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Old 01-11-2007, 10:25 AM
Imrahil Imrahil is offline
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Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada
Posts: 7,500
Default 50NL 6max- Calling all-in with AKs PF with full stacks

Villain is a regular and is 18.5/13/3 over almost 400 hands. He's tag but not that great of a player. Like once he raised in the BB with QJo after the entire table limped and he only raised to like $3.

This hand happened last round:

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

MP ($8.95)
Button ($154.55)
Hero ($49.70)
BB ($52.40)
UTG ($40.15)

Preflop: Hero is SB with K[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], A[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">2 folds</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7.25</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Button folds.

Final Pot: $9.75

So on to the hand.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (4 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Button ($151.80)
Hero ($50.45)
BB ($56.10)
UTG ($40.10)

Preflop: Hero is SB with A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], K[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img].
<font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $2</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Hero raises to $7</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, <font color="#CC3333">Button raises to $151.8</font>, Hero calls $43.45 (All-In).

I was getting about 1.32 to 1 odds so I have to win about 43% of the time to break even.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

82,190,592 games 0.005 secs 16,438,118,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.143% 37.47% 08.67% 30798837 7126674.00 { AsKs }
Hand 1: 53.857% 45.19% 08.67% 37138407 7126674.00 { 88+, AQs+, AKo }


---

So I'm assuming that this is a slightly +EV call right? I think if I factor in the chance that he's possibly pushing with a marginal hand like KQs my EV goes up more.
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