20/40 Tunica, sweetness?

BigEndian · #1 01-22-2007, 04:35 PM

My opponent on the river in this hand was new to the table and not a local. He looked like most any other of the age 35-50 patrons who live in the Horseshoe.

I have A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]T[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in UTG+1 and open raise. Three callers.

Flop: T[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]9[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
BB checks, I bet, two callers.

Turn: A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
BB checks, I bet, only the button calls.

River: 8[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
I check with the intention of raising.

- Jim

thirddan · #2 01-22-2007, 04:43 PM

just bet dude...thats actually not a great river card and i think bet/call is much better than c/r/f since that card completes both a flush and OESD...

a lot of live players will check and A here since a straight and flush draw came in...plus they might not bet an A anyways...

W. Deranged · #3 01-22-2007, 04:44 PM

This doesn't seem like a great opportunity for the sexy to me. Both QJ and a turned [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] draw got there on the river. Ts and 9s here are rarely betting in a live game (though I don't know how differently Tunica plays from the Northeast). You are really looking to get two bets out of an A here, and thereby risking two bets from a bunch of other hands. Some hands you beat that you would like to get extra bets from- hands like 98s and T8s- are often raising the river anyway and paying you two bets that way.

What you do have going for you is the relative likelihood of an A given the play of the hand, and the possibility of folding to a three-bet (thereby you lose the same amount to a [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] flush or QJ in the few cases you are beaten), but it doesn't make up all the bets you are missing from the mediocre hands here, in my opinion.

BigEndian · #4 01-22-2007, 04:59 PM

My thoughts were along what you're saying W, except that I thought it was a board that he very well could also have two pair here. Actually, I thought it was highly likely.

Plus the flush and straight on the board protect me from getting three bet like you said. In fact, I don't think I even get raised on the river in this game if I bet into two pair.

And a raggedy pair that didn't improve by the river folds a very high percentage of the time with the Ace on the board.

On a more abstract line of thought, I have to call a raise if I bet out here putting two bets in a spot where I'm an unlikely winner. But if I can fold to the 3-bet, I think I get 2 bets in on this CR when I'm ahead most of the time.

Still seem off base?

- Jim

Joe Tall · #5 01-22-2007, 05:03 PM

This is not a good spot for your line. Take a good look at the board and the river card.

Brad1970 · #6 01-22-2007, 05:36 PM

That's an awfully aggressive play on the river with that board...lotta possibilities there.

poker1O1 · #7 01-22-2007, 09:00 PM

[ QUOTE ]
This is not a good spot for your line. Take a good look at the board and the river card.

[/ QUOTE ]
he's not blind, his reasoning is that he feels a 3bet to his c/r would be rare. I'm on the fence, but would probably prefer leading.

thirddan · #8 01-22-2007, 09:21 PM

what makes any of you think this guy is going to bet? he has done nothing except check/call the whole way...no way he bets anything less than an A here (he might not even bet that)...obv op knows this guy better than us, but most live players aren't betting their pairs on the river after you check, op didn't give us any read so we should assume he is a standard live player = passive...bet and let him call with his whatever...