AA -- Riv decision

[Bort99]

We're usually beat here, but I suck so I just about always call. Look alright?

Full Tilt Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.10/$0.25
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Hero: $38.25
UTG+1: $23.20
CO: $31.55
Button: $21.30
SB: $38.20
BB: $27.65

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Hero raises to $1</font>, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, 3 folds.

Flop: 5[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($2.35, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $1.75</font>, CO calls.

Turn: 2[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($5.85, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">Hero bets $4</font>, CO calls.

River: 6[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($13.85, 2 players)
Hero checks, <font color="#cc0000">CO bets $10.25</font>, Hero folds.

[Unknown Soldier]

reads on villain?

[Bort99]

No significant read. I think only a totally clueless villain changes the answer.

[Nick C]

You're getting better than 2:1, and I tend to pay off, hoping for a worse PP or even a stubbornly played AK, which is unlikely but not out of the question.

I'll admit, though, that last night what I would have been shown is a flopped boat or possibly quads [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img].

[nh5150]

Hand looks like a bit of a nightmare. You have any reads on villain?
Against a complete unknown i would have carried on betting on the river the way you played it. You fired on every other street.
Maybe he had 55, maybe he had A4. See what he has and move on to the next hand.

[Kasane]

Why do you put him on a better hand? Readless, I would vbet the river too. A lot of stuff calls you here, and everything that has slow played raises you. I think the calling hands way outnumber the slow-play hands.

[Numfar]

I call. Your check on the River could have induced a "bluff" from 76 or an overpair. There isn't too much to be scared of unless we know he slowplays all the way to the River.

BTW, if you had bet the River and he raised then I probably fold but as played (and I check there as well to try to get value from missed draws), I almost always call.

[King Car]

Meh, I probably call here.

However, I like a bet/fold line better than a check/call on the river.

[Bort99]

Okay, guys, I'll fess up. In reality, I called. Villain flipped over A3o, amazingly enough. I think this is a fold and here's why.

Yes, villain is obviously bad. He played A3o to a raise, and that alone creates the impression that we should be value-betting our overpair in this situation.

But he fact is that he called real bets on two streets. That means he has something. What could it be? Most likely a pocket pair, but 22-66 already beat us. 77-JJ probably just check behind on the river.

This leaves QQ and KK as the only hands we beat that might logically put out that strong river bet. And c'mon, most villains would raise those up way earlier in the hand. We're getting 2:1, but I think we're beaten way more often than one time in three.

Also, I don't like the bet/fold the river line. To put out a meaningful bet on the river, we're putting in nearly our whole effective stack anyway. Folding is really, really hard if we get raised.

And finally, I accidentally posted this in MSNL earlier today (had that forum open, didn't notice when I hit "post"). There, I was told that I was obviously posting in the wrong forum, and to, duh, fold.

The question is whether our micro opponents play so badly that this is a call. Readless, I don't think it is.

[rael]

I would definitely call this and then spend the next 15 minutes steaming about how poorly villian played his hand if I lost.

A 3 is highly unlikely (though not impossible at these stakes). A 5 is a bit more probable, but still unlikely given the fact that he didn't raise the flop or the turn (and there are only 2 left in the deck).

I think you'll see A6, A4, A2 or an overpair (an overpair more often than not) more than often enough to call.

You've got the best possible two pair. I don't think you can fold to villian's first sign of aggression on this board.

In fact, I think the only reason to check here is the fact that villian might bet with more hands than he'll call with. Given that, this call is a no-brainer.