10NL Time to get away from aces on paired flop?

[Esmerelda]

Villain had played about 200 hands with me today at two different tables.

He had played a pretty solid tag (18/10/2). I hadn't seen him get out of line.

How do you play these Aces?

Poker Stars
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10
5 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
Esmerelda: $9.75
CO: $16.55
Button: $7.60
SB: $9.90
BB: $3.50

Pre-flop: (5 players) Esmerelda is UTG with A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img]
<font color="#cc0000">Esmerelda raises to $0.4</font>, 2 folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] T[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($0.9, 2 players)
SB checks, <font color="#cc0000">Esmerelda bets $0.6</font>, <font color="#cc0000">SB raises to $1.5</font>, Esmerelda ???

My numbers where pretty similar but I had made a lot of c-bets so he might have just floated me.

He had made a few loose calls of pf raises but that actually made me more nervous.


I suppose I should fold or raise here but I can't believe he will call with enough hands to make it worthwhile. I figure AK,KQ, KK, TT, KJ, KT, T9, QQ, JJ, JT, AT are his range more or less, plus the air.

I wimp out and call.

Turn: 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($3.9, 2 players)
<font color="#cc0000">SB bets $3.5</font>, Esmerelda ???

Time to go? Push? What is calling me? Now I really regret calling flop [img]/images/graemlins/frown.gif[/img].

[SnappyJoe]

I would have made it a little more on the flop, and I would have repopped him on the flop as well.

If you just call the flop you have to be ready to get your money in when a blank hits otherwise it's pointless to call the flop.

Furthermore I don't think the villains range for calling in the SB is as wide as you mention. I'm not as tight as him and I know I dump KQ, KJ, KT, T9 and atleast JT in the SB against a TAG who open raised utg. Paying 4xBB to see a flop with a mediocre hand oop isn't exactly the best move.

EDIT: Did you call down and did he show AT?

[corsakh]

Your hand is very underrepresented, hence its hard to make any conclusion. From what you posted, its very hard to put him on a ten. I mean a 18/10 does not usually call UTG raises from SB with a ten, other than TT. A check/minreraise on the flop usually indicates a monster, ie TT or KT, or a weak holding such as 88 or a draw, testing you. Because with a strong hand, such as trips or TPTK, he does not want you to draw the straight and flush outs for cheap, especially since he is OOP and would reraise more, likely even bet out.

The turn looks innocent, if he had a ten he would try to milk you little more. Pot size bet does not fit the profile.

I'd say hes on a flush draw or some pocket pair.

[AKQJ10]

[ QUOTE ]
Because with a strong hand, such as trips or TPTK, he does not want you to draw the straight and flush outs for cheap, especially since he is OOP and would reraise more, likely even bet out.

[/ QUOTE ]

Not against an aggressive player who raised preflop! In fact, Esmeralda is very likely to cbet anything worth raising on this board unless [s]he's just given up the ghost with 88 or A9s.

However, a reasonably aggressive player such as this one is only representing AK (admittedly, only a few people smooth call the raise preflop) or KQ here. I pretty much either 3-bet the flop or push this turn (basically calling the bet) until I have reason to think that he only check/raises trips.

Not to mention it would be helpful to know how he plays flopped trips. Even players with TAG stats are capable of stupidly slowplaying on this board, which would make Kx that much more likely.

[corsakh]

AKQJ10, I was not relating to the fact that villain checked, I was talking about the size of reraise. If he had something decent he would want to reraise more.

[AKQJ10]

Apologies, I didn't read what you said fully, and was responding to the "or bet out." I agree that good players will usually c/r for more, but this is in the same category as the flopped trips -- mediocre players may worry too much about losing their customer.

Just to be precise a check raise would be a raise, not a reraise -- a reraise is the second or subsequent raise, i.e. a 3-bet or higher.

[Esmerelda]

Sad to say I folded. Looking back on it this seems silly especially reading the responses. Chalk it up to experience.

[bozzer]

Tough hand. I could certainly check-raise this against a regular c bettor with a K, knowing I can represent more strength and steal a cbet a lot of the time. Plus if I then get reraised I'm almost certainly facing a T.

Since villain seems quite decent I would say a K and to a less er exent a pocket pair is a good part of her range. A reraise from you would most likely get them off a single king and you could shut down? This might not minimise your losses against a T but it might be the best move against her range?

Calling is ok, but it does mean I think you have to call one further decent bet. If 3 barrelled you can fold.

Finally the issue is made much more cloudy by the two flush flop. I think this makes a raise less good than it would be on a dry flop (since a combo draw is calling whatever you put in at these stakes, and they might miss), but it might still be the best option.

[AKQJ10]

Somehow I was under the impression that the turn bet was all-in. Folding the turn now that I understand the stack sizes is less bad since you're going to be paying off a ten almost as often as stacking a king, although I can't imagine that Kx folds to your river bet.

But I still think you're against Kx a lot here and a big draw some other times, so here's my prescription:

<ul type="square">[*]3-bet flop 50%, fold to flop push. Usually push turn yourself.[*]Call and push-raise turn 25%[*]Call and fold to turn bet 25%[/list]
I think that would make Villain sorry for the times he played Kx like this, but at least cut your losses a bit against a ten.

[bozzer]

[ QUOTE ]
But I still think you're against Kx a lot here and a big draw some other times, so here's my prescription:

<ul type="square">[*]3-bet flop 50%, fold to flop push. Usually push turn yourself.[*]Call and push-raise turn 25%[*]Call and fold to turn bet 25%[/list]
I think that would make Villain sorry for the times he played Kx like this, but at least cut your losses a bit against a ten.

[/ QUOTE ]

Are you advocating a truely mixed strategy here (where our choices from these are random), or a long term situational strategy against various villains where you select the one you feel is most appropriate in the given situation?

If you're proposing a mixed strategy, I think I'm right in saying that in a vaccuum (just one hand lifetime = no meta = rougly 10NL conditions) there is no benefit to adopting a mixed strategy versus a pure strategy (one of these lines), especially as they are unlikely to be of equal EV.

Lots of people put %s by their decisions, and I'm not really sure what they mean - I thought we could agree to play exploitatively at 10NL?