#1
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2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
Villian is 28.2/23.3/4.5 over 100 or so hands. We dont really have much history and he doesn't seem like a fish. But when i bet this river what am i trying to get to call? An overpair, something like 66 or 88? Do i try to make it look like a bluff and shove? Thanks
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($409.10) UTG ($454.40) MP ($154.30) Hero ($524) SB ($288.30) Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $16, SB (poster) calls $14, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: ($52) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, SB folds, UTG calls $40. Turn: ($132) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $65</font>, UTG calls $65. River: ($262) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero ?</font> |
#2
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
looks like a weak overpair T's or J's. Bet more on turn. As played 180-200 ?
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#3
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
yeah thats what i thought but his line is really weird, check call, check call, check? I thought a 28/24/4 would be more aggros with an overpair eg bet flop bet turn etc. Thats why i thought it might be something like 88 trying to get to showdown, i obv wasn't thinking of checking but i just couldnt figure out what he had/how much to bet accordingly. The only other extremely remote possibility was some weird AK/AQdd hand that check called the flop and turned a diamond draw, but obv thats a minute part of his range.
Also, only bet 1/2 pot on turn to get random A5/A3, gutshot and overcard hands to call a bet, as the only river i really dont like is a 9, and i want him to think he may win of an Ace is he has one of those hands. |
#4
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
No way thats TT++ - he would raise for sure in some spot, his holding really looks weak (middle pair hand) - if you try to milk him for too much on the river youŽll most likely lose him.
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#5
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
id go $150
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#6
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
well this is what happened anyway
Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $ BB (5 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums) BB ($409.10) UTG ($454.40) MP ($154.30) Hero ($524) SB ($288.30) Preflop: Hero is Button with 4[img]/images/graemlins/spade.gif[/img], 4[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img]. SB posts a blind of $2. <font color="#CC3333">UTG raises to $16</font>, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>, Hero calls $16, SB (poster) calls $14, <font color="#666666">1 fold</font>. Flop: ($52) 4[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img], 2[img]/images/graemlins/club.gif[/img], 9[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(3 players)</font> SB checks, UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $40</font>, SB folds, UTG calls $40. Turn: ($132) 2[img]/images/graemlins/diamond.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $65</font>, UTG calls $65. River: ($262) 7[img]/images/graemlins/heart.gif[/img] <font color="#0000FF">(2 players)</font> UTG checks, <font color="#CC3333">Hero bets $110</font>, UTG calls $110. Final Pot: $482 Results in white below: <font color="#FFFFFF"> UTG has Qh Qc (two pair, queens and twos). Hero has 4s 4h (full house, fours full of twos). Outcome: Hero wins $482. </font> If i had known what he had would have obv bet more on the turn(like $90-$110) and prob 3/4 pot/shoved the river, just seemed really weird for him to play his hand this way. I was actually thinking he had 55-88 and was betting to try get value from them, although i spose on river he either likes his hand or doesn't (meaning hes calling any bet, including shove, or hes c/folding) so shoving i guess is the EV+ move? Cheers |
#7
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Re: 2/4 6 max PP - how much to value bet here?
it doesn't look like his hand is nearly as strong as it was and i think most of the hands he is telegraphing(which i also believe he will usually have) will fold to a standard river bet here. in general though i would bet 100 on the turn and shove the river. but given that you so vastly underbet the turn i think the river size is fine.
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