Implied Odds question

[timtowdi]

Hello, Sorry, I just have a quick question about implied odds .. Lets say you are playing 100NL and you happen to be HU on the flop with $100 stacks, the pot is $8 and your opponent bets $5. You have 78 on a board of 6 10 A rainbow, and are deciding how much you have to win for this to call to be profitable.

My thought process goes something like ..
$5 x 10.5 = $52.50 - $8 = $44.50 The amount I need to make up on future rounds of betting to breakeven. Now my question is, can this $44.50 include my own money? or does this have to be all profit meaning the pot will have to be over $100? .. doesn't sound right .. I believe my problem is im taking into account two rounds of betting but only the odds for 1 more card .. can someone help out?

Thanks!

T

[mvdgaag]

you'll loose 52.50 trying to get there, so your total winnings should be 52.50, or 44.50 from this point to break even. Your winnings come from the pot and your opponents, so NOT from your own stack!

Suppose you call on the flop and hit a blank on the turn; the money from the call is no longer yours, but belongs to the pot.

The pot is now: $18 and your opponent bets $12.

$12 * 10.5 (roughly the same) = $126 ->
$126 - $18 = $108

Thus you will need to bet/raise to $108 on the river and get called to break even. So you should fold on the turn, because your opponent hasn't got that anymore and even if he did you'd never get him to call that mutch.
Not folding on the flop was a mistake as well, but this example was to show you how the money in the pot is no longer yours and why you need to win the money it costs you when you miss from somewhere else if you hit.

GL

[timtowdi]

Thanks for the response, so from my original question, the projected pot would need to be $8 + $44.50 * 2 = $97 by showdown to be breakeven?

And if we reach the turn, by your example, the pot would need to be $18 + $108 * 2 = $234 by showdown for the turn call to be breakeven correct?

I understand this is a strange way of looking at it and only applies to HU situations but I'm just trying to estimate what the final pot size should be when deciding to call at any given momment.

Thanks,

[mvdgaag]

Yes, your last calculations are correct. That is, if you are certain you win when you catch your out. Don't forget that it's as you name it 'the projected POT'. Not 'the projected pot IF HE CALLS'. So you should be certain he pays you off 100% of the time or you have to compensate. A better definition for this 'projected pot' is 'your average winnings when you catch your card'.

GL

[SGspecial]

[ QUOTE ]
Yes, your last calculations are correct. That is, if you are certain you win when you catch your out. Don't forget that it's as you name it 'the projected POT'. Not 'the projected pot IF HE CALLS'. So you should be certain he pays you off 100% of the time or you have to compensate. A better definition for this 'projected pot' is 'your average winnings when you catch your card'.

GL

[/ QUOTE ]

Agreed. This is a really good illustration of why you shouldn't chase gutshot draws in NL. Villain has to have a big enough hand to call very large bets if you get there, but then he (presumably) also has some outs to redraw against you.

[winterGT]

Only way to make this play is if you are expecting to steal the pot on a later street a good % of the time if you miss.