Daddy Cool]

even if i ended up losing this hand with AT if i were able to pull it off and show down my hand that would be worth the price of admission alone.

[Nilzor]

Disregarding metagame: yes, I think the play sucks in 49 of 50 cases. I guess he has to percieve you as a LAG on tilt for that river to be marginally +ev (in which case he can never fold for a 3-bet). He has top pair with a mediocre kicker - you simply don't checkraise that on river for other reasons than metagame.

Bonuspoints:
I guess what YOU've got could be anything. Too little info. Any ace, 76, painted spades. You think he has JJ.