AA vs river c/r

marvin_1935 · #1 01-12-2007, 06:49 AM

38/11/1.5 over 213 hands
WSD/27
W$SD/38

Ultimate Bet
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $0.25./$0.50.
6 players
Converter

Stack sizes:
UTG: $52.60
Hero: $54.55
CO: $28.75
Button: $72.15
SB: $114.60
BB: $44

Pre-flop: (6 players) Hero is UTG+1 with A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls, Button folds, SB calls, BB folds.

Flop: J[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] 5[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] Q[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($5.75, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $4.5, CO folds, SB calls.

Turn: 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] ($14.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks.

River: 5[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($14.75, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $8, SB raises to $38.75, Hero calls.

Results:
Final pot: $92.25

dubber89 · #2 01-12-2007, 08:51 AM

Villain has one pair beat here 99% of the time. Aces are not strong in a showdown after betting on all streets.

Genz · #3 01-12-2007, 09:01 AM

Hero checked the turn so villain might think you are betting on air. This is a very aggressive move, though. Villains stack is very big so he might have lost proportion a little or feels like he can push anyone around. He could have a set that rivered a FH, but he could easily have QJ, Q9, J9 that all just got counterfeited. A FH probably wouldn't risk that you check through the turn AND river and thus bet out. Hero raised pf so T8 is probably too little, but not impossible. So is KT. I don't think he has a 5. You are getting 2:1 on your call so you have to be ahead once out of three times. I think I call here, because the bottom card paired and villains WSD shows that he goes to SD too often and therefore probably overvalues a lot of hands, despite the small sample size.