3 way reraised pot - lots of questions

rvg72 · #1 01-21-2007, 11:59 PM

Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($594.95) - Terrible player on my buddy list and the only reason I'm at this table. I've already taken about $300 off of him by value betting top pair many times. 55/15/1.5ish and has a tough time folding.

CO ($591.10)
Button ($392) - Solid player that I have as a big winner at $2/$4. TAG who can be tricky.
Hero ($884.30)
BB ($286.10)
UTG ($509.65)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]. Hero posts a blind of $2.
1 fold, MP calls $4, 1 fold, Button raises to $20, Hero (poster) raises to $68, 1 fold, MP calls $66, Button calls $50.

ok... wasn't expecting two calls. Button likely on JJ+, AK I figure. MP, no idea but he called immediately.

Flop: ($214) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets $211, Button folds, Hero calls $211.

I think checking is best here, right? Should I be pushing this when he bets? What if this was a solid player? Is it a fold or push then based on reads?

Turn: ($636) 6[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks

Have the nut flush and unless he has QQ he is drawing dead so checking here to get him to bluff or to at least help him make a call on the river.

River: ($636) 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets $150

Checked through and the board pairs up... that really sucks... Value bet? What if he pushes all-in? Should I push? Check/Call? Check/Fold?

Final Pot: $936

Hoopster81 · #2 01-22-2007, 12:16 AM

shove the turn

I make it more like $80-90 pf

flop is probably a fold as played

wpr101 · #3 01-22-2007, 12:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
shove the turn

I make it more like $80-90 pf

flop is probably a fold as played

[/ QUOTE ]

Shoving the turn is good. 90 is too much pre, 70 is better. Flop is a toss up between CRAI or fold. I don't like calling so much.

rvg72 · #4 01-22-2007, 04:30 PM

Thanks for the comments, I thought it would be a good exercise for me to look into the math between folding, calling and pushing. Let me know if there are any errors in logic or math.

Calling
I have at least 9 outs and possible 12 (if he has KK) or even 15 if he is making a move with JJ or AQ. He also might be doing this with a KdQx but not nearly as likely. Say about 11 average outs against this guy. So I need 3.27 to 1 odds to call or in otherwords I need to make $211 * 3.27 = $690 if I hit on the turn - so take off a bit for the house on river possibility and basically I need to stack him if a diamond hits to make calling +ev here. If he has the Kd or a set I probably stack him with a diamond otherwise no. So, overall, calling is not +ev vs this guy but it is close because I think I stack him if he has QQ or Kd which makes up a reasonable part of his range. Against a solid player it is much more -ev. Conclusion would be that folding is better than calling if you look at the hand in a vacuum.

Pushing Flop
If I push he folds JJ and probably AQ (he does not like to fold) and any bluff attempts and calls with QQ,KK,AA,KdQ,AKd

So apx fold 20%ish and call 80%.

When he folds I win $425

When he calls I am 40% vs his range so 60% I lose about $530 and 40% I win about $730.

So 0.2 * 425 + 0.32 * 730 + 0.48 * -530 = about +$64

So there is the answer (I think) - Pushing all-in would have been the highest +$ev play.

rvg

smartalecc5 · #5 01-22-2007, 04:53 PM

If only one could do that as they played [img]/images/graemlins/smile.gif[/img]

cool rvg

Hoopster81 · #6 01-22-2007, 05:06 PM

I think you are over-estimating your FE on the flop. I think he is hardly ever (5%) folding to your c/r.

HERE_2_gamble_ · #7 01-22-2007, 05:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]

Have the nut flush and unless he has QQ he is drawing dead so checking here to get him to bluff or to at least help him make a call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just seeing if you realised this???
Shove turn if he has trouble folding hands.

rvg72 · #8 01-22-2007, 05:18 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I think you are over-estimating your FE on the flop. I think he is hardly ever (5%) folding to your c/r.

[/ QUOTE ]

The reason I thought 20% was reasonable is because I think he bluffs here with JJ/AK or worse at least 15$ of the time. Throw in AQ which he might fold to a push and I don't think 20% is far off for this type of player.

If you drop this to say 10% it is still a +ev flop push but not as clear cut.

rvg

rvg72 · #9 01-22-2007, 05:26 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Have the nut flush and unless he has QQ he is drawing dead so checking here to get him to bluff or to at least help him make a call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just seeing if you realised this???
Shove turn if he has trouble folding hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my second point of confusion on the hand... I was torn between pushing and checking. If I push he only calls with AxKd or KxKd and possibly QQ. In my mind I figured this represented maybe 20% of his range and, if he had these cards, I could still push the river and get the same calls.

If he had anything else he folds to a push on the turn with 4 diamonds and so much action I think... I expected a turn bet in which case I was CRAI. At a minimum I though checking would let me value bet against a few hands that would have folded on the turn and maybe increase the chance of a river push.

Not 100% sure if my thought process was correct and probably underestimated the chance he had one of the hands that would call a turn push. Might be closer to 40% or more.

The river pairing up is obviously what I was worried about because QQ now had me beat. This was my 3rd point of confusion... I figured a value bet was best.

Roy

Hoopster81 · #10 01-22-2007, 05:28 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]

Have the nut flush and unless he has QQ he is drawing dead so checking here to get him to bluff or to at least help him make a call on the river.

[/ QUOTE ]
Just seeing if you realised this???
Shove turn if he has trouble folding hands.

[/ QUOTE ]

This was my second point of confusion on the hand... I was torn between pushing and checking. If I push he only calls with AxKd or KxKd and possibly QQ. In my mind I figured this represented maybe 20% of his range and, if he had these cards, I could still push the river and get the same calls.

If he had anything else he folds to a push on the turn with 4 diamonds and so much action I think... I expected a turn bet in which case I was CRAI. At a minimum I though checking would let me value bet against a few hands that would have folded on the turn and maybe increase the chance of a river push.

Not 100% sure if my thought process was correct.

The river pairing up is obviously what I was worried about because QQ now had me beat. This was my 3rd point of confusion... I figured a value bet was best.

Roy

[/ QUOTE ]

He's bad, he's not folding a set if you shove the turn

And any hands he's folding to your turn shove are probably folding to your river shove.