AQ vs. LAG, flop a gutshot

kross · #1 02-07-2006, 08:23 AM

Lately, my fold to river bet stat is pretty high (50%), so I've been going through looking at hands where I've folded the river.

Villain is 70/28/1.3 after only about 70 hands.

Party Poker 3/6 Hold'em (6 max, 6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img].
1 fold, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 3 folds, MP calls.

Flop: (7.33 SB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img], T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero bets, MP calls.

Turn: (4.66 BB) 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP checks, Hero checks.

This seemed like a good time to take a free card, instead of keep firing.

River: (4.66 BB) 9[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] (2 players)
MP bets, Hero folds.

Final Pot: 5.66 BB

I missed my draws, but I have the nut no-pair. Pot isn't very big, dangerous board. Easy fold?

I know the standard line is bet the flop, bet the turn, check the river UI. But I didn't want to get C/R'd with my draw on the turn, I thought taking the free card was better.

yellowjack · #2 02-07-2006, 08:36 AM

I think taking the free showdown by betting the turn is better than the free river card. Along with the option of betting the river if we hit the straight or an ace.

silencio · #3 02-07-2006, 08:39 AM

This is more of a maniac than a LAG so although I do not think you are winning this often enough, if you've seen him bet with air when checked to, I might call this. I think you see a worse hand 20% of the time here. I am not so worried about the flush since with his stats he would have probably 3-bet the flop with a draw. I guess it really depends if he is a total maniac or a thinking maniac.

27offsooot · #4 02-07-2006, 09:54 AM

I call the river. Maniacs bet out close to 100% with any hand when u check the turn. The board pairing is very good and there are many hands u beat.