The Anatomy of a Misplayed Hand - Tunica Circuit Event

DP388 · #1 01-15-2007, 05:58 PM

I started writing this as a post to find out if I should make a final all-in call or not and then I realized how bad every line of this hand was (at least I think so). This is not a situation I normally get in, but I was playing on auto-pilot and my line felt right at the time.

I’d love to hear comments on the entire line (as played and my post-hand analysis).

Saturday $500 buy-in at the Tunica WSOP Circuit Event
750 entries, around 300 left, 72 paid

Blinds 100/200 + 25, playing 11 handed. Blinds go up every 50 minutes and we’re about 20 minutes into this level. Next level is 200/400 + 50 (however, at the time I thought it was going to be 150/300 + 25)

I have about 6K

Villain is an older guy in his late 50s who has been at the table about 3 orbits. He has not played a pot yet. It looked like he had about 5-6K.

My image is TAG, but the villain has probably only seen me in two hands. Both were limped pots when I was in the SB. One hand I check-raised and took it down without showing and the other I bet out and folded to a button raise.

The Hand

Action: Folds to a loose MP player with about 2,800. He’s pretty predictable and likes to see the flop with suited cards, connectors, etc. He will almost always call a raise after limping. He doesn’t’ know how to manage his stack, and has made loose calls with a short stack before.

MP limps. I’m in the hijack with K [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]. I feel like I can stack MP if I hit the right flop, so I decide to call.

Villain is on the button and makes it 800. MP calls, I call. I almost always fold here, but I also know there are specific flops I’m looking for and decide I have the stack to make the call.

 Correct Play: Fold to the raise pre-flop. I only have about 10M and will need to commit too many chips to continue this hand or be prepared to get it all-in on a draw unless I flop a monster.

Flop is 9 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

Action: MP checks and I decide to bet 1K into the 2,975 pot. My reasoning was that even though Villain is tight, it doesn’t mean he has a big pair. If he has AK or AQ, he is likely going to fold and it didn’t look like the type of flop that MP hit. I didn’t want to commit too much of my stack and I could possibly get away from it if villain pushed.

 Correct Play: In hindsight, this bet is horrible. What am I representing? It’s too small to get a fold and looks exactly like a flush draw bet. And even though it’s small, this bet plus the pre-flop call commits 1/3 of my stack. Now that I’m in the hand I should probably check and evaluate based on Villain’s play. I might get a free card, or I can push/fold depending on his bet size.

Action: Villain insta-shoves for 4,275 and MP folds. Now there is 8,250 in the pot (I actually miscalculated the pot at around 7K) and it cost me 3,275 more giving me 2.5 - 1.

I decide to fold. My reasoning was that even though I’m getting good odds, I can’t be sure that my ten is live and it would leave me with about 1K. This was an “accumulate or die” kind of decision and I felt like I could pick better spots than this and could easily work with a 4,200 stack. However, had I known the blinds would be 200/400 next, my decision would likely be different.

Board: 9c 9d 4c

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 41.822% 41.77% 00.05% 14886 19.50 { KcTc }
Hand 1: 58.178% 58.12% 00.05% 20715 19.50 { TT+, 88-77 }

 Correct Play: I really need to call here. This is a good time to chip up and I’m getting the odds to do so. The biggest stack at the table had about 8K and this would put me in a dominate position. I’m okay if I fold, but if I call and win, I will be at 12,450.

What do you guys think?