JJ river fold

[PokerBob]

online game. no read.

5 handed.

UTG limps, folded to me in the SB and i raise J [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]J [img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], bb folds, utg calls.

flop HU: Q [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]5 [img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]T [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]
bet, call

turn: 2 [img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img]

bet, call.

river:3 [img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img]
bet, utg now raises, i fold.

[goofball]

I think the play here is to call and whine in the chat box for a half hour afterward.

[jba]

dont think I like it, his line doesn't make a lot of sense unless it's A4.

in fact I think check/call may be better depending on the game.

[milesdyson]

Looks like the flop and turn texture combined with the super blank river and the preflop action are just about ideal conditions for inducing a bluff on the end. One minor thing against this is that you hold two cards that eliminate a bunch of straight drawing hands, but whatever.

[wrschultz]

I think this is a better spot for a check/call like miles said. As played, I think you have to call down here though.

[PokerBob]

[ QUOTE ]
dont think I like it, his line doesn't make a lot of sense unless it's A4.

in fact I think check/call may be better depending on the game.

[/ QUOTE ]

i agree his line doesn't make much sense, but i'm not sure checking the river is the play.

[mute]

Easy, easy bet. Almost as easy fold, I think. I don't think this is a bluff very often.

[milesdyson]

A UTG limper's worse hand calling range on this river will be very, very concentrated around Tx hands. Given the bet/bet/check line by hero, expect most players to put hero on a missed AK and value bet their Tx hands on the river. Of course there's a chance you miss a bet from a 5x hand from someone who would call but not bet that hand, but there are two other factors. The main one is one that happens fairly often. You bet, villain folds. Every time this would have happened, checking the river is better. The flop texture (straight and flush draws), and the fact that the turn club produced even more draws means that villain can have a folding hand pretty often. The secondary factor is not as important, but it is also necessary to discuss: you will, without a doubt, fold the best hand a non-zero percentage of the time when he raises you on the river. The times you are against a frisky opponent who will bluff raise a busted draw on the river do eat into the value of this bet.

[Thorv]

Good post and compelling arguments for checking river. PokerBob, what say you?...

[Kwaz]

I call. No way an UTG limper has the discipline to wait for the river with any hand that beats you.