Folding bottom set vs 2p2er

[HitNRunPoster]

This is a kinda sick hand. This guy is a tough SSSH player. However, I felt that there was enough honesty on the flop to make this a good river fold.

Paradise Poker
Limit Holdem Ring game
Limit: $0.25/$0.5
10 players
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is UTG with 3[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
Hero calls, UTG+1 calls, 2 folds, <font color="#cc0000">MP2 raises</font>, MP3 folds, CO calls, 2 folds, BB calls, Hero calls, UTG+1 calls.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] 3[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (10.4SB, 5 players)
BB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Hero bets</font>, UTG+1 calls, 3 folds.

Turn: 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (6.2BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero calls.

River: 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (8.2BB, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">UTG+1 bets</font>, Hero folds.
Uncalled bets: 1BB returned to UTG+1.

Results:
Final pot: 8.2BB

[fretelöo]

HUH?

Why aren't you betting the turn?
As played, why aren't you betting the river?
As played, why didn't you call?

[Jago]

You dont think he has KQ-KTs? 55-66?

Bet the turn please

[Gib]

c/r turn.

Edit: I prolly would of c/r the flop, since you didn't I'd go for the screwplay

[ILoveShowGirls]

*Grunch*

Raise the turn. Make him tell you what he has, if your reraised then you're beat. He could easily be betting out to see where he is at or semi bluffing here.
No real need to assume that he has hit the flush, though if he's a tough player as you say, then maybe he did limp in with a Suited Ace or SCs, maybe even 43s, I wonder if he wouldn't have raised the flop with a flush draw, he also may have limped in with AKo and have tptk with the nut ace.
Even so I think you are probably ahead here.

As played call the river.

[Bona]

I am check raising the turn. If he really is that tricky then I probably call a turn 3 bet and check/call the river. You are ahead here more than you are behind IMO. He didn't really show strength anywhere. You indicated weakness by check calling the turn. His turn bet and river bet could be any pair or sometimes even less given your play.

[BigBadBabar]

not sure if this is a joke post? i think it's a pretty bad fold.

[Bona]

You are probably right it may be a put on. If not it may be the worst case of MUBS complicated by snakebite I've seen.

[HitNRunPoster]

this isn't a joke post.

[HitNRunPoster]

Yeah, this is weird, I was trying to put him on a range and I basically couldn't come up with anything that I beat.

However, with KTs accounting for 3 hands, I really can't afford to fold. [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img]

Like, folding probably cost me almost an entire BB here (3/16 hands = equity of 1.9125bb in a pot of 10.2bb, therefore a loss of 0.9215bb by folding.)

Thanks. [img]/images/graemlins/blush.gif[/img]

This is if you put villain on:

Trump: QTs, QJs, T9s, 98s, A8s, A7s, A6s, A5s, A2s
Suited hands: KTs
Sets: 44.

While A4s/A3s might bet the turn, it probably won't bet the river, so I didn't include that in his range.

When I bet the flop, he can put me on:
All the AXs of trump listed above including A9s, 44, 33.

I'm not sure if I can put A9s in his range. I feel that it would have raised PF, but if he would overlimp with A9s then that makes my fold more correct (but still wrong) (loses 0.8bb by folding).

Note: When I say that something is a mistake of 0.8bb, that's not belittling that mistake: a 0.8bb mistake is a HUGE error... basically a catastrophe. When someone calls incorrectly with a gutshot they're probably making a much smaller mistake than an incorrect fold in this hand, to give you an idea.