NFL Championship Lines are out....thoughts?

[Phanekim]

Bears -2 and Colts -3...(taken from bodog)

[wiper]

i know it's not a pure tease, but i'm looking at bumping up both underdogs to 8 and 9...

[funkytown]

I think that as long as NE continues to be a dog, I'm betting them. The way I see it is The Pats keep getting disrespected and my wallet keeps getting bigger.

[sweetjazz]

I think I saw that the initial line on the NFC game was Bears -3. I am a little biased (see location), but I think New Orleans is the favorite in this game. The only real matchup that I think Chicago might be able to exploit is Bernard Berrian vs. Fred Thomas. But Grossman is going to have the pressure of putting up 28-30+ points against a team that stops the run okay and rushes the passer pretty well. On defense, the loss of safety Mike Brown for Chicago is going to make things tough. One thing Brian Urlacher is known for is anticipating whether a play is pass or run -- it will be interesting to see how he does against New Orleans, which often passes on running downs and runs on passing downs.

The NE-Indy line seems about right to me. I don't think the history means a whole lot, whereas the home field advantage does mean a fair amount for Indy. Specifically, being guaranteed of playing on a field that is not subject to bad weather conditions helps the timing of their routes, and the lack of crowd noise when on offense should help Manning and crew get into a rhythm offensively. The Pats secondary is not what it was in the past, with Ty Law departed and Rodney Harrison hurt. Asante Samuel can only do so much for them. The big question mark is whether the Indy defense is for real in its last two performances or whether Belichik and Brady will be able to pick it apart. I honestly think if I had to bet the AFC line, I would take Indy, but I think the line is about right.

[Phanekim]

So far I've been 4-2 in my bets. Passed up 2 games.

Only two I've lost were the Sea at -3 against Dal. and SD -4.5 against NE.

Both games I thought Sea and SD dominated.

In regards to the game, I think Saints def is definately vulnerable here. I think CHi will run on them handily. Also, I think the Chi def isn't in peak form, but can match NO's speed and can stop the run at home. Clearly a Bear pick in this game at -2.

The other game, I'm leaning towards the colts. Colts have won last two games against Pats, both at foxboro. -3 might not favor a picky bettor like me, might have to wait later in the week to see if the bostonians start pushing the line down to -2.5...Otherwise...I'd have to go with the colts in this one. But I'd have to agree...that line is right where'd I'd put it.

I'd pick colts mainly cause I feel that the Colts will want it more. These teams know each other too well...it might come down to a war of wills. Don't get me wrong about the will of the pats...but the colts...they know it...and their fans won't let them forget it. Great game...I'm salivating over this game. Can't wait for 60 minutes of absolute intense football.

[iggymcfly]

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I'd pick colts mainly cause I feel that the Colts will want it more. These teams know each other too well...it might come down to a war of wills.

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This is stupid. It's a game to decide who goes to the Super Bowl. Both teams "want it" plenty. Motivation can be a deciding factor in a Week 13 game when one team's trying to get to the playoffs and the other has nothing to play for. But in this kind of game, it's ridiculous to think that the Patriots have been practicing since June, playing since August, and now "don't really care" if they make the Super Bowl. If either one of these teams were not to play up to capacity, it would be the Colts since they'll have so much extra pressure, having never made the Super Bowl before.

As for the actual game, I like the Pats given the line. I think fair is about PK with the Patriots being the best team in the NFL according to Sagarin, home field historically being worth less in the postseason, and the slight psychological edge they have. After watching Peyton Manning routinely miss open receivers against the Ravens, I'm not very confident he'll play well against NE, knowing that this game may decide the way his whole career will be remembered. Seems like the pressure is getting to him a little here.

I'm hoping to get +3.5 on the Mansion exchange, but no one's taken me up on my offer yet.

[27offsuit]

I predicted Indy to go off at -1 with the reasoning being NE would be favored by 2 at home.

I think -3 is a bit high. Do you really think it would be a Pick'em at Gillette?

Either way, NE as a dog vs. Manning/Dungy is a no-brainer so far...

[Trencherman]

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I predicted Indy to go off at -1 with the reasoning being NE would be favored by 2 at home.

I think -3 is a bit high. Do you really think it would be a Pick'em at Gillette?

Either way, NE as a dog vs. Manning/Dungy is a no-brainer so far...

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Given that Indy is a 3-point favorite at home, the game is assumed to be a pick 'em on a neutral field. Your reasoning that NE would only be a 2-point favorite at home actually suggests betting IND -3.

[iggymcfly]

Not sure how widely accepted this is, but Sagarin currently has home advantage at 1.25 for the postseason. I think the implication is that a lot of the value of home advantage comes from motivation, and that is nullified during the playoffs when both teams are playing as hard as they can to try and move up to the next round.

[Trencherman]

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Not sure how widely accepted this is, but Sagarin currently had home advantage at 1.25 for the postseason. I think the implication is that a lot of the value of home advantage comes from motivation, and that is nullified during the playoffs when both teams are playing as hard as they can to try and move up to the next round.

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What you say is certainly reasonable, and I agree with it. For some reason, I assumed 27offsuit was valuing the home field at 3. Of course, home field for Indy is probably worth more than it is for the other remaining teams.