Dry board, folding AA on the turn

gonores · #1 01-12-2007, 04:51 PM

Bellagio 30/60

Everyone in this hand is too loose.

Some super-loose, slightly passive guy opens from MP, next 3 guys cold-call, I raise on the button with black AA. folded to the raiser, and everyone calls.

Flop: J73r

Original raiser bets. I don't know a whole ton about what his bets mean, but I do know that I've already seen him c/r a field to protect his top pair hand, so this bet on this board alarms me a bit. EVERYONE calls. I think and just call.

Turn is a 2 that puts a heart draw up. Original raiser bets again, next guy, who is also mildly passive, raises, Next guy, who is pretty aggro on all streets that aren't rivers, calls 2 cold. Finally someone folds, and the action is on me, and I fold.

Do I get to feel good about this? I'll post thoughts later.

thirddan · #2 01-12-2007, 05:06 PM

i don't get why you are just calling the flop...most likely the turn will have similar action so you will still not be able to protect your hand, might as well get some bets/value in and possibly get more info on MP's hand...this is a super dry board (minus some gutters) so its likely that your equity will change much on the turn...

im not crazy about your fold, your hand is quite under-played so far so MP and turnRaiser might think his AJ/KJ/QQ/KK is good, i don't think you are necessarily up against a set here...

bernie · #3 01-12-2007, 05:31 PM

[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you are just calling the flop...most likely the turn will have similar action so you will still not be able to protect your hand, might as well get some bets/value in and possibly get more info on MP's hand...this is a super dry board (minus some gutters) so its likely that your equity will change much on the turn...

im not crazy about your fold, your hand is quite under-played so far so MP and turnRaiser might think his AJ/KJ/QQ/KK is good, i don't think you are necessarily up against a set here...

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn raiser is "mildly passive". No way he's just smoothcalling KK preflop, or waiting for the turn with top pair or QQ. Possible, but I doubt it. It looks like a typical wait for the turn with a set play.

That said, I might've played the flop a little faster also.

b

W. Deranged · #4 01-12-2007, 05:42 PM

While I am definitely not a big believe in the "raising for information" camp, I actually think this is one of the (very) rare hands in which that concept actually becomes applicable.

The difficulty is: MP's bet on the is weird, and we don't know how to react to it. We do know for a fact though that we have a strong hand that can handle some investment, and we also know that due to our position we are going to be able to make pretty shrewd decisions on later streets and avoid some traps we might fall into in late position. What I think this all adds up to is that we need to use the flop as the point where we figured out what the hell is going on, and not wait until the turn. If we don't raise the flop, are we ever going to be able to put in a raise? How comfortable would we be raising a turn that's, say, a T or K, if we again see many players call in front on the turn? While we do gain something by seeing an innocuous turn card, I don't think this really classifies as a "wait for the turn situation" because the flop is so safe.

So I think we really need to raise this flop. While the flop donk is odd, we still have way too much hand to commit to basically a call down type line here. Seeing that we need to put in more aggression, the flop seems like the perfect opportunity not only to get bets from the flop callers who may dump the turn, but also a great spot to figure out where we stand with respect to the flop donker. Waiting until the turn is way too often either going to confuse us, freeze us, or cost us more than we needed to spend. So keep the raising to the street where the upside is clearly defined and the risk is minimal.

thirddan · #5 01-12-2007, 05:47 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
i don't get why you are just calling the flop...most likely the turn will have similar action so you will still not be able to protect your hand, might as well get some bets/value in and possibly get more info on MP's hand...this is a super dry board (minus some gutters) so its likely that your equity will change much on the turn...

im not crazy about your fold, your hand is quite under-played so far so MP and turnRaiser might think his AJ/KJ/QQ/KK is good, i don't think you are necessarily up against a set here...

[/ QUOTE ]

Turn raiser is "mildly passive". No way he's just smoothcalling KK preflop, or waiting for the turn with top pair or QQ. Possible, but I doubt it. It looks like a typical wait for the turn with a set play.

That said, I might've played the flop a little faster also.

b

[/ QUOTE ]

yeah, i worded it strangely...i meant those are possible hands for both turn aggressors that are likely but we still beat...

thirddan · #6 01-12-2007, 05:48 PM

also, gonores, do you remember which flop card was a heart?

are AhJh or Ah7h/3h likely hands, what about flush draw+gutshot type hands, any chance they raise the turn?

blindside · #7 01-12-2007, 07:57 PM

weird hand... you're getting about roughly 8:1 if i'm counting correctly? if the turn raiser is unimaginative and is the only-raise-the turn-with-better-than-one-pair straightforward type of player.... i pitch this as it was played....

under optimal conditions if you're ahead you win the hand roughly half the time cause i'm assuming someone has at least one of the flush draws that are out there and someone has at least a J....

i think coldcalling could be break even if you think you're ahead here roughly 1 in 4-5 times... if it's more i probably fold... just by eyeballing it... i hope someone can tell me if i'm way off here...

if you're confident that if you were to get a raise from the ppl in between here on the turn, means a set.... i don't mind a flop call.... your equity is probably the greatest on a favorable turn card.... and you could save boatloads if you're behind....

if anyone's capable of playing tricky in big pots in this hand and to a degree anyone can be some percentage of the time, i would vote raise on the flop and let the rest of the hand take care of itself....

vmacosta · #8 01-12-2007, 08:07 PM

It gets said here all the time but it deserves mentioning again: underplaying your hand in a big pot and then folding is a bad idea.

I would have played this real straightforward and raise the flop to get value from the players who likely have <5% equity. Yes, I probably would also have ended up paying off a set.

SuperPokerJedi · #9 01-13-2007, 01:37 AM

Raise flop!

CardSharpCook · #10 01-13-2007, 06:36 AM

I really don't like this. OK, let's say I'm a passive nit. I have AJ and some raised in front of me, so naturally I call 2 cold. Someone 3bet. Uh oh, he must have AK/AA-QQ. I call one more bet. Flop is J72. Damn it. I flopped top pair, and now I'm going to have to call down and pay off his aces. Guy in front of me bets? Fine, I call. Guy who 3bet PF just called? Cool, I have him beat, he's got AK. Time to protect my hand. Turn is pretty good for me, but there is a flush draw now. NOW I DEFINATELY HAVE TO RAISE! Guy bets, I raise.

I mean, right?

As for the original PF raiser - fine, he might have a set, I guess, though Jacks is the only probable set for him. He could also easily have 99-KK thinking/hoping that you have AK, and fearing that you might check behind with that.

I REALLY don't like this fold. To me, it is closer to a 3bet than a fold. I could even THINK about folding to a 4bet, but I know that I want AT LEAST 3 bets to go in on the big streets.