Bellagio $1080 Tourn - Early Chip Lead

[Captain Freedom]

What do you do in this spot?

Bellagio daily tournament ($1080) - a good solid structure

You believe your edge is significant over the field - in the top 5 players of 90 person field (4 previous entries resulted in 1 win & 2 final tables)

Just started Level 3.

Blinds: $100 - $200
Next Level: $100 - $200 w/ $25 ante

Starting Chips: $5K

Hero Stack: $14.5K
Villain Stack: $11.2K

Rest of Table Effective Stacks: $3K

Hero – Image is strong TAG. Showed only premium hands. Playing mostly position poker to accumulate chips. Has correctly announced player’s hands on multiple occasions before shown. As a result, any preflop or postflop resistance from opponents usually means a real hand.

Villain – a gambler and calling station (primary way he acquired his chips)

UTG ($2800)
UTG + 1 ($3200)
MP (2200)
CO (Hero) ($14500)
SB ($1200)
BB (Villain) ($11200)

Hero dealt A [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]K [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] in CO

Preflop:

UTG, UTG +1, MP limp
CO (Hero) raises to $1200
SB folds
BB (Villain) calls
UTG, UTG +1, MP fold

Flop: ($3100) K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5 [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]

Villain bets $5000

You pause to consider whether Villain is making a strong lead with a set. You tell Villain his flush draw is no good. Your flush draw read is confirmed when you see immediate fear...

Your line?

[Bakes]

lol. u really thinking about folding this?

[ZJ123]

im all in.

[registrar]

Bakes, I'd assumed the question was how to make sure we get the rest of his chips.

Well, if the flush read is correct he's committed now (which doesn't mean he'll call) but he won't be if the turn is a blank so we push.

[Fiksdal]

When callingstations start betting, I usually get suspicious. They should be given a lot more credit than when they take their casual check/call line.

Our hand is quite strong here though, and the read about villain being a gambler doesn't make things worse.

I agree with the vey reasonable post of Registrar. Going all-in on the flop here is certainly the most optimal play.

[beenben]

(w/o reading other replies)

He's a calling station, and he just bet half his chips. If you push, he's calling, even though he's behind 62-37 (according to cardplayer's calculator). if he stays scared and folds to your "set" you get 5k in free chips. If he calls and you win, you're the one who's captured all those juicy chips instead of letting them go to one of the 3k players, you've almost doubled up. If he calls and you lose, you're M is still OK (around 10) and people will still be scared of you.

seems like an ez push.

[Beachman42]

[ QUOTE ]
When callingstations start betting, I usually get suspicious. They should be given a lot more credit than when they take their casual check/call line.

Our hand is quite strong here though, and the read about villain being a gambler doesn't make things worse.

I agree with the vey reasonable post of Registrar. Going all-in on the flop here is certainly the most optimal play.

[/ QUOTE ]

I'm trying to think up another line here, but cannot. I beat him into the pot with all my chips.

Me thinks this might be a BBV disguised post due to Hero's read on himself. Unless you hold the stone cold nuts, then there is always a chance of losing your chips.

[StevoC]

I wouldn't consider a flush draw tell to be a fearful reaction towards a question, especially in this tournament.
If your read on villian is accurate, which I assume it is, then I could see villian holding mid pockets or nothing, just betting out representing a king. I don't think he'd bet out 5k with a set and judging from his MO he wouldn't cold call preflop with aces, so I'd definitely push this.
If he calls and you win, you're in great position.
If he calls and you lose, still alive with over 10XBB.
If he folds then you just picked up a nice sized pot without showing, adding to your imagine and your stack.

[deankeaton7]

If you're asking what to do if you "know" he has a flush draw, then I think thats pretty clear.

The question is, what are you doing raising to 1200 with AK if your going to fold to this bet on this flop?

[Cornell Fiji]

[ QUOTE ]
If you're asking what to do if you "know" he has a flush draw, then I think thats pretty clear.

The question is, what are you doing raising to 1200 with AK if your going to fold to this bet on this flop?

[/ QUOTE ]

I can't improve on this post.