AJ flops trip aces, passive villain makes overbet shove

tannenj · #1 01-11-2007, 01:24 AM

villain was 50/11/1.7, and had a flop aggression of 1.1 over about 150 hands. at the time of the hand, this was basically my only read and i did not know how he'd built his stack. i only lose to 99, A9, AK and AQ.

Full Tilt Poker
$1/$2 No Limit Hold'em Ring Game
6 Players
LegoPoker Hand Converter

Stack Sizes
BTN: $76.20
SB: $257.35
BB: $198
UTG: $903.15
Hero (MP): $285.45
CO: $235.50

Preflop: J[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img] ($3, 6 players)
UTG calls $2, Hero raises to $9, CO folds, BTN folds, SB folds, BB folds, UTG calls $7

Flop: A[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] A[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] 9[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img] ($21, 2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $16, UTG raises all in to $894.15, Hero...

Novles · #2 01-11-2007, 01:28 AM

ewww, [censored] gross. I think I embrace variance and call, cuz it doesn't make sense that he'd do this with something that beats us.

dchz · #3 01-11-2007, 01:30 AM

embracing the vairance is ok, this is often a flush draw, but i think you are losing htis a fair amount of time

tannenj · #4 01-11-2007, 01:32 AM

[ QUOTE ]
ewww, [censored] gross. I think I embrace variance and call, cuz it doesn't make sense that he'd do this with something that beats us.

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fair point, but villain's life doesn't make sense. his stats show that he doesn't know how to play -- that's what makes these types of decisions hard i guess.

Jeppi · #5 01-11-2007, 02:05 AM

I don't think this is 99. It could be A9 or a weaker ace than yours. This is really vilain dependent. If the flop had come T77 you would see a 7(with any kicker) a lot.

Could he be limping a better ace? I doubt it but you never know.

If he has Ax is not letting it go, so I can see him playing it like that in case you have KK and and see if you can look him up with it.

He could be playing A9 this way for the same reason. Those player don't know how to suck in the chips in the middle when they have a huge hand and there is more than 100BB in play. so it could explain why they play it like that.

This is a tough decision I think it comes down to what you have seen him done before.

It looks like he is overbetting for value. Whithout seeing any other previous vilain hands it is difficult to guess what he thinks is a good hand.

If this is a bluff he will show you for sure.

Grunch · #6 01-11-2007, 02:07 AM

This bet wants action. I think you are in an extremely marginal spot. Not saying call or fold. I actually think it's close to neutral.

Grunch · #7 01-11-2007, 02:08 AM

"this is often a flush draw,"

against this opponent, in this position, I think this is a FD close to never.

Jeppi · #8 01-11-2007, 02:30 AM

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"this is often a flush draw,"

against this opponent, in this position, I think this is a FD close to never.

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I agree with that I would rule out the FD here.

viper930 · #9 01-11-2007, 03:10 PM

[ QUOTE ]
"this is often a flush draw,"

against this opponent, in this position, I think this is a FD close to never.

[/ QUOTE ]

please explain your reasoning. I think an FD is a fair part of his range and is one of the only reasons we would be calling

AbreuTime · #10 01-11-2007, 03:54 PM

[ QUOTE ]
[ QUOTE ]
"this is often a flush draw,"

against this opponent, in this position, I think this is a FD close to never.

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please explain your reasoning. I think an FD is a fair part of his range and is one of the only reasons we would be calling

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A person with a low aggressive factor (<2) is not the type to play draws fast. He would be more likely to call with a FD, given his propensity to call over raise.

Edit: I grudgingly fold, unless I had been very active at the tables. If I had been running people over, I may call.