My Thoughts on NFL Week One Playoffs

Big Al · #1 01-03-2006, 12:25 PM

As a general rule, upsets tend to happen in the first round and the favorites tend to cover in the second round. With that in mind, lets look at the first round playoff games:

Jacksonville (plus 8)@ New England: I dont think Jacksonville can pull the upset against the Pats. Just too much playoff experience with N.E. I do think the Jags defense can keep it close and it seems NE usually has close playoff games (which they almost always seem to find a way to win). I think you have to lean towards the Jags and the points, but I think there are better spots this week.

Washington (plus 2 1/2) at Tampa Bay: Tough game that could go either way. Washington playing very well, which Bucs team will show up? I think Gruden will have them ready to fire but this is a game I think you have to stay away from-too tough to call.

Carolina (plus 2 1/2) @ NY Giants: This is the game I like this week. I think Carolina will beat them straight up. The Panthers seem to have come together very well under Fox this season (one of the most underrated coaches in the league) and they remind me of their Superbowl team of a few years ago. Plus, I think the playoff pressure will get to Manning. This is the game I am betting heavy this week.

Pitt (minus 3) at Cinncy: Line opened at Pitt plus one and has had a big swing. It seems like the Bengals are a year away and their defense is very shaky for a playoff team. Still, its hard to bet against a home team playoff dog. This is a game to stay far away from.

So, one large money line bet on Carolina, one small bet on the Jags, and stay away from the other two.--Big Al--

mtdurham · #2 01-03-2006, 12:43 PM

Personally, I like the Giants.

I'm a Panther fan, but our run defense is SOFT and our running game is non-existent.

Delhomme is a turnover princess right now and the Giants have an opportunistic defense.

I think the Giants roll and the worse the weather is the more they win by...

Kneel B4 Zod · #3 01-03-2006, 12:50 PM

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Plus, I think the playoff pressure will get to Manning

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now what would make you say that [img]/images/graemlins/wink.gif[/img]

I agree with all you said, but I like the Steelers this week

bills217 · #4 01-03-2006, 01:17 PM

So, you don't think Jacksonville can win, but you do think they will cover the 8? It seems to me that if they are likely to cover the 8, then they are likely to win given a lucky bounce or 50-yard pass interference penalty...[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

Kneel B4 Zod · #5 01-03-2006, 01:24 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, you don't think Jacksonville can win, but you do think they will cover the 8? It seems to me that if they are likely to cover the 8, then they are likely to win given a lucky bounce or 50-yard pass interference penalty...[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

over the last 70 times a home team was favored by 8 points, that home favorite is exactly 50% against the spread. they have won the game outright 80% of the time.

I may put a moneyline bet down, but I, like Big Al, am leery of -8.

MacGuyV · #6 01-03-2006, 01:53 PM

I don't really like these games either. I kinda like the Skins, but I'm worried that their bandwagon is filling up after I was driving it all by myself 3 weeks ago.
Is it just me or do the Bucs suck at home? Seems like they've been just as good or better on the road under Gruden.

NhlNut · #7 01-03-2006, 03:43 PM

Thanks Big Al,
good to see you back.

Easy E · #8 01-03-2006, 04:08 PM

Welcome back! [img]/images/graemlins/grin.gif[/img] I was just thinking I was going to miss your work during the playoffs!

Hopefully everything at home worked out for you to its best resolution. Good to see you posting again! [img]/images/graemlins/cool.gif[/img]

Easy E · #9 01-03-2006, 04:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
So, you don't think Jacksonville can win, but you do think they will cover the 8? It seems to me that if they are likely to cover the 8, then they are likely to win given a lucky bounce or 50-yard pass interference penalty...[img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

[/ QUOTE ]

So, they'd be going for 2 points after every TD? [img]/images/graemlins/confused.gif[/img]

I'm not sure how you jump from -8 to straight up win, based on luck.

Easy E · #10 01-03-2006, 04:12 PM

[ QUOTE ]
I don't really like these games either. I kinda like the Skins, but I'm worried that their bandwagon is filling up after I was driving it all by myself 3 weeks ago.
Is it just me or do the Bucs suck at home? Seems like they've been just as good or better on the road under Gruden.

[/ QUOTE ]

What worries me about the Skins is their last game, playing to get into the playoffs. They didn't look too good against the Eagles, playing second-teamers who had to give them 6 turnovers (2 for TDs, if I rememember correctly).