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American Idol Wagering FAQ - PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING
American Idol Wagering Forum
FAQ v0.76 by mynamewastaken revised Apr 22nd, 2007 Revision History v.0.76 - Apr 22nd, 2007 -added top9 + top8 performance info v.0.75 - Apr 7th, 2007 -fixed formatting issues -fixed dead links -added top 10 + top9 performance info -added spoiler info re: Idolforums -added link to analysis of bottom 3 wording -updated misc. FAQ questions to include current season info -updated show airdate info -added links to Idol Chatter and VFTW v.0.74 - Mar 25th, 2007 -added top12 + top11 performance info -added info re: rally effect -fixed dead links v.0.73 - Mar 12, 2007 -fixed dead links -added top16 performance info -reorganized contestant bios v.0.72 - Mar 3, 2007 -fixed dead links -added top20 performance info v.0.71 - Feb 24, 2007 -added top24 performances -updated performance info -revised contestant list v.0.7 - Feb 15, 2007 -removed eliminated contestants -reformatted contestant list for final 24 -added opening lines from Pinnacle -revised "where to bet" section v0.6 - Feb 7, 2007 -added San Antonio contestant info v0.5 - Jan 31, 2007 -added Birmingham and Los Angeles contestant info -reformatted contestant info -corrected error in futures tutorial -updated dead links v0.45 - Jan 27, 2007 -fixed dead links and minor typos -added contestant images -added screen time info -added contestant gender info -added season 6 schedule information v0.4 - Jan 26, 2007 -added eligibility info -removed bad links -added Minneapolis and Seattle audition info v0.31 - Jan 25, 2007 -added NYC audition info -added guest judge info -added admitted/televised contestant totals -minor typos corrected v0.3 - Jan 25, 2007 -replaced spoiler info from idolforums with confirmed audition contestants (incomplete) -added projected air date information v0.2 - Jan. 23, 2007 -replaced birth year of previous AI contestants with listed age -replaced home state with official hometown (from idolonfox.com) -added links to previous contestants' wikipedia entries -added info on spoiled top 40 contestants -corrected highest trading price on Taylor stock from season 5 -added info on shorting stock at WSEX -added link to d10's DialIdol FAQ v0.1 - Jan. 21, 2007 -original draft What is the purpose of this forum? Like its name suggests, this forum is all about gambling on America's favorite karaoke-themed reality show, American Idol. You can gamble on Idol? You sure can! Unlike most reality shows (Survivor, The Apprentice) that are pre-taped, the vast majority of the show from the final 24 onward is shown live. Therefore, books will accept action on the show. When is the show on? Tuesdays and Wednesdays, at various times between 8pm and 10pm EST and PST. The first half of the season's schedule has been announced: [ QUOTE ] <ul type="square">[*] Jan. 16 (premiere, 8-10pm): Minneapolis[*] Jan. 17 (8-10): Seattle, WA[*] Jan. 23 (8-9): Memphis, TN[*] Jan. 24 (8-10): New York, NY[*] Jan. 30 (8-9): Birmingham, AL[*] Jan. 31 (9-10): San Antonio, TX[*] Feb. 6 (8-9): Los Angeles, CA[*] Feb. 7 (9-10): “Rest of the Best” Special Audition Show[*] Feb. 13 (8-9) Hollywood Round[*] Feb. 14 (9-10): Hollywood Round - Top 24 Chosen[*] Feb. 20 (8-10): Top 12 males[*] Feb. 21 (8-10): Top 12 females[*] Feb. 22 (8-9): Results[*] Feb. 27 (8-9:30): Top 10 males[*] Feb. 28 (8-9:30): Top 10 females[*] March 1 (8-9): Results[*] March 6 (8-9): Top 8 males[*] March 7 (8-9): Top 8 females[*] March 8 (8-9): Results[*] March 13 (8-10): Finals begin with top 12.[*] March 14 (9-9:30) Top 12 Results[/list] [/ QUOTE ] The remainder of the season should look like this: [ QUOTE ] <ul type="square">[*] March 20 Top 11[*] March 21 Top 11 Results[*] March 27 Top 10[*] March 28 Top 10 Results[*] April 3 Top 9[*] April 4 Top 9 Results[*] April 10 Top 8[*] April 11 Top 8 Results[*] April 17 Top 7[*] April 18 Top 7 Results[*] April 24 Top 6[*] April 25 Top 6 Results[*] May 1 Top 5[*] May 2 Top 5 Results[*] May 8 Top 4[*] May 9 Top 4 Results[*] May 15 Top 3[*] May 16 Top 3 Results[*] May 22 Top 2[*] May 23 FINALE[/list] [/ QUOTE ] When can I start betting? As soon as the final 24 are announced, they will have an opening market price. The Final 24 are currently scheduled to be announced February 14th. The first group of semifinalists (boys) perform Feb. 20th. There has historically been value in betting on contestants before their first final-24 performance. For AI's previous season schedules, see epguides. Do people on the West Coast have a disadvantage over you EST people? Yes. The show airs at 8pm EST and PST, which means that west coast viewers have a 3 hour delay on viewing the performances. The only solution to this is to get an East Coast Fox feed, or to use TVU player to watch on your television. Remember, though, that many votes will not be cast until West Coast viewers get a chance to see the show en masse, so the results on Dialidol may be skewed until everyone has seen the show. What if I can't watch the show when it airs? Can I still make money? Yes. Certain aspects of futures wagering involves watching the show live, ie at 8pm EST on Tuesdays. This is because the goal is to take advantages of changes in market conditions that have not yet been reflected in the market price of contestants. But there are other wagers that are very +EV, including prop bets, betting on who will outlast who, betting on who goes home this week, etc. Much of your edge here comes from the inefficiency of the market. By doing your research using the links provided at the bottom of this FAQ, you can handicap an episode of AI the same way you would any other sporting event, without having to watch the episode live. Where do you place your bets? Pinnacle has a good selection of lines, but unfortunately does not accept business from US residents. Canadian and International players can still gamble there. Historically, most people here placed their bets in the long-term markets on WSEX. Doing so is essentially like buying and selling stock in contestants, and the same mantra that applies to the stock market applies here: "Buy low, sell high." Other sites like Pinny, VIP and BetCRIS offer straight wagers on props throughout the season. For example, you can wager on whether the winner will be male or female, over or under 23.5 years old, or whether contestant X will outlast contestant Y. Both of these methods are profitable, but the general consensus is that long-term markets are the ticket to big winnings. How do the long-term markets at WSEX work? Once the final 24 contestants are announced (these are the contestants who will be voted on by the public) each contestant is assigned a 'Buy' and 'Sell' value by the book, ranging from 0 to 100. This is the price of a single contract on that contestant, and the difference between the buy and sell price is the house vig. Notice that the sum of all the contestants' prices does not necessarily equal 100, as the price is set according to that player's independent market value. Let's look at some examples: Contestant Sell Buy J Smith 25 29 P Brown 6 8 A Jones 0 2 In this case, buying a share (or contract) in J Smith would cost $29. If Smith were to win American Idol, you would be paid $100 for each share you owned (this is equivalent to making a straight wager on Smith at +244). If Smith were to be kicked off the show, the contract would be worth $0. By contrast, a share of A Jones can be bought for $2, and if he were to win the show each contract would be worth $100 as well (this is like placing a straight wager on Jones at +4900). You can buy as many contracts in a contestant as you like. However, you do not have to hold on to your contracts until the contestant either wins the show or is booted. At any time (except during results shows when the market is frozen) you can sell any or all your shares for whatever the listed sell price is. Because the buy price is always higher than the sell price (and the difference increases along with the price) the house takes most of its profit from overtrading the commodities. This is why in general it is a better idea to hedge your bet by buying shares in a contestant's competition than to frequently sell your stock. Especially at the beginning, when there are too many contestants for there to be a preclusive favorite, it is unlikely that there will be movement significant enough to overcome the rake. That's all very interesting, but how do I know which contestants are good to buy contracts in? Well, for starters this forum contains a wealth of information. The people here have been successfully gambling on AI for a few seasons, and have turned it from art into science. Watching the show closely (and taking notes) is important, as is staying abreast of the latest insider info. MJ's Blog is the foremost authority on the latest Idol goings-on. The Idolforums.com message boards contain spoiler information compiled by people obsessed with the show to a level that I personally find terrifying, but can be useful nonetheless. Finally, Dialidol is perhaps the worst kept secret on the net, as it can predict the vote totals with startling accuracy. Predict vote totals? Does this mean that Idol is rigged? Yes and no. All the information at our disposal indicates that the votes tabulated by phone and text message are accurate and independently verified. That is to say, the booted contestant is actually the contestant who received the fewest votes. However, there are other ways for the producers to manipulate the show's outcome besides vote tampering. For starters, people do not vote on whom they would like to boot off the show, but rather on whom they like to stay on. This influences the results dramatically, as the worst contestant of the evening often stays on the show over a mediocre, unmemorable performance. Further, people are allowed to vote as many times as they like (presumably to gauge fanaticism over raw popularity, as fanatic fans are more likely to buy an album than a casual viewer who only votes once). This again influences the outcome, as certain contestants attract more fanatical fanbases than others (attractive contestants who appeal to the younger demographic tend to do better, as preteens with cell phones make up a large voting contingent). Further still, the producers influence the outcome by modifying the amount of screen time different contestants are allotted. They also play with performance order (performing last is a decided advantage over performing first) and the judges' comments, particularly Simon's, have a tremendous influence over the voters. It is important to remember that you are not betting on who you think deserves to win the show. You certainly are not betting on which contestant will be most successful after the show ends. All that matters is how long the player lasts, and it is important to understand how much influence the producers have over this What does Dialidol do? Dialidol is a website where people can vote automatically for their favorite contestant. The site then tracks busy signals to gauge which contestants are getting the most votes and posts the results online before the actual votes are tabulated. Although there is a margin of error on these posted vote totals, the predictions on Dialidol have been eerily accurate and one of the most important tools in the AI gambler's arsenal. For more info, see the Official Dialidol FAQ as well as d10's excellent 2+2 Dialidol FAQ. What is VoteForTheWorst? How does it affect the votes? VoteForTheWorst is a website that encourages people to vote for the worst contestant on the show (as chosen by the site owners) in order to maximize the entertainment value of the show. Although they claim some success, their effectiveness at influencing vote totals is unproven. Last season they supported Brenna Gethers, Bobby Bennett, Kevin Covais and Kellie Pickler. Only the last two made it to the final 12, and both Covais and Pickler were booted from the show close to the predicted time. VFTW claims to have supported Taylor as well, but there is little evidence to support the theory that this site was responsible for his eventual victory. This year VFTW has backed Antonella, Sundance and most recently Sanjaya Malakar. How do I make money at this, then? There are two factors in play that make AI a particularly lucrative endeavor. The first is that few people even know it is possible to gamble on this show. This leads to some highly inefficient markets. When betting on popular events like the Superbowl, even if the bookmaker makes a mistake at first the huge sums of money that pour in on both sides of the wager ensure that the market will adjust and any potentially erroneous lines will quickly disappear. Not so with American Idol, as a bad line can sometimes remain available for days (especially if the books are slow to react to unforeseen developments a la Mario Vasquez. The second factor that makes Idol lucrative is that most of the people betting on it do not recognize the tremendous influence the producers have over the outcome of the show. Most people vote for who is the best singer, who is the most attractive, or who is the most popular performer. As has been demonstrated, none of these factors necessarily dictates the winner of the competition. The key to making money, then, is to understand the correct criteria that dictates how the show will play out, and staying ahead of the market by buying and selling stocks earlier than the masses. How much can I expect to profit? It really depends on your dedication, your familiarity with the machinations of the show, and your tolerance for risk. Numbers from 50% to 500% ROI have been reported but not confirmed. Anywhere in the 75%-125% range should be considered 'good'. As with any gambling, never invest more than you can afford to lose. However, the best way to make money is to keep as much of it invested at one time as possible. Having $1000 sitting around just waiting to be bet is not an efficient way to go, although it reduces your potential for loss as well. How often does the last performer of the night get booted? I haven't watched the show obsessively enough to tabulate this (although I will get to that) but generally speaking, not very often. The last performer (the "headliner") is often a 'showcase' performance and was chosen to perform last because the producers think he/she will be very good. More often than not, they are right. Sometimes, even when the headliner is only mediocre the judges will give positive, undeserved comments to help the contestant stay on another week. By contrast, the performer who goes first (known as 'the curtain-jerker') is frequently at a disadvantage, as not only must he/she warm up the audience, but he/she is likely to be forgotten by the time everyone else has had a chance to perform. The advantage that the headliner has over the curtain-jerker decreases as fewer and fewer contestants remain, and by the final 3 this advantage is usually negated by other factors. Does being in the bottom 3 one week have a rallying effect? It has been argued that being in the bottom 3 one week mobilizes one's fanbase and can actually serve to a contestant's advantage. This theory is unproven as discussed in this thread. How does splitting the vote work? Many contestants blend together and are almost indistinguishible from one another. For example, there may be two African-American women who are very good soul/R&B singers. They are likely to split their target demographic and both are likely to end up in the bottom 3 at some point in the show. However, once one of the two contestants is booted, all the votes they would have garnered the next week generally shift over to their remaining doppelganger, who is then usually safe for a few weeks. This is a critically important concept, as it leads to several conclusions: #1. While a contestant has opposition that is similar to themselves in a significant way (race, song choice, hometown) both contestants are at a disadvantage because neither one will be able to compete with a 'unique' performer, even if said performer is less talented or popular. #2. After one vote-splitting contestant goes home, the remaining votes shift to the remaining contestant, so that contestant's vote total the next week or two will be artificially higher than it deserves to be. How much influence do the judges have over the final result It is clear is that the judges alone decide which contestants make the final 24, and thus which contestants will even be voted on by the public. This is important because it means the judges can influence things right off the bat by modifying their selection criteria. For example, if the judges are looking for a younger winner they can put through a disproportionately large contingent of 16-year-olds, thus limiting the selection of older contestants and nudging the public in that direction. Simon seems particularly adept at predicting which contestant will go home, and when he tells someone to 'pack their bags' he's probably not messing around. However, it is unknown whether the public listened to Simon and voted off the contestant because Simon said so, or if they would have voted that way anyway and Simon was simply playing fortune teller. Personally I tend to lean towards the former, but in either case it would be unwise to ignore Simon's comments to the contestants as a matter of course. Paula's and Randy's comments, to a greater or lesser extent, are poor indicators of future success on the show. What about screen time? How does that affect popularity? In the early going, the producers highlight the contestants they think will do well. This is evidenced especially in the very early rounds, where only about half of the contestants who go through to the Hollywood round are given any screen time at all. If the producers flew all the way to that contestant's hometown to shoot footage of them working on their dairy farm, or at the post office, or wherever these drains on society are employed before their 'big break', you can rest assured that the producers expect at least some modicum of success from them. However, many of the contestants who have done very well on the show (Kelly Clarkson, Bo Bice) were not shown much if at all in the early rounds. It is thus unwise to bank on the producers' early favorites, but instead it is better to approach the matter holistically and combine the contestants' allotted screen time with other factors. This season, the furthest contestant to make it without having her first audition aired was Stephanie Edwards (finished 11th place). Why do they put through 16-year-olds if Simon always says they're too young? Young people have not fared well on this show, especially in the clutch. 16 to 18 year old kids make it through to the final 12 quite frequently, but once there they tend to be weeded out due to immaturity. See: Paris, Diana, etc. Why do they put through rockers even though it's not a rock and roll show? In the interest of diversity, the show puts on airs of appealing to a demographic beyond the bubblegum pop crowd by admitting (and sometimes supporting) Nickelback imitators. The most successful example of this was Bo Bice in season 4, although he lost to Carrie Underwood. Chris Daughtry in season 5 was also successful. However, these 'niche' contestants are not much different from the John Stevens' of the show, in terms of likelihood of success. The winner is much more likely to be a pop princess or a balladeer, due to voter demographics. Why don't they reveal vote totals? Every week, the producers play with the results show to maximize drama. This is usually done by separating the bottom 3 vote-getters from the pack, although there are other strategies (dividing them into higher and lower voted groups, etc). What they will almost never do is tell you how many votes each contestant has received. This lack of information allows the producers to take advantage of statistical ties, which are quite frequent in a large pool of 8-12 contestants. Even when it's down to 3 or 4, the difference between 1st and last place is often smaller than people realize, and so people frequently undervalue a contestant in the bottom 3 who survives to the next week. This happened in season 4 with Bo Bice, for instance, when he found himself in the bottom 2. This thread offers a good discussion on the wording used in the show to designate player rankings. When is the best time to buy and sell contracts? Whenever there is a change in market conditions that has not yet been reflected in the buy/sell price. In reality, this is most likely to be either during or immediately after the performance shows, which is why it is critically important that the episodes be watched live. Beating other players to the market is a much surer way to succeed than simply guessing who you think the winner will be. What is an arb? How do I do it? Last season there were people who were gritting their teeth at the AI finale because if Taylor somehow didn't win (although he was a heavy favorite) all their hard work over the course of the season would have been for nothing. Others, however, had bought both Taylor and Katherine contracts at different times (ideally when each was at its lowest point) so that by the time it got to the finale, there was no risk associated with the bet. Regardless of who won the contest one of the bets would pay off, and the losing bet would be less than the amount won on the winner. This is called an arb (arbitrage) or scalp, and if you can pull it off it equates to risk-free cash. Let's take the previous example: Contestant Sell Buy J Smith 25 29 P Brown 6 8 A Jones 0 2 If these were the only 3 contestants left, it would be impossible to lose simply by buying an equal amount of contracts in each. For example, buying 1 contract in each of the three would cost $29+$8+$2=$39. One of these three contestants will win for sure, for a payout of $100. The other two will lose. This would equal a guaranteed profit of $100-$39=$61. In reality, such an arb will not be available all at once. However, it is quite likely that, if these three contestants are in fact the final 3, at some point or another each will be offered at the above listed price. The trick is finding the contestants who are undervalued and picking them up at that time. This method involves some risk, as it is always possible that the contestant you have picked to make it far will be booted early and you will lose your investment in him/her. However, once you are able to spot the good values the risk diminishes substantially. What is a hedge? How do I do it? A hedge is sort of like an arb, in that you are betting on all the possible outcomes of an event. However, as opposed to a guaranteed profit on either side, a hedge involves a guaranteed small loss. Why, then, would you be interested in hedging? Think of it as insurance on your bet. If, as in the above example, you bought Smith at $29/share, it may be in your interest to take a small piece of his opposition to mitigate your losses. Of course, if you're lucky you already have shares in his opposition that were purchased at a lower price at an earlier date, thus allowing you to arb it out, but sometimes this is not possible and the desire to take a guaranteed small loss over the possibility of a total loss can be reasonable. If you have bet correctly, there should be little reason to hedge until the very end of the season, when not doing so in favor of a remote hope of a big payout can be disastrous and wipe out all your winnings throughout the course of the season. So does this mean I don't get paid until after American Idol is over? In theory, this is true. Betting on futures markets means that no contestant will ever reach a sell price of $100 until the show is over. However, there are instances where it is wise to cash out early and negate the risk. For instance, before the finale Taylor's stock was reportedly selling for $81/share. At this point, depending on your tolerance for risk, it may have been worth cashing out prior to the finale. However, generally speaking holding out for the announced winner (and hedging/arbing as necessary) will lead to greater rewards. As with any gambling, reward is directly tied to risk. With AI specifically, though, the final three contestants tend not to hold any surprises, and so it may be worth letting it ride. What is a short? How do I short my shares? In its simplest form, shorting a stock involves 'selling' a stock you do not own. For example, in the case of Smith supra (Sell:25/Buy:29) a person holding 0 shares could 'sell' 2 shares and thus have a -2 share stake in Smith. This is functionally equivalent to placing a bet that the event will not happen, that is to say betting that Smith will not win. To short a stock on WSEX, you must have enough money in your account to cover to cover the bet should it lose. That is to say, for each share of Smith you wish to short at 25, you must have $75 in your account to cover the amount you would lose if Smith should win the competition. Due to a glitch in WSEX's software, winning shorted wagers are not paid out until the end of the season. However, you can buy back your winning shorts at any time for $1/share (this dollar will not actually be charged to you). This quote from Jurollo explains the process well: [ QUOTE ] When you buy someone for the sell you are opening a future. So lets use Chris for example: If you bought him at a sell of 37 you are risking 63 to win 37 in the event he does not win. So you are opening a future at 37 betting that he will decline. When Chris was eliminated he went down to 0/0, however, your future remains open. People get confused here because technically it should automatically credit you, however, it doesnt. So to close your short you must go back to the Idol Live Market and buy the given amount of shares for $1. WSEX will not charge you the $1 as this transaction is simply to close the future you opened with the short. [/ QUOTE ] How do spoilers come into play on this show? Spoilers on AI have more in common with sports injury reports than they do with spoilers for other shows (eg. Survivor). Because the show is live from the F24 onward, it is not really possible to have advance knowledge of the contestants. Furthermore, just as there is an injury report in the sports page of the newspaper, so too is there an AI report in the Entertainment section. Every week, the contestants' song choice is announced ahead of time (although it is subject to change). Oftentimes, a contestant's illness or family emergency will be reported on, and this could influence their performance that week. However, as opposed to a sports injury, you can not use this information to make an accurate determination of how well the performer will do. Remember that you are not making a bet on an objective measure of how talented the performer is. You are placing a bet on which contestant will not receive the fewest votes. Voters tend to be very forgiving, and even a contestant with a sore throat who can barely make it through the song has a chance if he/she was popular enough going in. This is vastly different than, for example, betting on an injured quarterback to throw a touchdown pass. In the case of AI, anything is possible, whereas in a 'fair' contest like a football game an injured player has almost no chance against a healthy one. The vast majority of spoilers come from IdolForums. What is the age limit for American Idol? For the first 3 seasons, the age limit was 16-24. In season 4, the age was raised to 28 to encourage a more diverse contestant pool (read: America ran out of talent). Since then, most contestants who would qualify for the show have already auditioned, so the best contestants tend to be either older (24+) performers who have not yet had a chance to audition or very young contestants who were not 16 as of last season. Any contestant under 18 must spend three hours a day with a tutor, which may put the young contestants at a disadvantage when compared to the over 18s, who can devote 100% of their time to the competition itself. What are the other eligibility requirements to become a contestant? From the official Idol website: [ QUOTE ] You must be able to prove at the time of your audition, if any, that: <ul type="square">[*] You are a legal U.S. citizen or a permanent U.S. resident who is eligible to work full-time in the United States; and[*] You are 16 to 28 years old on August 6, 2006 (which means you must be born on or between August 7, 1977, and August 6, 1990). If you were born before or after this window, you are not eligible to participate this season.[/list]You are ineligible to participate if you progressed in any previous season of "American Idol" to any of the following levels: <ul type="square">[*] Season 1 – top 30 contestants[*] Season 2 – top 32 contestants[*] Season 3 – top 32 contestants[*] Season 4 – top 44 contestants[*] Season 5 – top 44 contestants[/list]If you are asked to audition for the semi-final rounds of the competition in the Los Angeles, California, area, you MUST be able to demonstrate (before departing for Los Angeles) that you do not have any of the following: <ul type="square">[*] a contract for talent representation (for example, a talent agent or manager);[*] a music recording contract;[*] an acting and/or modeling contract;[*] a merchandising agreement; or,[*] any other contractual arrangement that would prohibit you from entering into an exclusive management contract, recording contract, talent contract, acting contract and/or merchandising contract.[/list]You are ineligible if you, or any member of your immediate family and/or anyone living in your household, is an employee, officer, director, agent and/or representative of Fox Broadcasting Company, American Idol Productions, Inc., FremantleMedia North America, Inc., 19 TV Limited., CKX, Inc., Cingular, Telescope, Coca-Cola, the Ford Motor Company, Sony/BMG, production personnel for the television program, participating television stations, advertising agencies, corporate sponsors or any person or entity connected with the production, administration or judging of the auditions, or any of the parent companies, affiliates, subsidiaries, agents or representatives of any of the foregoing entities. [/ QUOTE ] How many hours a week do I need to spend on this in order to make money? As with anything else, the amount of time and effort you put in is commensurate to your result. Most people here seem to agree that 5-10 hours per week (in addition to watching the show) should be sufficient. At the very least, you should make an attempt to watch every episode in full at least once (although the result shows are less important, mostly contain filler material, and any important info will be reported on and youtubed promptly) and check on the long-term markets at WSEX at least once a day. Because this is a small market, the lines are not likely to move very often so there is no need to obsessively check the market every few minutes. It is also extremely helpful to read these message boards: 2+2 AI forum (of course!) Idolforums - They have already spoiled the top 24, so you know they're on to something. Why they would go to that much trouble, nobody knows. My theory is they gamble on this too, but are much more discrete/successful at it than I will ever be. TWOP - Yes, they are mostly bored housewives who have substituted internet and TV for the usual Xanax and red wine, but they vote in large groups and are the reason Kevin Covais made it as far as he did. You don't have to respect them, but you should probably hear what they have to say. Survivor Sucks - One of the more famous reality tv boards out there, they also have a fairly large AI section. These people take their television seriously. Mock their virginity in private; profit off their analyses with us! DialIdol forums - DialIdol is arguably the most useful site for AI inside info, but their forums are clearly populated by antisocial middle schoolers who will haunt your dreams. Topics include: "Do you think Simon is really mean?" and "Idol is racist!!!" This is the place to go to see how the teeny boppers are voting without having to go and buy a copy of Tiger Beat Magazine. After you are done here be sure to wash your eyes out with an acetylene torch. MJ's Blog - This blog is to AI what DailyKos is to George Bush: A look inside the seedy underbelly or some other mixed metaphor which eludes me at the moment. I can only assume "MJ" is unemployed, but the entire gambling community appreciates all the work he puts into this site. Required reading for anyone serious about betting on the show. Idol Chatter - Another "respected" Idol blog by Ken Barnes of USA Today. Because when it comes to in-depth reporting, trust USA Today. VFTW - Votefortheworst is a popular website that supports whoever they feel is the worst contestant on the show. Currently supporting Sanjaya Malakar, VFTW has been backed by Howard Stern and mentioned in the mainstream media and alluded to on Idol itself. END OF PART ONE. SEE NEXT POST FOR PART TWO. 
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01-27-2007, 12:32 AM
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Re: American Idol Wagering FAQ - PART TWO
Appendix A: American Idol season 6 contestants
KEY: Name Image Auditions (Performance Order): "Song" by Artist (Randy-Paula-Simon Approval) (Result if Known=Top/Mid/Bottom/ELIMinated) <ul type="square">[*] Age[*] Hometown[*] Opening Line (Pinnacle) / Recent Lines (WSEX)[*] Briefest Possible Description[/list] Top 12 Finalists
 1st Audition: "My Girl" by The Temptations and "Let's Get It On" by Marvin Gaye (Y-Y-N) (3:35) SF Top 12 (12th): "I Could Not Ask For More" by Edwin McCain (Y-Y-N) SF Top 10 (1st): "I Ain't Missing You" by John Waite (Y-Y-N) SF Top 8 (7th): "I Need You" by LeAnn Rimes (N-N-N) Top 12 (7th): "I'm Gonna Make You Love Me" by Diana Ross (Y-Y-Y) (B3) Top 11 (6th): "Tobacco Road" by The Nashville Teens (Y-Y-N) Top 10 (6th): "Every Breath You Take" by The Police (Y-Y-Y) (B3) Top 9 (2nd): "Night And Day" by Frank Sinatra (N-N-N) (B3) Top 8 (5th): "Maria Maria" by Santana (N-Y-N) (B2) Top 7 (1st): “Where the Blacktop Ends” by Keith Urban (Y-Y-Y) (T3) <ul type="square">[*] Age 28[*] Jacksonville, FL[*] +2139 / +1900 / +4900 / +4900 / +4900 / +4900 / +3233[*] "Movementarian"[/list][*]Blake Lewis  1st Audition: "Crazy" by Seal (Y-Y-Y) (3:23) SF Top 12 (7th): "Somewhere Only We Know" by Keane (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (7th): "Virtual Insanity" by Jamiroquai (Y-Y-N) SF Top 8 (1st): "All Mixed Up" by 311 (Y-Y-Y) Top 12 (9th): "Keep Me Hanging On" by Diana Ross (N-Y-N) Top 11 (4th): “Time Of The Season” by The Zombies (Y-Y-Y) Top 10 (8th): "Love Song" by The Cure (N-Y-N) Top 9 (1st): "Mack The Knife" by Frank Sinatra (Y-Y-Y) (M3) Top 8 (7th): "I Need To Know" by Marc Anthony (Y-Y-Y) Top 7 (7th): “When the Stars Go Blue” by Tim McGraw (Y-Y-N) (B3) <ul type="square">[*] Age 25[*] Bothell, WA[*] +1697 / +669 / +900 / +900 / +669 / +566[*] "Beatboxer"[/list][*]Lakisha Jones  1st audition: "Think" by Aretha Franklin (Y-Y-Y) (2:06) SF Top 12 (12th): "And I Am Telling You (I'm Not Going)" by Jennifer Holiday (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (3rd): "Midnight Train to Georgia" by Gladys Knight (Y-Y-N) SF Top 8 (6th): "I Have Nothing" by Whitney Houston (Y-Y-Y) Top 12 (8th): "God Bless The Child" by Diana Ross (Y-Y-Y) Top 11 (5th): "Diamonds Are Forever" by Shirley Bassey (N-Y-N) Top 10 (1st): "Last Dance" by Donna Summer (Y-Y-Y) Top 9 (9th): "Stormy Weather" by Billie Holiday (Y-Y-Y) (T3) Top 8 (2nd): "Conga" by Gloria Estefan (Y-N-N) Top 7 (4th): “Jesus Take the Wheel” by Carrie Underwood (N-N-N) (B2) <ul type="square">[*] Age 26[*] Fort Meade, MD[*] +563 / +257 / +334 / +270 / +400 / +733 / +900[*] "Moomoo"[/list][*]Melinda Doolittle  1st audition: "For Once in My Life" by Stevie Wonder (Y-Y-Y) (3:13) SF Top 12 (9th): "Since You've Been Gone" by Aretha Franklin (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (4th): "My Funny Valentine" by Chet Baker (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 8 (8th): "I'm A Woman" by Peggy Lee (Y-Y-Y) Top 12 (2nd): "Home" by Diana Ross (Y-Y-Y) Top 11 (11th): “As Long As He Needs Me” by Shirley Bassey (Y-Y-Y) Top 10 (7th): "Heaven Knows" by Donna Summer (Y-Y-Y) Top 9 (3rd): "I Got Rhythm" by Ella Fitzgerald (Y-Y-Y) (T3) Top 8 (1st): "Sway" by The Pussycat Dolls (Y-Y-N) Top 7 (6th): “Trouble is a Woman” by Julie Reeves (Y-Y-Y) <ul type="square">[*] Age 28[*] Brentwood, TN[*] +806 / +400 / +185 / +138 / -108 / -143 / +100[*] "Seabiscuit"[/list][*]Jordin Sparks  1st Audition: "Because You Love Me" by Celine Dion (Y-Y-Y) (3:32) SF Top 12 (6th): "Give Me One Reason" by Tracy Chapman (N-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (6th): "Reflection" by Christina Aguilera (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 8 (1st): "Heartbreaker" by Pat Benatar (Y-Y-N) Top 12 (12th): "If We Hold On Together" by Diana Ross (Y-Y-Y) Top 11 (7th): “I Who Have Nothing” by Shirley Bassey (Y-Y-Y) Top 10 (9th): "Hey Baby" by No Doubt (Y-Y-Y) Top 9 (5th): "On A Clear Day" by Barbra Streisand (Y-Y-N) (T3) Top 8 (6th): "Rhythm Is Gonna Get You" by Gloria Estefan (Y-Y-N) Top 7 (2nd): “Broken Wing” by Martina McBride (Y-Y-Y) (T3) <ul type="square">[*] Age 16[*] Glendale, AZ[*] +1309 / +1150 / +1150 / +1328 / +488 / +525 / +233[*] "Linebacker"[/list][*]Sanjaya Malakar ELIMINATED 7TH PLACE  1st Audition: "Signed, Sealed, Delivered (I'm Yours)" by Stevie Wonder (Y-Y-Y) (3:39) SF Top 12 (8th): "Knocks Me Off My Feet" by Donell Jones (N-N-N) SF Top 10 (4th): "Steppin' Out" by Joe Jackson (N-N-N) SF Top 8 (2nd): "Waiting on the World to Change" by John Mayer (N-N-N) Top 12 (5th): "Ain't No Mountain High Enough (N-N-N) (B2) Top 11 (8th): “You Really Got Me” by the Kinks (Y-Y-N) Top 10 (4th): "Bathwater" by No Doubt (N-N-N) Top 9 (7th): "Cheek to Cheek" by Frank Sinatra (Y-Y-N) (M3) Top 8 (8th): "Besame Mucho" by Luis Miguel (Y-Y-Y) Top 7 (3rd): “Something to Talk About” by Bonnie Raitt (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 17[*] Federal Way, WA[*] +1476 / +2400 / +4900 / +4900 / +3233 / +1328 / xx[*] "Ponyhawk"[/list][*]Haley Scarnato ELIMINATED 8TH PLACE  1st Audition: "I Can't Make You Love Me" by Bonnie Raitt (Y-Y-Y) (3:03) SF Top 12 (8th): "It's All Coming Back To Me Now" by Celine Dion (N-Y-N) SF Top 10 (9th): "The Queen Of The Night" by Whitney Houston (N-Y-N) SF Top 8 (4th): "If My Heart Had Wings" by Faith Hill (N-Y-N) Top 12 (6th): "Missing You" by Diana Ross (N-N-Y) Top 11 (1st): “Tell Him” by Billie Davis (Y-Y-N) Top 10 (5th): "True Colors" by Cyndi Lauper (N-N-N) (B2) Top 9 (8th): "Ain't Misbehavin' by Ella Fitzgerald (N-Y-N) (B2) Top 8 (4th): "Turn The Beat Around" by Gloria Estefan (N-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 24[*] San Antonio, TX[*] +2922 / +4900 / +4900 / +4900 / +4900 / +4900 / xx[*] "OMGLegs"[/list][*]Gina Glocksen ELIMINATED 9TH PLACE  1st audition: "Black Velvet" by Alannah Myles (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 12 (11th): "All By Myself" by Celine Dion (Y-Y-N) SF Top 10 (1st): "Alone" by Heart (Y-Y-N) SF Top 8 (7th): "Call Me When You're Sober" by Evanescence (Y-Y-Y) Top 12 (4th): "Love Child" by Diana Ross (N-N-N) Top 11 (9th): “Paint it Black” by the Rolling Stones (N-Y-N) Top 10 (3rd): "I'll Stand By You" by The Pretenders (Y-Y-Y) Top 9 (6th): "Smile" by Nat King Cole (Y-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 22[*] Naperville, IL[*] +1956 / +3233 / +9900 / +3233 / +4900 / xx[*] "Evanescence"[/list][*]Chris Sligh ELIMINATED 10TH PLACE  1st Audition: "Kiss From A Rose" by Seal (Y-Y-Y) (3:00) SF Top 12 (9th): "Typical" by Mute Math (Y-Y-N) SF Top 10 (5th): "Trouble" by Ray Lamontagne (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 8 (8th): "Wanna Be Loved" by DC Talk (Y-N-N) Top 12 (3rd): "Endless Love by Diana Ross (N-N-N) Top 11 (10th): “She’s Not There” by the Zombies (Y-Y-Y) Top 10 (2nd): "Every Little Thing She Does Is Magic" by The Police (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 28[*] Greenville, SC[*] +502 / +733 / +900 / +900 / +3233 / xx[*] "BJU"[/list][*]Stephanie Edwards ELIMINATED 11TH PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (1st): "How Come You Don't Call Me Anymore" by Alicia Keys (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (7th): "Dangerously in Love" by Beyonce (N-Y-Y) SF Top 8 (5th): "Sweet Thing" by Chaka Khan (N-Y-Y) Top 12 (10th): "Love Hangover" by Diana Ross (N-N-N) Top 11 (3rd): “You Don’t Have To Say You Love Me” by Dusty Springfield (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 19[*] Savannah, GA[*] +3840 / +1328 / +1150 / +1900 / xx[*] "Other Black Girl"[/list][*]Brandon Rogers ELIMINATED 12TH PLACE  1st Audition: "Always On My Mind" by Elvis Presley (Y-Y-Y) (2:49) SF Top 12 (2nd): "Rock With You" by Michael Jackson (N-Y-N) SF Top 10 (8th): "Time After Time" by Cyndi Lauper (N-Y-N) SF Top 8 (6th): "Celebrate" by Rare Earth (Y-Y-N) Top 12 (1st): "Can't Hurry Love" by Diana Ross (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 28[*] North Hollywood, CA[*] +1200 / +1900 / +3233 / +4900 / xx[*] "Unbackground"[/list][/list] Eliminated Semifinalists
ELIMINATED 14TH PLACE 1st Audition: "If I Ain't Got You" by Alicia Keys SF Top 12 (4th): "I Ain't Never Loved a Man" by Aretha Franklin (Y-Y-Y) SF Top 10 (10th): "All The Man That I Need" by Whitney Houston (Y-Y-N) SF Top 8 (2nd): "Don't Let Go" by En Vogue (N-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 27[*] Studio City, CA[*] +2568 / +900 / +900 / xx[*] "Zero Screen Time"[/list][*]Antonella Barba ELIMINATED 15TH PLACE  1st audition: "Free/Sail On" by Chante Moore (Y-Y-Y) (3:27) SF Top 12 (5th): "I Don't Want To Miss A Thing" by Aerosmith (N-N-N) SF Top 10 (5th): "Because You Loved Me" by Celine Dion (N-Y-N) SF Top 8 (3rd): "Put Your Records On" by Corinne Bailey Rae (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 19[*] Point Pleasant, NJ[*] +4000 / +2400 / +3233 / xx[*] "Brunette Paris Hilton"[/list][*]Jared Cotter ELIMINATED 16TH PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (10th): "Back At One" by Brian McKnight (Y-N-N) SF Top 10 (2nd): "Let's Get It On" by Marvin Gaye (Y-N-N) SF Top 8 (5th): "If You Really Loved Me" by Stevie Wonder (Y-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 25[*] Kew Gardens, NY[*] +1697 / +4900 / +4900 / xx[*] "The Unpimped"[/list][*]Leslie Hunt ELIMINATED 17TH PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (3rd): "You Make Me Feel (Like A Natural Woman)" by Aretha Franklin (N-Y-N) SF Top 10 (8th): "Feeling Good" by Nina Simone (N-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 24[*] Chicago, IL[*] +1733 / +4900 / xx[*] "Dog Walker"[/list][*]A.J. Tabaldo ELIMINATED 18TH PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (11th): "Never Too Much" by Luther Vandross (N-Y-N) SF Top 10 (3rd): "Feeling Good" by Michael Buble (Y-Y-Y) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 22[*] Santa Maria, CA[*] +2747 / +4900 / xx[*] "Cannon Fodder"[/list][*]Alaina Alexander ELIMINATED 19TH PLACE  1st audition: "Feeling Good" by Nina Simone (Y-Y-Y) (2:45) SF Top 12 (10th): "Brass In Pocket" by The Pretenders (N-N-N) SF Top 10 (2nd): "Not Ready To Make Nice" by Dixie Chicks (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 24[*] West Hollywood, CA[*] +4000 / +4900 / xx[*] "Last Chance"[/list][*]Nicholas Pedro ELIMINATED 20TH PLACE  1st Audition: "Fly Me To The Moon" by Frank Sinatra (Y-Y-Y) (3:10) SF Top 12 (6th): "Now and Forever" by Richard Marx (N-N-Y) SF Top 10 (6th): "Fever" by Peggy Lee (Y-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 25[*] Taunton, MA[*] +3178 / +4900 / xx[*] "Last Year"[/list][*]Rudy Cardenas ELIMINATED 21ST PLACE  1st Audition: "Open Arms" by Journey (Y-Y-N) (2:30) SF Top 12 (1st): "Free Ride" by The Edgar Winter Group (N-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 28[*] North Hollywood, CA[*] +1476 / xx[*] "Ese"[/list][*]Nicole Tranquillo ELIMINATED 22ND PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (7th): "Stay" by Rufus & Chaka Khan (N-Y-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 20[*] Philadelphia, PA[*] +3178 / xx[*] "Zero Screen Time"[/list][*]Amy Krebs ELIMINATED 23RD PLACE 1st Audition: Unaired SF Top 12 (2nd): "I Can't Make You Love Me" by Bonnie Raitt (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 22[*] Federal Way, WA[*] +2221 / xx[*] "Zero Screen Time"[/list][*]Paul Kim ELIMINATED 24TH PLACE  1st Audition: "If I Ever Fall In Love" by Shai (Y-Y-Y) (2:32) SF Top 12 (4th): "Careless Whisper" by George Michael (N-N-N) (ELIM) <ul type="square">[*] Age 25[*] Saratoga, CA[*] +2139 / xx[*] "Poolboy"[/list][/list] Audition City Information <ul type="square"> Minneapolis Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 17 # of contestants with televised auditions: 7 # of contestants in final 24: 0m, 1f # of contestants in final 12: 0m, 0f Seattle Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 14 # of contestants with televised auditions: 7 # of contestants in final 24: 3m, 2f # of contestants in final 12: 2m, 1f Birmingham Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 20 # of contestants with televised auditions: 5 # of contestants in final 24: 1m, 0f # of contestants in final 12: 1m, 0f Memphis Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 22 # of contestants with televised auditions: 5 # of contestants in final 24: 2m, 4f # of contestants in final 12: 1m, 3f Los Angeles Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 42 # of contestants with televised auditions: 3 # of contestants in final 24: 3m, 1f # of contestants in final 12: 1m, 0f New York City Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 35 # of contestants with televised auditions: 10 # of contestants in final 24: 3m, 2f # of contestants in final 12: 1m, 1f San Antonio Auditions # of contestants admitted to Hollywood: 22 # of contestants with televised auditions: 5 # of contestants in final 24: 0m, 2f # of girls in final 24: 0m, 1f[/list] Appendix B: Previous AI results Season 5 (2006) Top 12 Rank. Name - Gender - Hometown - Age 1. Taylor Hicks - M - Birmingham, AL - 29 2. Katherine McPhee - F - Sherman Oaks, CA - 22 3. Elliot Yamin - M - Richmond, VA - 27 4. Chris Daughtry - M - McLeansville, NC - 26 5. Paris Bennett - F - Fayetteville, GA - 17 6. Kellie Pickler - F - Albemarle, NC - 19 7. Ace Young - M - Denver, CO - 25 8. Bucky Covington - M - Rockingham, NC - 28 9. Mandisa - F - Antioch, TN - 29 10. Lisa Tucker - F - Anaheim, CA - 16 11. Kevin Covais - M - Levittown, NY - 17 12. Melissa McGhee - F - Tampa, FL - 21 Season 4 (2005) Top 12 Rank. Name - Gender - Hometown - Age 1. Carrie Underwood - F - Checotah, OK - 21 2. Bo Bice - M - Helena, AL - 29 3. Vonzell Solomon - F - Fort Myers, FL - 21 4. Anthony Fedorov - M - Trevose, PA - 19 5. Scott Savol - M - Shaker Heights, OH - 28 6. Constantine Maroulis - M - New York, NY - 29 7. Anwar Robinson - M - East Orange, NJ - 25 8. Nadia Turner - F - Miami, FL - 28 9. Nikko Smith - M - Town & Country, MO - 22 10. Jessica Sierra - F - Tampa, FL - 19 11. Mikalah Gordon - F - Las Vegas, NV - 17 12. Lindsey Cardinale - F - Ponchatoula, LA - 20 Season 3 (2004) Top 12 Rank. Name - Gender - Hometown - Age 1. Fantasia Barrino - F - High Point, NC - 19 2. Diana DeGarmo - F - Snelville, GA - 16 3. Jasmine Trias - F - Mililani, HI - 17 4. LaToya London - F - Oakland, CA - 25 5. George Huff - M - New Orleans, LA - 22 6. John Stevens - M - East Amherst, NY - 16 7. Jennifer Hudson - F - Chicago, IL - 22 8. Jon Peter Lewis - M - Rexburg, ID - 24 9. Camile Velasco - F - Maui, HI - 18 10. Amy Adams - F - Bakersfield, CA - 24 11. Matthew Rogers - M - Rancho Cucamonga, CA - 25 12. Leah LaBelle - F - Seattle, WA - 17 Season 2 (2003) Top 12 Rank. Name - Gender - Hometown - Age 1. Ruben Studdard - M - Birmingham, AL - 25 2. Clay Aiken - M - Raleigh, NC - 24 3. Kimberley Locke - F - Nashville, TN - 25 4. Josh Gracin - M - Oceanside, CA - 22 5. Trenyce - F - Memphis, TN - 23 6. Carmen Rasmusen - F - Bountiful, UT - 18 7. Kimberley Caldwell - F - Katy, TX - 21 8. Rickey Smith - M - Keene, TX - 23 9. Corey Clark - M - Nashville, TN - 22 DISQUALIFIED 10. Julia DeMato - F - Brookfield, CT - 24 11. Charles Grigsby - M - Oberlin, OH - 24 12. Vanessa Olivarez - F - Atlanta, GA - 22 Season 1 (2002) Top 10 Rank. Name - Gender - Hometown - Age 1. Kelly Clarkson - F - Burleson, TX - 20 2. Justin Guarini - M - Doylestown, PA - 23 3. Nikki McKibbin - F - Grand Prairie, TX - 23 4. Tamyra Gray - F - Takoma Park, MD - 23 5. RJ Helton - M - Cumming, GA - 21 6. Christina Christian - F - Brooklyn, NY - 21 7. Ryan Starr - F - Sunland, CA - 19 8. A.J. Gil - M - San Diego, CA - 17 9. Jim Verraros - M - Chicago, IL - 19 10. Ejay Day - M - Lawrenceville, GA - 20 Please PM me with questions, comments, criticisms and dead link reports! Thanks! - mynamewastaken
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#6
02-05-2007, 07:43 PM
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Re: American Idol Wagering FAQ - PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING
Blake Lewis audition link is broken.
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#8
02-21-2007, 03:57 PM
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Re: American Idol Wagering FAQ - PLEASE READ BEFORE POSTING
bump to remind people that audition clips are here.
someone who i respect in idol picking seems to be a fan of jordin sparks. i had to rewatch her audition to remind me who she was. she certainly is one that i won't have an opinion on until i see her tonight. she could be the first... or the worst.
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