(PS $3/$6): River Fold

Scotch78 · #1 01-14-2007, 10:20 AM

UTG and CO are both 20% VP$IP or lower, though I only have 40 hands on UTG.

The button is very loose, and somewhat aggressive. I've seen him raise a limper with Q9s, but his PFR% is not high enough for that to be a standard move for him. I have some other reads which confirm this sort of thing . . . he is capable of making odd moves, but they are the exception rather than the rule.

I do not know how likely he would be to bluff the river, but he is capable of it.

PokerStars 3/6 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
UTG calls, 1 fold, CO calls, Button raises, Hero calls, 1 fold, UTG calls, CO calls.

Flop: (9 SB) K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 5[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], 7[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (4 players)
Hero checks, UTG checks, CO checks, Button bets, Hero raises, UTG folds, CO folds, Button calls.

Turn: (6.50 BB) Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero bets, Button calls.

River: (8.50 BB) A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] (2 players)
Hero checks, Button bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 9.50 BB

Scott

Nick C · #2 01-14-2007, 11:19 AM

With UTG and CO being so tight, it seems like maybe the thing to do is try to get the isolation over with preflop. But you were there and I wasn't, and it's possible my recent venture into NL has led me to overestimate your preflop folding equity.

Anyway, on the river, I'd pay Villain off [img]/images/graemlins/tongue.gif[/img] -- basically because you're getting 9.5 to 1 and he's unpredictable. I mean, I can't really put him on much that you're beating. Stubborn pocket 4's, maybe? 98s?

But the whole point of the flop checkraise was to get HU and showdown, and I'd stick to the plan.

Scotch78 · #3 01-14-2007, 11:31 AM

[ QUOTE ]
With UTG and CO being so tight, it seems like maybe the thing to do is try to get the isolation over with preflop. But you were there and I wasn't, and it's possible my recent venture into NL has led me to overestimate your preflop folding equity.

[/ QUOTE ]

I actually thought about this one for 2-3 seconds at the table, and whether I was right or wrong, my intuition was that I wouldn't be able to isolate pre-flop.

Scott

djmeehan · #4 01-14-2007, 11:47 AM

I prefer the flop checkraise line to trying to isolate preflop. Too often you get cold called in 1 or 2 places playing in a bloated pot OOP. This way if the flop looks favorable it is easier to isolate than if the pot gets too large and easier to fold if the flop or action is unfavorable.

Also i pay off the river getting 9.5 to one thinking you are good more often than that but not much.

Buckmulligan · #5 01-14-2007, 12:32 PM

scotch-

i play it the same

Burnsabre · #6 01-14-2007, 02:15 PM

is there anything wrong with b/f this river? I see TT and JJ dropping here, maybe even QJ or QT... If button's WTSD is less than say 35%, I b/f.

Wolfram · #7 01-14-2007, 02:42 PM

both b/f and c/c > c/f vs. this opponent imo. He will autobet with air if checked to on the river.

jstill · #8 01-14-2007, 08:50 PM

I 3bet this always preflop. im not sure why some think villain will autobet air on the river making ck call be better than ck fold, not much was given for a read to assume that (altho its not improbable IMO).

I think as played check-raising the flop is best as is betting the turn. I think his range after the turn is either Kx AJ AT Qx A7 A5 JT TT JJ or 66 and 88. ur not doing very well against his likely range even going into the river.

if u think he mite be able to ditch some better pair hands after the A falls bet folding could be ok, but im skeptical vs most opponents they make these kinds of folds once theyve gotten to the river. Even on the A falling they dont usually think it is likely to have improved you given ur line.

While i think many players autobluff with hopeless hands when you check to them on the river, there really arent many worse hands for him to bluff here making check call not only undesirable but probably -EV. JT got there and there was no fd or even bdfd. He mite make some random bluff with a 7 trying to fold out a better hand you could have or something but most of his raising range has paired up higher than a 9 and is showing down.

conclusion: as played i ck fold the river also, but the hand probably plays out far differently if u 3bet preflop which i would have.

jstill · #9 01-14-2007, 09:02 PM

if the river was a K a Q or a brick im not sure if id like ck call or ck fold. depends a bit on the villain i guess, if i thought he could raise bluff or if he regularly bet the river when i had initiative and checked to him, id lean towards ck call. If he was more honest and loose and didnt valuebet really light when ck to (ie would bet some worse pair hands a fair percentage of the time if i checked) id go bet fold since he ll valuebet a K or Q if i check anyways mine as well get value from A7 or 88 or whatever it is you see idiots taking to showdown. My default here would probably be bet fold due to the board being mostly drawless (hands like AJ AT would continue after that turn however not sure if they ll bluff when ck'd to tho since they have showdown value and wouldnt expect you to fold a better hand) and some handreading.

bbbushu · #10 01-14-2007, 10:18 PM

i play identically:

after we check, i can't see villain bluffing too often after how much strength we've shown so i think it's right to fold even though the pot is somewhat sizeable. maybe if we had K2 or something i would understand using the river ace to induce a bluff/ insulate our hand from being bluff-raised on the end. i dont think our hand can beat anything that will bet here.

there's not nearly enough hands that will call us that we beat so there's really no reason to bet because there is almost no value in it. every time we get raised we obv fold. seeing as the button is "very loose" there isn't a very good chance they'll fold a hand we beat, either.

this appears cut/dry to me

nh
bbbu