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#1
01-12-2007, 10:57 AM
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1/12 Basketball
Not so estatic about going 0-2 last night but I am in it for the long haul. Lots of games to look through.
GL - let's get 'em today. <u>Past History</u> <font color="green">1/10 Orlando Magic(+2.5) vs Golden State Warriors (Winner) </font> <font color="green"> 1/10 Southern Mississippi U (+9) vs Southern Methodist U (Winner)</font> 1/11 Samford (pk) vs Tennessee State (loser) 1/11 Washington State vs California (Under 123) (loser) 
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#3
01-12-2007, 03:00 PM
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Re: 1/12 Basketball
This is most likely the best bet of the week....
<font color="blue">1/12 Minnesota TWolves vs Memphis Grizzlies (Under 217)</font> Minnesota averages around 90pts a game and give up around 90pts a game...this line has been lifted up due to the linesmakers realizing that Memphis has hit so many Overs recently.....if you look at who Memphis has played its been the Lakers, Celtics, and Warriors in fact are all (Over) teams. Minnesota is going to play a half court game and this score shouldnt reach 205....the last meetings of these teams back dating a couple of years is ranging from 169 to 193.....come on 217...give me a break...under all day!
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#4
01-12-2007, 03:05 PM
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Re: 1/12 Basketball
I have 10 parlays and U 217 is in all of em , also have 200 $ on just U 217 , good luck man .
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#6
01-12-2007, 09:07 PM
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Re: 1/12 Basketball
[ QUOTE ]
This is most likely the best bet of the week.... <font color="blue">1/12 Minnesota TWolves vs Memphis Grizzlies (Under 217)</font> Minnesota averages around 90pts a game and give up around 90pts a game...this line has been lifted up due to the linesmakers realizing that Memphis has hit so many Overs recently.....if you look at who Memphis has played its been the Lakers, Celtics, and Warriors in fact are all (Over) teams. Minnesota is going to play a half court game and this score shouldnt reach 205....the last meetings of these teams back dating a couple of years is ranging from 169 to 193.....come on 217...give me a break...under all day! [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't be so sure about this. I'm out of action while I deal with the Pinny exit, but I've been doing a little curious tweaking using different ranges of data. Here are some totals I'm predicting: Using the entire season - 189 Using just the last month - 208.5 Using just the last 2 weeks - 228 Note that Memphis changed coaches about 2 weeks ago and has played to the exact opposite extreme since. You are right that they've played a few high-scoring opponents, but I'm already taking that into consideration. The most telling stat is that MEM is effectively tied for the league lead in adjusted possessions/game (DEN/GSW) since the change.
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#7
01-12-2007, 09:19 PM
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Re: 1/12 Basketball
[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ] This is most likely the best bet of the week.... <font color="blue">1/12 Minnesota TWolves vs Memphis Grizzlies (Under 217)</font> Minnesota averages around 90pts a game and give up around 90pts a game...this line has been lifted up due to the linesmakers realizing that Memphis has hit so many Overs recently.....if you look at who Memphis has played its been the Lakers, Celtics, and Warriors in fact are all (Over) teams. Minnesota is going to play a half court game and this score shouldnt reach 205....the last meetings of these teams back dating a couple of years is ranging from 169 to 193.....come on 217...give me a break...under all day! [/ QUOTE ] I wouldn't be so sure about this. I'm out of action while I deal with the Pinny exit, but I've been doing a little curious tweaking using different ranges of data. Here are some totals I'm predicting: Using the entire season - 189 Using just the last month - 208.5 Using just the last 2 weeks - 228 Note that Memphis changed coaches about 2 weeks ago and has played to the exact opposite extreme since. You are right that they've played a few high-scoring opponents, but I'm already taking that into consideration. The most telling stat is that MEM is effectively tied for the league lead in adjusted possessions/game (DEN/GSW) since the change. [/ QUOTE ] I realize the game just started, so this isn't too helpful, but I did some more hypotheticals. Using only past 2 weeks data for MEM: Using past 2 weeks for MIN: 228 Using past month for MIN: 219.5 Using season for MIN: 213.5 So basically, if you believe that the small sample MEM has played since they changed coaches is at all accurate (I think it is supported by watching them play), this wager comes entirely down to which MIN team is going to show up - the recent trending squad or the season average squad. Either way, it's not anywhere near a lock wager. Note that the game went off at 218.5, so the market felt 217 was low.
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