Check raise river scare card against donk?

[BartHanson]

Last night 5-10NL uncapped at the bike. Villain in the hand is “That’s Alan” from L@TB, a loose passive calling station.

Villian ($1700) I cover.

Hero dealt Kh Jh UTG +1 and raises to $60. Villain calls in cutoff calls, blind calls. (Pot $180)

Flop: Jd Ts 3h

I lead for $150, villain calls. (Pot $480)

Turn: 5h

I lead for $300, villain calls. (Pot $1080)

River: Ah

My read throughout the hand is that villain is on a draw. Even though he is passive postflop he does try to represent sometimes when he misses and cannot win at showdown. Obviously he bets KQ here on the river so is it almost always correct to check this river ace? Dismiss the possibility that he ever folds KQ to a river check raise.

[BobboFitos]

with only like 1200ish and a pot of 1080 for the river normally id just shove...

but if you think he has a draw, (KQ hit so no matter what the money gets in) Q9 and 98 cant call the shove, so sure, c/push.

[Kirkrrr]

Yeah, against Alan who's capable of going completely with his reads and making huge call, just shove the river. He's NEVER laying down a straight and probably not even two pair, but he might even make a huge call with some sort of middle pair putting you on two cards that he can beat (how often he's also right on is amazing sometimes, however).

Kirk

[Triumph36]

Would he call two streets here with ace jack? I watch the show most nights but I'm not sure how he plays against you obviously. He's no longer a true station but he's certainly got station-ish tendencies - thing is, one card stations fear is the ace - somehow you have it even though your play doesn't seem to indicate it.

Would you check in this spot with QQ or KK?

CR seems fine, but with so little money left, it seems just as good to shove.

[luckychewy]

i really don't like checking here. it looks like your hand is AK or so and you're check is to try to get to showdown cause you think you can't get called by worse. at least that's what i think he would interpret a check here as, and he won't bet with anything worse than an ace. which it seems unlikely he has anything better unless he has KQ. i don't think he will call a shove here since the ace is most likely a very bad card for his range. I'd bet like $400, which also is good for meta game because u can potentially block here with AK in the future and people will have to worry about you having a bigger hand.

basically, i think his range to bet the river when you check is much narrower than his calling range if you bet it yourself, and if he has KQ or made aces up he may very well raise it himself.

[BartHanson]

[ QUOTE ]
Would he call two streets here with ace jack? I watch the show most nights but I'm not sure how he plays against you obviously. He's no longer a true station but he's certainly got station-ish tendencies - thing is, one card stations fear is the ace - somehow you have it even though your play doesn't seem to indicate it.

Would you check in this spot with QQ or KK?

CR seems fine, but with so little money left, it seems just as good to shove.

[/ QUOTE ]

Add in the fact that he will bet the river with AJ and will call a c/r. I don't see him calling an upfront shove with KJ or QJ and my read is he doesn't have one of these hands. I would never check river here if I thought it made him 2nd or 3rd pair because even though its impossible for him to win the hand he would check that down. I think I maybe forced to check here with QQ KK.

[ QUOTE ]
I'd bet like $400, which also is good for meta game because u can potentially block here with AK in the future and people will have to worry about you having a bigger hand.



[/ QUOTE ]
.
I like this line of thinking. I think a $200 weak lead may be in order inducing a bluff over the top with the scariest river card coming.

[luckychewy]

eh, i used to watch the show a lot and unless alan has drastically changed his game i don't think he is one to make a bluff raise here. especially since a lot his range is hands with reasonable showdown value which he will just call and hope to win the pot with. that's y i'd rather bet $400, but against someone like mike i think either a very small bet of $200, a check, or a shove would be superior.

[JustPlayingSmart]

I have watched every episode Alan has been on in the last few months, but have never played with him. Based on that, I think this is a shove. If Alan has KQ or AJ or AT, all the money goes in no matter what (except if you bet less than all in and he just calls with 2 pair, which is possible). So those hands are irrelevant for the analysis. If Alan has a 1 pair hand (maybe even AQ or AK for overs and a gutshot) he probably checks behind here. He would definitely call $400 or so with these hands (maybe even some smaller 1 pair hands) like every time, but he would also make a "hero" call of a shove some percent of the time.

If Alan has a missed draw, obviously checking is better, since he might do his all-in bluff missed draw move. Is it also possible Alan picked up 2 pair on the turn but is slightly scared and didn't want to raise cuz you are acting pretty strong? If so, he would probably check behind the river, but he would most likely call a shove.

Ugh, the more I think about it, the more I think a check might be okay. Since you probably check/raise here almost never, it wouldn't be a bad thing for image purposes (I assume there are enough regulars in the game that them seeing you check the nuts here might be good for the future).

The one thing I don't like is a weak lead to get Alan to bluff raise. When he was winning he had this move in his arsenal, but lately, he has been losing so much that he woudln't have the confidence to make this play.

In conclusion, I think both shoving and checking against Alan are pretty close, but checking is certainly a line that would get some regulars to go "WTF."

[BDub1]

Bart, Bart, Bart. The only hand I would check Alan on here is if I was convinced it was KQ. I think he would have raised his 2 pair or set, leaving only the str8 draw as a possibility, unless he had AQ with the Q of hearts. I think a bet of 400-600 would either get the call or the push. If you push, he can find a reason to muck.

Similar to the hand I played 3 weeks ago, where you criticized my 1200 bet on the river, instead of the shove, but it got him to push his stack. With a check, you run the risk of him happy with the pot and w/o the nuts, he is willing to showdown without a bet. A "I'm sort of weak, please don't call me bet" I think would either get an extra 400-600 out of him, or the remaining 1200 if he pushes. The checkraise on your part is trying to give Alan credit for advanced playing abilities, which I think are absent.

Take the extra bet amount, and get the rest on another hand. It is a cash game, not a tournament, no need to convince yourself to play too tricky for an extra few bucks...you know it will be getting into the pot soon.

Go ahead, flame away

[Ryanb9]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but would a blocking bet work here? If you made an obvious blocking bet I think it would induce a large raise from your opp, or at least a call.